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Game Recap
BOS1
UTA2
UTA beat BOS 2-1 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.65 expected goals to 2.11. UTA outshot BOS 32 to 22. C. Koepke had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. C. Ingram stopped 21 of 22.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| UTA | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
- 2nd 12:49BOSC. Koepke0.05 xG
- 3rd 14:51UTAV. Kolyachonok0.15 xG
- OT 2:46UTAM. Kesselring0.13 xG
Team Stats
BOSUTA
22Shots on goal32
2.11Expected goals2.65
42Shot attempts67
145v5 shots on goal23
0/3Power play0/4
29Hits12
19Blocked shots8
10Penalty minutes8
22Giveaways17
3Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BOS 2.11 xGUTA 2.65 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Marchand | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:06 | 3:49 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:31 | 0:00 |
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 19:51 | 4:35 |
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:17 | 3:15 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:39 | 2:39 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 16:20 | 3:18 |
| T. Frederic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:52 | 2:38 |
| M. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:43 | 0:00 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12:41 | 0:04 |
| J. Beecher | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:41 | 0:07 |
| M. Poitras | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:19 | 2:10 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:15 | 0:00 |
| C. McAvoy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 23:48 | 3:44 |
| H. Lindholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 21:57 | 2:16 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20:21 | 0:00 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:39 | 0:00 |
| B. Carlo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 18:16 | 0:00 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:15 | 1:25 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 32 | 30 | 2 | .938 | 62:37 | OT loss |
| J. Korpisalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:45 | 6:16 |
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 21:19 | 6:19 |
| L. Cooley | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:20 | 1:34 |
| M. Maccelli | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:21 | 1:35 |
| D. Guenther | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:44 | 6:17 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:37 | 4:50 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:19 | 1:10 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:41 | 0:09 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:54 | 0:00 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:29 | 0:03 |
| J. Doan | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:54 | 1:01 |
| K. Yamamoto | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:01 | 0:13 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:50 | 0:29 |
| V. Kolyachonok | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 15:54 | 0:03 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 28:09 | 6:13 |
| J. Välimäki | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:16 | 1:38 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:26 | 0:10 |
| R. Bortuzzo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10:46 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Ingram | 22 | 21 | 1 | .955 | 62:23 | Win |
| K. Vejmelka | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BOS 3.2, UTA 3.0 | BOS 1, UTA 2 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | BOS 28.1, UTA 29.3 | BOS 22, UTA 32 |
| Win chance | BOS 53% | UTA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 3.7 | 2 | 1.15 | 0 | 42% | 0 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.7 | 2 | 0.88 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| UTA D. Guenther | 2.4 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.0 | 3 | 0.78 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| BOS B. Marchand | 2.0 | 1 | 0.80 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 2.0 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.9 | 0 | 0.70 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 1.8 | 2 | 0.49 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.7 | 4 | 0.71 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.7 | 3 | 0.43 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.6 | 4 | 0.59 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| UTA J. Doan | 1.6 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| BOS C. McAvoy | 1.5 | 0 | 0.65 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS C. Coyle | 1.5 | 0 | 0.59 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| BOS T. Frederic | 1.5 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.4 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 1.3 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| UTA M. Maccelli | 1.3 | 3 | 0.50 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| UTA M. Kesselring | 1.3 | 2 | 0.36 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| BOS H. Lindholm | 1.3 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.2 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS J. Brazeau | 1.2 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.2 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| UTA K. Yamamoto | 1.1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| UTA J. Välimäki | 1.1 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.0 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS B. Carlo | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BOS C. Koepke | 0.9 | 5 | 0.29 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 0.9 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS J. Beecher | 0.9 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BOS M. Poitras | 0.9 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 0.8 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 0.7 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.7 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA V. Kolyachonok | 0.6 | 2 | 0.15 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| UTA R. Bortuzzo | 0.5 | 0 | 0.08 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.