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Game Recap
BOS4
TBL0
BOS beat TBL 4-0, with the chances close: 2.35 expected goals to 2.62. C. Koepke led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). B. Hagel had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. J. Swayman stopped 25 of 25.
Team Stats
BOSTBL
25Shots on goal25
2.35Expected goals2.62
57Shot attempts62
245v5 shots on goal20
0/1Power play0/2
35Hits21
23Blocked shots20
9Penalty minutes7
13Giveaways16
3Takeaways1
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BOS 2.35 xGTBL 2.62 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Koepke | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 14:22 | 0:00 |
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:50 | 1:37 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 17:55 | 1:31 |
| P. Brown | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 12:39 | 0:00 |
| J. Beecher | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 12:07 | 0:00 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 7 | 11:17 | 0:00 |
| M. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:29 | 1:35 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:13 | 0:32 |
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:43 | 1:28 |
| V. Lettieri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 14:06 | 0:25 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:15 | 0:29 |
| J. Lauko | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:24 | 0:00 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:31 | 0:02 |
| I. Mitchell | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 14:46 | 0:14 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 23:54 | 1:44 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:48 | 0:00 |
| P. Wotherspoon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 19:03 | 0:00 |
| H. Jokiharju | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:38 | 0:23 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 25 | 25 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Korpisalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 20:04 | 1:30 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 20:00 | 1:32 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:14 | 2:28 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:10 | 2:30 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:08 | 1:30 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 17:16 | 2:30 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:40 | 2:29 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:16 | 1:23 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 11:34 | 0:00 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:13 | 0:00 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:44 | 0:00 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:41 | 0:00 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 21:26 | 2:19 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:54 | 1:41 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:45 | 0:00 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 5 | 18:12 | 0:00 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:11 | 0:08 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:09 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 24 | 21 | 3 | .875 | 59:23 | Loss |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BOS 2.8, TBL 3.3 | BOS 4, TBL 0 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | BOS 27.0, TBL 29.6 | BOS 25, TBL 25 |
| Win chance | TBL 59% | BOS won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 4.2 | 4 | 1.12 | 1 | 41% | 0 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.2 | 3 | 1.48 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.8 | 2 | 0.99 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.6 | 6 | 0.96 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.6 | 2 | 1.02 | 0 | 38% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 2.1 | 0 | 0.57 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 2.1 | 2 | 0.54 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| TBL O. Bjorkstrand | 1.9 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.9 | 1 | 0.62 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.8 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.7 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.5 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.5 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 1.4 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.3 | 3 | 0.27 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.3 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS V. Lettieri | 1.2 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.2 | 1 | 0.19 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| BOS C. Mittelstadt | 1.2 | 1 | 0.45 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| BOS C. Koepke | 1.2 | 2 | 0.19 | 2 | 11% | 2 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 1.1 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.0 | 3 | 0.33 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 1.0 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BOS P. Wotherspoon | 0.9 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BOS H. Jokiharju | 0.8 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS P. Brown | 0.8 | 2 | 0.15 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| BOS J. Lauko | 0.8 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.8 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 0.7 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BOS J. Beecher | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.7 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
| BOS I. Mitchell | 0.6 | 3 | 0.16 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| BOS M. Khusnutdinov | 0.6 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.