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Game Recap
BOS1
TBL4
TBL beat BOS 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 5.02 expected goals to 2.11. B. Hagel led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). B. Hagel had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 27 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| TBL | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
- 2nd 14:07TBLA. CirelliSH0.17 xG
- 2nd 19:10TBLM. Eyssimont0.08 xG
- 3rd 2:05BOSM. Lohrei0.14 xG
- 3rd 18:28TBLB. HagelEN0.54 xG
- 3rd 19:24TBLB. PointPP0.19 xG
Team Stats
BOSTBL
28Shots on goal31
2.11Expected goals5.02
62Shot attempts69
265v5 shots on goal24
0/2Power play1/4
35Hits24
20Blocked shots13
27Penalty minutes24
15Giveaways15
4Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BOS 2.11 xGTBL 5.02 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Marchand | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:18 | 1:09 |
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:20 | 0:51 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:17 | 1:09 |
| M. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:40 | 0:51 |
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 4 | 17:31 | 0:51 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:42 | 1:09 |
| T. Frederic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:03 | 0:00 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 12 | 12:59 | 0:54 |
| J. Beecher | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:52 | 0:03 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:39 | 0:03 |
| O. Wahlstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:27 | 1:06 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 8:05 | 0:00 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 18:47 | 0:51 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17:50 | 0:00 |
| C. McAvoy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 25:08 | 1:08 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 22:12 | 0:03 |
| P. Wotherspoon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:15 | 0:03 |
| B. Carlo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:58 | 0:04 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 30 | 27 | 3 | .900 | 58:50 | Loss |
| J. Korpisalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Hagel | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 24:45 | 4:42 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:49 | 5:28 |
| B. Point | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:38 | 5:23 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:51 | 0:44 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:14 | 0:39 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:44 | 0:00 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:47 | 5:25 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:36 | 0:59 |
| C. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:25 | 1:03 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:05 | 0:00 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:04 | 0:00 |
| C. Atkinson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:28 | 0:00 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 21:37 | 0:02 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 22:36 | 4:21 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 19:49 | 0:02 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:25 | 1:47 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 16:31 | 0:00 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:09 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 28 | 27 | 1 | .964 | 59:24 | Win |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BOS 3.0, TBL 3.2 | BOS 1, TBL 4 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | BOS 27.7, TBL 28.8 | BOS 28, TBL 31 |
| Win chance | TBL 55% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 3.9 | 5 | 1.04 | 0 | 39% | 0 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.2 | 3 | 1.51 | 2 | 34% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.8 | 2 | 0.99 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.6 | 2 | 1.12 | 1 | 40% | 1 |
| BOS B. Marchand | 2.5 | 2 | 0.74 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.4 | 9 | 0.94 | 2 | 30% | 1 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.1 | 1 | 0.73 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 1.9 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| TBL M. Eyssimont | 1.8 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.8 | 2 | 0.62 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.7 | 1 | 0.61 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.7 | 0 | 0.50 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| BOS C. McAvoy | 1.7 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.7 | 4 | 0.54 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| BOS J. Brazeau | 1.6 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| BOS O. Wahlstrom | 1.5 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS T. Frederic | 1.5 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BOS C. Coyle | 1.4 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.3 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.3 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.1 | 3 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL C. Atkinson | 1.1 | 3 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL C. Geekie | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 1.1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.1 | 0 | 0.30 | 2 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS B. Carlo | 1.1 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 1.0 | 1 | 0.35 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 1.0 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 1.0 | 0 | 0.17 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 0.9 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS C. Koepke | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS P. Wotherspoon | 0.9 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.8 | 2 | 0.21 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.8 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.7 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS J. Beecher | 0.7 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.