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Game Recap
BOS1
PHI2
PHI beat BOS 2-1 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 2.85 expected goals to 1.92. PHI outshot BOS 31 to 19. P. Martone led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). D. Vladar stopped 18 of 19.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| PHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 4:19PHIC. Dvorak0.16 xG
- 3rd 0:35BOSP. ZachaPP0.42 xG
- OT 2:31PHIP. MartonePP0.25 xG
Team Stats
BOSPHI
19Shots on goal31
1.92Expected goals2.85
48Shot attempts56
155v5 shots on goal21
1/1Power play1/5
19Hits21
12Blocked shots14
12Penalty minutes4
18Giveaways8
4Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BOS 1.92 xGPHI 2.85 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 21:39 | 1:10 |
| P. Zacha | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:38 | 1:10 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:18 | 1:10 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:06 | 0:00 |
| M. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 18:57 | 0:00 |
| F. Minten | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:08 | 0:00 |
| V. Arvidsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:27 | 1:10 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:46 | 0:00 |
| L. Reichel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:45 | 0:00 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:20 | 0:00 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:04 | 0:00 |
| T. Jeannot | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:52 | 0:00 |
| C. McAvoy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 25:39 | 1:10 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:54 | 0:00 |
| H. Lindholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:47 | 0:00 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:57 | 0:00 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 16:16 | 0:00 |
| J. Aspirot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:00 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Korpisalo | 31 | 29 | 2 | .935 | 62:31 | OT loss |
| J. Swayman | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Dvorak | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:04 | 3:29 |
| P. Martone | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:12 | 2:45 |
| T. Zegras | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:00 | 3:24 |
| T. Foerster | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:27 | 3:27 |
| T. Konecny | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:11 | 3:35 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:02 | 2:24 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:41 | 2:32 |
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:52 | 0:18 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:35 | 2:30 |
| A. Bump | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:42 | 0:11 |
| C. Grundstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:57 | 0:00 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:43 | 0:00 |
| R. Ristolainen | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:47 | 3:33 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 25:52 | 0:26 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:15 | 3:09 |
| C. York | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20:43 | 0:00 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13:56 | 0:00 |
| E. Andrae | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:01 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
BOS
Line 1D. Pastrnak19:05M. Geekie18:10E. Lindholm16:27
Line 2V. Arvidsson12:35C. Mittelstadt11:54P. Zacha12:24
Line 3F. Minten12:39M. Khusnutdinov11:24L. Reichel11:45
Line 4S. Kuraly9:06T. Jeannot8:29M. Kastelic7:46
Pair 1A. Peeke18:23N. Zadorov18:17
Pair 2C. McAvoy19:12J. Aspirot14:44
Pair 3H. Lindholm16:13M. Lohrei15:37
PHI
Line 1T. Konecny14:02P. Martone14:27C. Dvorak14:24
Line 2T. Foerster13:13T. Zegras14:26O. Tippett13:07
Line 3A. Bump11:31M. Michkov13:41N. Cates10:28
Line 4S. Couturier12:24C. Grundstrom10:57L. Glendening9:33
Pair 1R. Ristolainen19:14T. Sanheim21:58
Pair 2C. York17:25J. Drysdale17:37
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BOS 3.0, PHI 3.1 | BOS 1, PHI 2 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | BOS 24.1, PHI 28.0 | BOS 19, PHI 31 |
| Win chance | PHI 52% | PHI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 3.2 | 4 | 1.25 | 1 | 40% | 0 |
| PHI O. Tippett | 3.1 | 2 | 0.69 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 2.4 | 2 | 0.90 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| BOS V. Arvidsson | 2.2 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 2.0 | 2 | 0.63 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| PHI T. Zegras | 2.0 | 2 | 0.74 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| PHI C. Dvorak | 2.0 | 1 | 0.64 | 2 | 21% | 1 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 1.9 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 1.8 | 2 | 0.67 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| PHI R. Ristolainen | 1.6 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 1.6 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BOS C. McAvoy | 1.6 | 2 | 0.65 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.6 | 4 | 0.57 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.6 | 0 | 0.58 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| BOS F. Minten | 1.5 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| PHI C. Grundstrom | 1.5 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.4 | 1 | 0.63 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| PHI A. Bump | 1.3 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.3 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.3 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS H. Lindholm | 1.2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PHI C. York | 1.2 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BOS S. Kuraly | 1.1 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS C. Mittelstadt | 1.1 | 1 | 0.54 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.0 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BOS M. Khusnutdinov | 0.9 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PHI L. Glendening | 0.9 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 0.9 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BOS L. Reichel | 0.8 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS T. Jeannot | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS J. Aspirot | 0.7 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PHI E. Andrae | 0.6 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 31 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.