Game Recap: BOS 5, VAN 1, December 14, 2024

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Game Recap

BOS5

FinalSat, Dec 14, 2024Every game that night

VAN1

BOS beat VAN 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 2.67 expected goals to 1.61. BOS outshot VAN 28 to 20. D. Pastrnak led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). M. Kastelic had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. J. Swayman stopped 19 of 20.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BOS	2	2	1	5
VAN	0	0	1	1

1st 5:12BOSB. MarchandPP0.19 xG
1st 8:08BOSM. Geekie0.24 xG
2nd 1:12BOSP. Zacha0.16 xG
2nd 11:49BOSM. McLaughlin0.05 xG
3rd 0:26BOSD. Pastrnak0.08 xG
3rd 10:13VANM. Sasson0.10 xG

Team Stats

BOSVAN

28Shots on goal20

2.67Expected goals1.61

52Shot attempts55

235v5 shots on goal19

1/4Power play0/2

18Hits30

21Blocked shots15

6Penalty minutes10

16Giveaways10

6Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BOS 2.67 xGVAN 1.61 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BOS28 on goal, 5 scored

VAN20 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Pastrnak	RW	1	3	4	1	0	1	+3	0	19:11	2:49
P. Zacha	C	1	2	3	2	0	0	+3	2	19:12	2:46
M. Geekie	C	1	1	2	2	2	0	+2	0	16:48	2:33
B. Marchand	LW	1	0	1	7	0	0	-1	2	17:04	2:43
E. Lindholm	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	14:25	2:20
M. McLaughlin	C	1	0	1	3	1	1	+1	0	10:51	0:30
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	17:25	2:20
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	16:33	2:17
J. Brazeau	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	13:01	2:23
M. Kastelic	C	0	0	0	6	2	3	0	0	12:31	0:30
J. Beecher	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	2	11:27	0:30
C. Koepke	LW	0	0	0	2	4	1	+1	0	10:17	0:00
C. McAvoy	D	0	1	1	2	2	3	+1	0	23:56	3:22
A. Peeke	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	+2	0	16:00	0:00
N. Zadorov	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	23:39	0:43
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	18:01	0:00
M. Lohrei	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+2	0	17:14	2:14
J. Oesterle	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	16:25	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Swayman	20	19	1	.950	60:00	Win
J. Korpisalo	0	0	0	–	0:00

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Miller	C	0	1	1	0	7	0	+1	2	19:10	2:19
M. Sasson	C	1	0	1	1	2	1	-1	0	9:01	0:14
C. Garland	RW	0	0	0	4	2	1	0	0	19:57	1:21
B. Boeser	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	17:48	1:32
P. Suter	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:51	0:45
E. Pettersson	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	15:10	1:29
K. Sherwood	LW	0	0	0	2	5	1	-1	0	13:47	0:37
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	13:43	1:09
D. Heinen	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	12:40	0:14
T. Blueger	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	-2	2	12:35	0:19
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:40	0:00
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	10:23	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	2	27:38	1:40
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	2	22:06	0:11
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	2	20:38	0:14
N. Juulsen	D	0	0	0	1	4	4	+1	0	17:32	0:14
M. Friedman	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-3	0	16:06	0:01
E. Brannstrom	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	14:18	0:41

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Demko	28	23	5	.821	59:57	Loss
A. Silovs	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamElias Lindholm BOS Faces VAN, his team until May 20241 A, 1 SOG
Old teamJake DeBrusk VAN Faces BOS, his team until May 20241 SOG
Old teamNikita Zadorov BOS Faces VAN, his team until May 20240 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BOS 2.8, VAN 2.9	BOS 5, VAN 1
Total goals	5.7	6
Shots on goal	BOS 26.6, VAN 26.6	BOS 28, VAN 20
Win chance	VAN 51%	BOS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.7	1	1.05	4	38%	1
VAN C. Garland	2.6	4	0.77	0	25%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.4	1	0.67	0	29%	0
VAN Q. Hughes	2.3	3	0.95	0	12%	0
BOS B. Marchand	2.2	7	0.76	1	26%	1
VAN B. Boeser	2.1	2	0.76	0	28%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	2.1	2	0.91	0	29%	0
VAN J. Miller	1.9	0	0.88	1	25%	0
VAN P. Suter	1.9	1	0.48	0	21%	0
BOS P. Zacha	1.8	2	0.62	3	20%	1
VAN K. Sherwood	1.8	2	0.46	0	18%	0
BOS M. Geekie	1.6	2	0.45	2	17%	1
BOS C. McAvoy	1.6	2	0.48	1	12%	0
BOS T. Frederic	1.5	0	0.42	0	18%	0
BOS J. Brazeau	1.5	0	0.42	0	17%	0
BOS E. Lindholm	1.4	1	0.50	1	19%	0
BOS C. Coyle	1.4	0	0.48	0	18%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.3	0	0.30	0	12%	0
VAN D. Heinen	1.2	0	0.39	0	16%	0
VAN T. Blueger	1.2	1	0.38	0	10%	0
VAN T. Myers	1.2	0	0.28	0	4%	0
BOS M. McLaughlin	1.1	3	0.21	1	12%	1
BOS M. Kastelic	1.1	6	0.26	0	11%	0
VAN N. Hoglander	1.1	1	0.29	0	15%	0
BOS J. Oesterle	1.1	0	0.21	0	4%	0
VAN C. Soucy	1.1	1	0.23	0	7%	0
BOS C. Koepke	1.0	2	0.26	0	11%	0
BOS B. Carlo	1.0	0	0.16	0	6%	0
VAN M. Friedman	1.0	0	0.11	0	3%	0
VAN E. Brannstrom	0.9	0	0.24	0	4%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	0.9	1	0.34	0	7%	0
VAN M. Sasson	0.9	1	0.36	1	9%	1
VAN D. Joshua	0.9	0	0.40	0	17%	0
BOS A. Peeke	0.8	1	0.15	1	4%	0
BOS J. Beecher	0.8	0	0.23	0	11%	0
VAN N. Juulsen	0.7	1	0.12	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.