Game Recap: BOS 3, NJD 4 (OT), March 16, 2026

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Game Recap

BOS3

Final/OTMon, Mar 16, 2026Every game that night

NJD4

NJD beat BOS 4-3 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.10 expected goals to 2.26. NJD outshot BOS 34 to 22. J. Hughes led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). S. Kuraly had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. J. Markstrom stopped 19 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
BOS	2	0	1	0	3
NJD	0	2	1	1	4

1st 4:02BOSD. Pastrnak0.25 xG
1st 14:29BOSP. Zacha0.23 xG
2nd 0:32NJDC. Brown0.26 xG
2nd 8:08NJDJ. Bratt0.11 xG
3rd 2:50NJDP. Cotter0.17 xG
3rd 4:32BOSD. Pastrnak0.08 xG
OT 4:53NJDP. Cotter0.18 xG

Team Stats

BOSNJD

22Shots on goal34

2.26Expected goals3.10

45Shot attempts71

185v5 shots on goal28

0/3Power play0/2

22Hits20

19Blocked shots9

18Penalty minutes20

18Giveaways19

6Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BOS 2.26 xGNJD 3.10 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BOS22 on goal, 3 scored

NJD34 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Pastrnak	RW	2	0	2	4	2	1	+1	2	24:03	3:56
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+2	0	19:56	0:54
P. Zacha	C	1	0	1	1	2	1	-1	0	18:54	3:34
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	0	15:16	0:59
E. Lindholm	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	20:38	3:42
F. Minten	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	+2	0	18:13	1:08
M. Geekie	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	16:23	3:59
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	15:24	0:40
A. Steeves	C	0	0	0	1	6	1	0	0	11:34	0:00
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	10:50	0:00
T. Jeannot	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	10:39	0:08
M. Kastelic	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	12	8:50	0:00
C. McAvoy	D	0	1	1	2	0	3	-2	2	20:55	1:41
H. Jokiharju	D	0	1	1	0	1	3	+1	0	19:14	0:08
M. Lohrei	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	22:07	2:24
H. Lindholm	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	22:00	0:46
N. Zadorov	D	0	0	0	2	3	2	+1	0	20:07	0:08
J. Aspirot	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	2	16:15	0:03

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Korpisalo	34	30	4	.882	64:14	OT loss
J. Swayman	0	0	0	–	0:00

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Hughes	C	0	3	3	4	0	2	+2	0	24:16	2:51
C. Brown	RW	1	1	2	3	1	0	+2	2	19:50	2:51
P. Cotter	LW	2	0	2	2	3	0	+1	0	9:18	0:00
J. Bratt	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	22:38	2:51
M. Tsyplakov	RW	0	1	1	0	3	0	0	0	7:39	0:00
N. Hischier	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	2	22:03	2:48
D. Mercer	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	2	19:07	0:22
T. Meier	RW	0	0	0	4	1	1	-1	0	17:56	0:22
C. Glass	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	15:26	0:02
A. Gritsyuk	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	11:17	0:20
L. Hameenaho	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	9:16	0:00
N. Bjugstad	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	2	7:42	0:00
D. Hamilton	D	0	1	1	3	1	1	0	0	26:19	2:51
B. Dillon	D	0	1	1	0	3	1	+1	5	15:48	0:00
L. Hughes	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	22:35	0:23
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	21:31	0:02
S. Nemec	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	19:48	0:22
J. Kovacevic	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	7	16:10	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Markstrom	22	19	3	.864	64:53	Win
J. Allen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BOS

Line 1D. Pastrnak16:59M. Khusnutdinov15:47F. Minten15:01

Line 2P. Zacha13:16C. Mittelstadt13:16V. Arvidsson12:23

Line 3M. Geekie12:24E. Lindholm12:47A. Steeves11:34

Line 4S. Kuraly9:20T. Jeannot10:29M. Kastelic8:02

Pair 1N. Zadorov17:40H. Jokiharju18:04

Pair 2H. Lindholm18:09M. Lohrei16:12

Pair 3C. McAvoy16:17J. Aspirot14:55

NJD

Line 1T. Meier16:14D. Mercer16:53N. Hischier16:14

Line 2J. Bratt15:33J. Hughes17:13C. Brown14:32

Line 3C. Glass12:09A. Gritsyuk10:17L. Hameenaho9:16

Line 4P. Cotter8:21M. Tsyplakov7:39N. Bjugstad7:06

Pair 1D. Hamilton19:14J. Siegenthaler18:41

Pair 2L. Hughes17:24J. Kovacevic14:57

Pair 3B. Dillon13:01S. Nemec17:51

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownCharlie McAvoy BOS Plays near home (born in Long Beach)1 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BOS 3.1, NJD 3.2	BOS 3, NJD 4
Total goals	6.2	7
Shots on goal	BOS 26.0, NJD 31.4	BOS 22, NJD 34
Win chance	NJD 52%	NJD won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.6	4	1.29	2	42%	2
NJD J. Hughes	3.6	4	1.07	3	34%	0
NJD T. Meier	3.4	4	0.62	0	29%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	2.8	3	0.63	1	15%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.6	2	0.85	0	31%	0
BOS V. Arvidsson	2.3	0	0.57	1	22%	0
NJD A. Gritsyuk	2.3	2	0.47	0	17%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.2	2	0.85	1	24%	1
BOS M. Geekie	2.1	2	0.74	0	31%	0
NJD L. Hughes	1.9	1	0.56	0	8%	0
BOS E. Lindholm	1.8	0	0.65	0	23%	0
NJD C. Brown	1.8	3	0.57	2	19%	1
NJD D. Mercer	1.8	1	0.44	0	21%	0
BOS C. McAvoy	1.7	2	0.66	1	11%	0
NJD C. Glass	1.6	2	0.37	0	16%	0
BOS P. Zacha	1.5	1	0.63	1	20%	1
BOS H. Lindholm	1.5	1	0.36	0	6%	0
NJD S. Nemec	1.4	2	0.38	0	11%	0
BOS F. Minten	1.4	3	0.45	0	20%	0
NJD N. Bjugstad	1.4	0	0.24	0	13%	0
NJD L. Hameenaho	1.3	2	0.32	0	12%	0
BOS C. Mittelstadt	1.2	0	0.50	0	17%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	1.2	0	0.36	0	7%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.2	2	0.24	0	6%	0
BOS A. Steeves	1.0	1	0.29	0	13%	0
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	1.0	0	0.34	1	14%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.0	1	0.21	0	10%	0
BOS S. Kuraly	1.0	4	0.20	0	9%	0
BOS H. Jokiharju	1.0	0	0.21	1	3%	0
NJD M. Tsyplakov	0.9	0	0.20	1	8%	0
NJD J. Kovacevic	0.9	2	0.21	0	4%	0
BOS T. Jeannot	0.9	0	0.23	0	10%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	0.8	2	0.15	0	3%	0
NJD P. Cotter	0.7	2	0.18	2	10%	2
BOS J. Aspirot	0.7	1	0.22	0	4%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.7	0	0.20	1	4%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.