Game Recap: BOS 3, OTT 6, March 13, 2025

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Game Recap

BOS3

FinalThu, Mar 13, 2025Every game that night

OTT6

OTT beat BOS 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.89 expected goals to 2.53. D. Batherson led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). L. Ullmark stopped 22 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BOS	1	2	0	3
OTT	4	1	1	6

1st 3:44OTTS. Pinto0.07 xG
1st 9:09OTTT. Kleven0.01 xG
1st 10:57BOSC. Mittelstadt0.18 xG
1st 16:21OTTD. BathersonPP0.12 xG
1st 16:43OTTR. Greig0.07 xG
2nd 6:59BOSD. Pastrnak0.07 xG
2nd 11:01OTTD. Batherson0.37 xG
2nd 13:55BOSM. Khusnutdinov0.17 xG
3rd 18:44OTTC. GirouxEN0.62 xG

Team Stats

BOSOTT

25Shots on goal32

2.53Expected goals3.89

50Shot attempts55

195v5 shots on goal26

0/1Power play1/2

34Hits23

11Blocked shots15

6Penalty minutes4

17Giveaways8

7Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BOS 2.53 xGOTT 3.89 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BOS24 on goal, 3 scored

OTT30 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Pastrnak	RW	1	0	1	2	2	0	-2	2	22:45	1:41
M. Khusnutdinov	C	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	17:18	0:48
C. Mittelstadt	C	1	0	1	3	1	2	-2	0	17:17	1:12
E. Lindholm	C	0	1	1	0	3	0	-1	0	16:56	1:09
J. Lauko	C	0	1	1	0	3	2	0	2	13:53	0:00
V. Lettieri	C	0	1	1	2	2	0	-1	0	13:03	0:51
J. Beecher	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	2	8:24	0:00
M. Geekie	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	19:53	1:09
P. Zacha	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	19:29	0:51
C. Koepke	LW	0	0	0	2	6	0	-1	0	12:31	0:00
M. Kastelic	C	0	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	9:51	0:00
P. Brown	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	9:25	0:00
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	1	1	0	3	1	+1	0	17:18	0:00
M. Lohrei	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-4	0	24:41	1:09
A. Peeke	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	0	21:22	0:00
H. Jokiharju	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	18:51	0:19
N. Zadorov	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	17:39	0:01
I. Mitchell	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+2	0	16:50	0:50

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Swayman	15	11	4	.733	20:00	Loss
J. Korpisalo	16	15	1	.938	37:25

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Batherson	RW	2	1	3	2	5	0	+2	0	17:26	2:05
S. Pinto	C	1	1	2	3	1	0	+1	0	18:27	0:00
R. Greig	C	1	1	2	2	2	0	+1	0	18:22	1:04
T. Stützle	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	-2	0	17:57	2:08
M. Amadio	RW	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	0	16:36	0:00
C. Giroux	RW	1	0	1	2	2	1	0	0	16:04	1:05
D. Cozens	C	0	1	1	4	2	1	+3	0	15:35	2:06
B. Tkachuk	LW	0	1	1	2	3	0	-1	0	14:16	2:04
D. Perron	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	+1	0	16:00	0:55
M. Highmore	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	10:21	0:00
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	9:30	1:03
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	8:13	0:00
T. Chabot	D	0	1	1	3	3	2	0	0	22:48	0:56
T. Kleven	D	1	0	1	3	1	1	0	0	15:36	0:00
N. Matinpalo	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	12:41	0:00
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	+2	0	22:26	0:06
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	22:00	0:00
J. Sanderson	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+2	2	21:42	2:13

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	25	22	3	.880	60:00	Win
A. Forsberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamLinus Ullmark OTT Faces BOS, his team until May 202422 saves on 25, the win

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BOS 2.9, OTT 2.9	BOS 3, OTT 6
Total goals	5.8	9
Shots on goal	BOS 27.2, OTT 29.9	BOS 25, OTT 32
Win chance	BOS 50%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	4.1	2	1.19	1	42%	1
OTT B. Tkachuk	4.0	2	0.83	1	32%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.2	1	0.98	1	28%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	2.1	2	0.57	0	8%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.1	2	0.72	3	23%	2
OTT D. Cozens	2.1	4	0.54	1	20%	0
OTT T. Chabot	2.1	3	0.48	1	9%	0
OTT S. Pinto	2.0	3	0.50	2	21%	1
BOS M. Geekie	1.9	3	0.58	0	25%	0
BOS E. Lindholm	1.9	0	0.56	1	22%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.8	2	0.68	1	22%	1
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.8	0	0.41	0	17%	0
OTT D. Perron	1.8	2	0.54	0	21%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.7	2	0.43	2	19%	1
BOS P. Zacha	1.7	3	0.66	0	21%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.4	0	0.43	1	20%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.4	2	0.30	0	10%	0
BOS V. Lettieri	1.4	2	0.25	1	14%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	1.3	3	0.45	0	8%	0
BOS C. Koepke	1.2	2	0.24	0	14%	0
BOS C. Mittelstadt	1.2	3	0.53	1	16%	1
OTT N. Matinpalo	1.1	2	0.05	1	2%	0
OTT A. Gaudette	1.1	1	0.26	0	13%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.1	0	0.27	0	6%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.1	0	0.21	0	10%	0
BOS A. Peeke	1.1	3	0.22	0	4%	0
OTT M. Highmore	1.0	1	0.20	0	8%	0
OTT N. Jensen	0.9	2	0.25	0	4%	0
BOS H. Jokiharju	0.9	1	0.18	0	4%	0
BOS P. Wotherspoon	0.8	0	0.15	1	2%	0
BOS P. Brown	0.8	0	0.17	0	7%	0
BOS J. Lauko	0.8	0	0.20	1	9%	0
OTT T. Kleven	0.8	3	0.10	1	3%	1
BOS I. Mitchell	0.7	0	0.18	0	3%	0
BOS J. Beecher	0.6	0	0.17	1	9%	0
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	0.6	1	0.18	1	8%	1

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.