Game Recap: BOS 1, TBL 3, April 4, 2026

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Game Recap

BOS1

FinalSat, Apr 4, 2026Every game that night

TBL3

TBL beat BOS 3-1, with the chances close: 3.08 expected goals to 2.53. N. Paul had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 21 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BOS	0	1	0	1
TBL	0	0	3	3

2nd 6:47BOSC. Mittelstadt0.24 xG
3rd 2:13TBLC. D'Astous0.35 xG
3rd 14:29TBLD. Raddysh0.03 xG
3rd 18:27TBLN. KucherovEN0.82 xG

Team Stats

BOSTBL

22Shots on goal23

2.53Expected goals3.08

59Shot attempts47

165v5 shots on goal18

0/4Power play0/1

11Hits20

14Blocked shots13

2Penalty minutes8

15Giveaways11

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BOS 2.53 xGTBL 3.08 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BOS22 on goal, 1 scored

TBL23 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Mittelstadt	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	-1	0	16:18	2:58
P. Zacha	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	16:05	3:18
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	1	1	3	0	1	-2	0	15:57	3:53
D. Pastrnak	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	21:43	5:49
F. Minten	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	2	19:04	4:04
M. Geekie	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	17:29	4:33
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:57	1:54
E. Lindholm	C	0	0	0	2	1	3	-2	0	16:16	3:32
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:04	0:31
M. Eyssimont	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	12:00	0:03
T. Jeannot	LW	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	11:28	0:28
M. Kastelic	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:01	0:08
C. McAvoy	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	-1	0	24:19	4:48
N. Zadorov	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	20:19	0:35
H. Lindholm	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	19:01	3:08
A. Peeke	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	17:52	0:15
J. Aspirot	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:37	0:00
J. Harris	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	14:14	0:03

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Swayman	22	20	2	.909	59:16	Loss
J. Korpisalo	0	0	0	–	0:00

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Guentzel	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	21:05	1:25
N. Kucherov	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	16:58	2:00
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	10:19	1:25
Y. Gourde	C	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	17:04	0:00
A. Cirelli	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	+3	0	17:01	0:00
B. Point	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	16:56	0:52
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	14:46	0:00
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	14:14	0:35
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:54	1:08
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	13:20	0:00
M. Chaffee	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:39	0:00
N. Paul	LW	0	0	0	4	4	0	-1	0	9:08	0:35
J. Moser	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	21:42	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	1	0	1	1	1	3	0	2	20:41	1:25
C. D'Astous	D	1	0	1	3	2	0	+1	4	19:13	0:35
R. McDonagh	D	0	1	1	0	0	3	+1	0	17:08	0:00
E. Lilleberg	D	0	0	0	1	5	0	+1	0	21:25	0:00
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	17:27	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	22	21	1	.955	60:00	Win
J. Johansson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BOS

Line 1M. Khusnutdinov14:12F. Minten15:00D. Pastrnak15:10

Line 2P. Zacha12:03C. Mittelstadt13:20V. Arvidsson11:20

Line 3E. Lindholm11:41M. Geekie12:12M. Eyssimont11:57

Line 4S. Kuraly10:24T. Jeannot10:26M. Kastelic9:46

Pair 1N. Zadorov19:09A. Peeke17:02

Pair 2C. McAvoy17:22J. Aspirot16:37

Pair 3H. Lindholm14:28J. Harris14:11

TBL

Line 1N. Kucherov14:29J. Guentzel15:10B. Point15:54

Line 2Y. Gourde13:18P. Holmberg13:20Z. Girgensons11:04

Line 3N. Paul8:33M. Chaffee9:39C. Perry12:28

Line 4G. Goncalves13:07A. Cirelli12:18O. Bjorkstrand8:54

Pair 1D. Raddysh19:16J. Moser17:21

Pair 2C. D'Astous18:24E. Lilleberg16:47

Pair 3R. McDonagh12:56E. Cernak13:22

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamTanner Jeannot BOS Faces TBL, his team until Apr 20240 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BOS 3.0, TBL 3.7	BOS 1, TBL 3
Total goals	6.7	4
Shots on goal	BOS 26.0, TBL 30.8	BOS 22, TBL 23
Win chance	TBL 61%	TBL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.4	1	1.20	0	38%	0
TBL N. Kucherov	3.2	3	1.62	1	37%	1
TBL J. Guentzel	2.8	1	1.03	1	37%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	2.7	1	0.83	1	15%	1
TBL B. Point	2.4	0	0.99	0	37%	0
BOS V. Arvidsson	2.2	3	0.59	1	22%	0
BOS M. Geekie	1.9	2	0.63	0	26%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.8	1	0.66	0	23%	0
BOS C. McAvoy	1.8	1	0.63	0	12%	0
BOS E. Lindholm	1.7	2	0.57	0	21%	0
BOS F. Minten	1.6	3	0.44	0	19%	0
BOS M. Eyssimont	1.5	3	0.21	0	10%	0
BOS P. Zacha	1.5	1	0.61	1	20%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	1.5	0	0.55	0	18%	0
TBL Y. Gourde	1.5	2	0.43	0	14%	0
BOS H. Lindholm	1.4	1	0.31	0	6%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.3	0	0.23	0	11%	0
TBL O. Bjorkstrand	1.3	3	0.35	1	14%	0
TBL C. Perry	1.3	1	0.37	0	18%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.3	1	0.23	0	6%	0
TBL P. Holmberg	1.2	2	0.30	0	13%	0
TBL N. Paul	1.2	4	0.30	0	15%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.2	0	0.31	1	6%	0
BOS S. Kuraly	1.2	0	0.20	0	9%	0
BOS C. Mittelstadt	1.1	1	0.50	1	16%	1
BOS A. Peeke	1.1	0	0.18	0	4%	0
TBL C. D'Astous	1.0	3	0.43	1	7%	1
BOS M. Kastelic	1.0	0	0.19	0	10%	0
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	1.0	0	0.35	0	14%	0
TBL M. Chaffee	0.9	0	0.20	0	12%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	0.9	0	0.37	1	5%	0
BOS T. Jeannot	0.9	0	0.21	0	9%	0
TBL E. Cernak	0.8	1	0.20	0	3%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.8	1	0.25	0	4%	0
BOS J. Harris	0.7	2	0.19	0	5%	0
BOS J. Aspirot	0.7	1	0.21	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.