Game Recap: BOS 5, TBL 6 (SO), February 1, 2026

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Game Recap

BOS5

Final/SOSun, Feb 1, 2026Every game that night

TBL6

TBL beat BOS 6-5 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 5.45 expected goals to 3.42. TBL outshot BOS 46 to 34. N. Kucherov led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). N. Kucherov had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 29 of 34.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
BOS	3	2	0	0	5
TBL	1	3	1	1	6

1st 0:11TBLB. Hagel0.18 xG
1st 11:24BOSA. Steeves0.25 xG
1st 15:36BOSM. Geekie0.08 xG
1st 18:03BOSV. ArvidssonPP0.09 xG
2nd 2:22BOSM. Poitras0.15 xG
2nd 8:18BOSM. Geekie0.21 xG
2nd 10:28TBLO. BjorkstrandPP0.25 xG
2nd 15:50TBLD. RaddyshPP0.13 xG
2nd 16:13TBLN. PaulPP0.19 xG
3rd 11:50TBLN. Kucherov0.02 xG

Team Stats

BOSTBL

34Shots on goal46

3.42Expected goals5.45

55Shot attempts82

265v5 shots on goal23

1/3Power play3/8

20Hits22

19Blocked shots12

16Penalty minutes8

14Giveaways19

2Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BOS 3.42 xGTBL 5.45 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BOS33 on goal, 5 scored

TBL45 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Geekie	C	2	1	3	3	1	1	+2	0	18:43	2:43
D. Pastrnak	RW	0	1	1	5	0	0	+2	2	23:10	3:10
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	+2	0	20:07	0:51
M. Kastelic	C	0	1	1	2	7	2	+1	2	14:35	0:00
V. Arvidsson	LW	1	0	1	5	0	1	-1	2	14:02	2:22
M. Poitras	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	11:48	0:00
A. Steeves	C	1	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	8:02	0:03
M. Eyssimont	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	7:38	0:00
F. Minten	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	18:32	2:20
T. Jeannot	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	2	15:24	0:00
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	13:58	0:53
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	2	13:11	0:00
C. McAvoy	D	0	2	2	1	1	3	+2	4	30:19	2:24
J. Aspirot	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	+2	0	17:09	0:00
H. Lindholm	D	0	0	0	2	0	4	-1	2	25:50	0:49
N. Zadorov	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	+1	0	22:10	0:00
M. Lohrei	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	16:28	0:30
A. Peeke	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	0	14:18	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Swayman	46	41	5	.891	65:00	OT loss
J. Korpisalo	0	0	0	–	0:00

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kucherov	RW	1	3	4	8	3	0	+1	0	28:13	9:38
B. Hagel	LW	1	2	3	6	3	2	+1	2	27:37	7:11
J. Guentzel	C	0	2	2	3	2	0	0	2	27:40	9:33
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	1	0	1	4	2	1	-1	0	11:43	2:28
N. Paul	LW	1	0	1	2	1	1	-2	0	10:23	4:06
Y. Gourde	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	19:40	0:14
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	2	19:19	0:00
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	0	17:21	0:00
D. James	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	2	13:41	0:36
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	12:22	1:59
A. Cirelli	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	6:25	0:05
D. Raddysh	D	1	1	2	7	0	1	-1	0	29:38	9:38
E. Cernak	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	0	15:40	0:00
R. McDonagh	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	14:32	0:00
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	24:21	0:05
M. Crozier	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	13:36	0:00
D. Carlile	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:18	0:00
V. Hedman	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	10:18	0:13

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	34	29	5	.853	64:59	Win
J. Johansson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BOS

Line 1D. Pastrnak16:27M. Geekie15:12M. Khusnutdinov14:46

Line 2F. Minten12:52C. Mittelstadt12:21V. Arvidsson11:40

Line 3T. Jeannot12:15M. Kastelic11:33M. Poitras11:48

Line 4S. Kuraly8:25M. Eyssimont7:38A. Steeves7:59

Pair 1C. McAvoy19:30J. Aspirot16:03

Pair 2N. Zadorov15:29A. Peeke13:41

Pair 3H. Lindholm16:05M. Lohrei14:31

TBL

Line 1Y. Gourde17:16P. Holmberg18:26Z. Girgensons16:15

Line 2N. Kucherov16:30B. Hagel16:36J. Guentzel16:10

Line 3D. James13:05G. Goncalves9:58O. Bjorkstrand9:15

Pair 1D. Raddysh18:25J. Moser20:02

Pair 2R. McDonagh11:56E. Cernak13:49

Pair 3M. Crozier11:50D. Carlile10:11

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamTanner Jeannot BOS Faces TBL, his team until Apr 20242 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BOS 2.8, TBL 3.6	BOS 5, TBL 6
Total goals	6.4	11
Shots on goal	BOS 24.1, TBL 29.8	BOS 34, TBL 46
Win chance	TBL 64%	TBL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.3	5	1.07	1	37%	0
TBL B. Hagel	3.0	6	1.13	3	35%	1
TBL N. Kucherov	2.9	8	1.56	4	35%	1
TBL J. Guentzel	2.6	3	1.02	2	36%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	2.5	7	0.91	2	16%	1
BOS V. Arvidsson	2.2	5	0.44	1	19%	1
BOS M. Geekie	1.9	3	0.62	3	27%	2
TBL A. Cirelli	1.8	2	0.62	0	22%	0
TBL O. Bjorkstrand	1.7	4	0.59	1	21%	1
BOS C. McAvoy	1.6	1	0.51	2	9%	0
TBL Y. Gourde	1.6	0	0.51	0	16%	0
TBL P. Holmberg	1.4	2	0.35	0	15%	0
BOS H. Lindholm	1.4	2	0.29	0	6%	0
TBL V. Hedman	1.4	2	0.57	0	9%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.4	1	0.36	0	7%	0
TBL N. Paul	1.4	2	0.34	1	16%	1
TBL M. Crozier	1.3	2	0.27	0	4%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.3	1	0.25	0	12%	0
TBL D. James	1.3	3	0.35	0	14%	0
BOS M. Eyssimont	1.3	2	0.16	1	8%	0
BOS F. Minten	1.2	2	0.40	0	17%	0
BOS S. Kuraly	1.2	3	0.23	0	10%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.2	1	0.25	0	7%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.1	2	0.21	1	11%	0
BOS C. Mittelstadt	1.1	1	0.42	0	15%	0
BOS M. Poitras	1.0	2	0.32	1	10%	1
BOS A. Steeves	1.0	1	0.26	1	13%	1
BOS M. Lohrei	1.0	0	0.29	0	6%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	1.0	1	0.37	1	5%	0
BOS A. Peeke	1.0	0	0.16	0	4%	0
TBL D. Carlile	0.9	1	0.15	0	5%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	0.9	1	0.35	0	12%	0
BOS T. Jeannot	0.9	2	0.23	0	10%	0
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	0.9	2	0.30	1	13%	0
TBL E. Cernak	0.8	0	0.20	1	3%	0
BOS J. Aspirot	0.7	0	0.16	1	5%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.7 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.