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Game Recap
BOS1
PHI3
PHI beat BOS 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 2.84 expected goals to 2.04. BOS outshot PHI 27 to 17. T. Konecny led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). H. Lindholm had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. D. Vladar stopped 26 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
- 3rd 3:41PHIT. Konecny0.28 xG
- 3rd 11:55PHIJ. Drysdale0.16 xG
- 3rd 13:03BOSC. McAvoy0.06 xG
- 3rd 19:07PHIS. CouturierEN0.55 xG
Team Stats
BOSPHI
27Shots on goal17
2.04Expected goals2.84
56Shot attempts51
195v5 shots on goal13
0/3Power play0/2
25Hits29
21Blocked shots14
9Penalty minutes11
10Giveaways17
2Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BOS 2.04 xGPHI 2.84 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:27 | 4:39 |
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 24:29 | 5:17 |
| M. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 23:09 | 4:49 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:57 | 4:46 |
| F. Minten | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 15:48 | 1:22 |
| V. Arvidsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:50 | 1:10 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:33 | 1:15 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:57 | 0:00 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:56 | 0:00 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:41 | 0:00 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:17 | 0:00 |
| T. Jeannot | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9:15 | 0:00 |
| C. McAvoy | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 26:47 | 4:33 |
| H. Lindholm | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:47 | 1:27 |
| H. Jokiharju | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 18:15 | 0:00 |
| J. Aspirot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17:34 | 0:00 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15:55 | 0:42 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 14:24 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 16 | 14 | 2 | .875 | 58:59 | Loss |
| J. Korpisalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Konecny | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 20:04 | 2:31 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:21 | 2:27 |
| S. Couturier | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:20 | 0:59 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:31 | 1:29 |
| T. Zegras | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:26 | 2:30 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:20 | 1:28 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:08 | 1:33 |
| B. Brink | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:46 | 2:31 |
| N. Grebenkin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:37 | 0:00 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:26 | 0:00 |
| C. Grundstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:37 | 0:00 |
| N. Deslauriers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6:38 | 0:00 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:28 | 2:29 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 25:57 | 0:32 |
| R. Ristolainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 23:04 | 0:00 |
| C. York | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 19:15 | 1:31 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:21 | 0:00 |
| E. Andrae | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:53 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
BOS
Line 1E. Lindholm16:09D. Pastrnak18:07M. Geekie17:07
Line 2C. Mittelstadt13:18V. Arvidsson12:39P. Zacha11:10
Line 3F. Minten13:45M. Eyssimont9:44M. Khusnutdinov9:53
Line 4T. Jeannot8:10M. Kastelic8:23S. Kuraly7:55
Pair 1N. Zadorov13:51H. Jokiharju16:45
Pair 2C. McAvoy19:10J. Aspirot15:39
Pair 3H. Lindholm17:09M. Lohrei15:01
PHI
Line 1T. Konecny16:08T. Zegras14:06C. Dvorak12:19
Line 2S. Couturier16:46O. Tippett13:57N. Grebenkin11:25
Line 3B. Brink13:15M. Michkov14:35N. Cates12:53
Line 4N. Deslauriers6:38C. Grundstrom6:59G. Hathaway6:55
Pair 1T. Sanheim19:50R. Ristolainen18:48
Pair 3C. York14:59J. Drysdale14:40
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BOS 3.2, PHI 3.0 | BOS 1, PHI 3 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | BOS 24.5, PHI 28.3 | BOS 27, PHI 17 |
| Win chance | BOS 53% | PHI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 3.5 | 2 | 1.42 | 0 | 43% | 0 |
| PHI O. Tippett | 2.7 | 2 | 0.61 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 2.5 | 4 | 0.98 | 2 | 31% | 1 |
| BOS V. Arvidsson | 2.4 | 2 | 0.62 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 2.3 | 1 | 0.61 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| PHI T. Zegras | 2.2 | 1 | 0.78 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| PHI C. Dvorak | 2.2 | 1 | 0.70 | 2 | 22% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 2.0 | 5 | 0.84 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 1.8 | 2 | 0.48 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.7 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.6 | 0 | 0.49 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.6 | 1 | 0.68 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| PHI R. Ristolainen | 1.6 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS C. McAvoy | 1.5 | 3 | 0.65 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| PHI C. Grundstrom | 1.5 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BOS H. Lindholm | 1.5 | 5 | 0.42 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS M. Eyssimont | 1.4 | 3 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PHI C. York | 1.4 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS F. Minten | 1.4 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.4 | 1 | 0.44 | 2 | 9% | 1 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.3 | 1 | 0.59 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.3 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS C. Mittelstadt | 1.2 | 0 | 0.57 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BOS S. Kuraly | 1.1 | 3 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.1 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 1.0 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BOS T. Jeannot | 1.0 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS M. Khusnutdinov | 1.0 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BOS H. Jokiharju | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PHI N. Deslauriers | 0.8 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PHI N. Grebenkin | 0.8 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 0.7 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PHI E. Andrae | 0.6 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| BOS J. Aspirot | 0.6 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.