Game Recap: BOS 4, PIT 5 (OT), March 8, 2026

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Game Recap

BOS4

Final/OTSun, Mar 8, 2026Every game that night

PIT5

PIT beat BOS 5-4 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.29 expected goals to 2.44. PIT outshot BOS 40 to 28. P. Zacha scored three for BOS. E. Karlsson had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. A. Silovs stopped 24 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
BOS	1	2	1	0	4
PIT	0	1	3	1	5

1st 9:27BOSP. ZachaPP0.16 xG
2nd 8:47BOSP. Zacha0.07 xG
2nd 12:23BOSD. Pastrnak0.08 xG
2nd 14:44PITE. ChinakhovPP0.09 xG
3rd 6:02PITC. Dewar0.06 xG
3rd 6:35PITA. Mantha0.07 xG
3rd 8:34BOSP. Zacha0.14 xG
3rd 11:18PITA. Mantha0.02 xG
OT 0:17PITT. Novak0.18 xG

Team Stats

BOSPIT

28Shots on goal40

2.44Expected goals3.29

55Shot attempts74

185v5 shots on goal34

1/3Power play1/2

17Hits24

16Blocked shots13

6Penalty minutes8

16Giveaways18

5Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BOS 2.44 xGPIT 3.29 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BOS27 on goal, 4 scored

PIT39 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Zacha	C	3	0	3	4	0	0	0	0	16:59	4:06
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	2	2	1	0	1	+1	0	14:34	1:37
D. Pastrnak	RW	1	0	1	4	0	0	-1	0	21:25	4:42
M. Geekie	C	0	1	1	4	1	1	0	0	19:08	4:42
E. Lindholm	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	19:35	4:12
F. Minten	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	17:56	1:43
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	15:00	1:07
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	13:11	0:00
M. Eyssimont	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	2	11:51	0:00
T. Jeannot	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	11:03	0:00
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	9:37	0:00
M. Kastelic	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	0	9:37	0:00
J. Aspirot	D	0	2	2	1	2	1	-1	2	14:25	0:00
C. McAvoy	D	0	1	1	3	1	3	-2	0	24:26	4:42
H. Lindholm	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	2	22:04	1:07
N. Zadorov	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	-1	0	20:02	0:00
M. Lohrei	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	0	18:21	1:07
A. Peeke	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	16:37	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Korpisalo	40	35	5	.875	60:17	OT loss
J. Swayman	0	0	0	–	0:00

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Novak	C	1	1	2	1	0	0	+4	0	15:23	0:42
A. Mantha	RW	2	0	2	2	2	0	+1	0	15:14	1:51
E. Chinakhov	RW	1	0	1	3	0	1	+1	2	16:18	1:15
R. Rakell	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	15:56	1:02
C. Dewar	C	1	0	1	4	4	1	+1	0	15:48	0:00
B. Rust	RW	0	0	0	5	1	1	0	0	19:12	1:00
B. Lizotte	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	15:52	0:00
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	4	2	1	-1	0	14:59	0:00
V. Koivunen	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+3	0	14:04	1:09
B. Kindel	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	11:47	1:20
E. Soderblom	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	-2	0	10:21	1:07
A. Hayes	RW	0	0	0	3	1	1	-2	0	9:34	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	0	2	2	6	0	0	+1	0	24:20	1:00
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	1	1	1	3	1	0	2	21:19	0:02
R. Shea	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	19:52	0:00
I. Solovyov	D	0	1	1	2	1	4	0	2	14:12	0:00
K. Letang	D	0	0	0	1	4	1	-1	2	20:47	1:22
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	18:04	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Silovs	28	24	4	.857	60:17	Win
S. Skinner	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BOS

Line 1E. Lindholm13:35D. Pastrnak15:23M. Khusnutdinov12:49

Line 2V. Arvidsson12:47C. Mittelstadt13:53P. Zacha12:36

Line 3F. Minten14:32M. Geekie13:24M. Eyssimont11:51

Line 4S. Kuraly8:59T. Jeannot10:24M. Kastelic8:55

Pair 1H. Lindholm19:45M. Lohrei16:41

Pair 2N. Zadorov17:50A. Peeke15:36

Pair 3C. McAvoy16:21J. Aspirot13:44

PIT

Line 1B. Rust14:23E. Chinakhov14:03R. Rakell14:25

Line 2A. Mantha13:23T. Novak13:16V. Koivunen12:55

Line 3C. Dewar12:42N. Acciari12:19B. Lizotte12:39

Line 4A. Hayes9:27B. Kindel10:04E. Soderblom9:14

Pair 1P. Wotherspoon18:59E. Karlsson19:15

Pair 2K. Letang17:29R. Shea15:48

Pair 3S. Girard15:23I. Solovyov13:21

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BOS 2.9, PIT 3.4	BOS 4, PIT 5
Total goals	6.3	9
Shots on goal	BOS 24.5, PIT 30.9	BOS 28, PIT 40
Win chance	PIT 57%	PIT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.4	4	1.18	1	39%	1
PIT R. Rakell	2.8	1	0.79	1	29%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.8	5	0.87	0	32%	0
PIT E. Chinakhov	2.5	3	0.60	1	24%	1
BOS V. Arvidsson	2.4	1	0.55	2	22%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.2	6	0.73	2	14%	0
PIT B. Kindel	2.1	1	0.48	0	20%	0
BOS M. Geekie	2.1	4	0.72	1	30%	0
PIT A. Mantha	2.0	2	0.72	2	26%	2
PIT T. Novak	1.8	1	0.57	2	21%	1
BOS E. Lindholm	1.8	1	0.63	0	22%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.7	1	0.46	0	9%	0
BOS C. McAvoy	1.6	3	0.64	1	11%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.6	4	0.35	1	15%	1
BOS H. Lindholm	1.5	0	0.39	0	8%	0
BOS M. Eyssimont	1.5	3	0.22	0	10%	0
BOS F. Minten	1.4	0	0.45	0	19%	0
PIT A. Hayes	1.4	3	0.28	0	14%	0
BOS P. Zacha	1.4	4	0.56	3	18%	3
PIT N. Acciari	1.3	4	0.24	0	12%	0
BOS S. Kuraly	1.2	0	0.23	0	10%	0
BOS C. Mittelstadt	1.2	1	0.50	0	17%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.1	0	0.24	0	12%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.1	2	0.26	0	7%	0
PIT E. Soderblom	1.1	3	0.20	0	10%	0
PIT V. Koivunen	1.1	0	0.25	0	8%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	1.1	2	0.39	0	15%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	1.0	1	0.32	0	7%	0
BOS T. Jeannot	1.0	0	0.26	0	11%	0
PIT S. Girard	1.0	1	0.30	0	5%	0
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	1.0	2	0.33	0	14%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.9	0	0.29	1	6%	0
BOS A. Peeke	0.9	1	0.18	0	4%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	0.9	1	0.23	1	3%	0
PIT I. Solovyov	0.8	2	0.26	1	3%	0
BOS J. Aspirot	0.6	1	0.20	2	5%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.