Game Recap: BOS 5, VGK 6, October 16, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

BOS5

FinalThu, Oct 16, 2025Every game that night

VGK6

VGK beat BOS 6-5, and the chances backed it up: 5.06 expected goals to 2.49. VGK outshot BOS 37 to 24. M. Stone led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). J. Eichel had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 3.3. A. Schmid stopped 19 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BOS	2	1	2	5
VGK	2	3	1	6

1st 2:05BOST. Jeannot0.49 xG
1st 3:35VGKP. Dorofeyev0.22 xG
1st 16:44BOSN. Zadorov0.01 xG
1st 18:33VGKC. Reinhardt0.23 xG
2nd 4:14VGKJ. Eichel0.10 xG
2nd 6:35VGKT. HertlPP0.25 xG
2nd 8:15BOSD. PastrnakPP0.11 xG
2nd 18:24VGKW. KarlssonSH0.16 xG
3rd 2:19VGKW. KarlssonPP0.25 xG
3rd 4:05BOSM. Kastelic0.05 xG
3rd 5:12BOSM. Eyssimont0.03 xG

Team Stats

BOSVGK

24Shots on goal37

2.49Expected goals5.06

65Shot attempts74

205v5 shots on goal25

1/3Power play2/6

26Hits20

20Blocked shots22

12Penalty minutes6

14Giveaways13

5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BOS 2.49 xGVGK 5.06 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BOS24 on goal, 5 scored

VGK37 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Kuraly	C	0	2	2	1	2	0	+3	0	16:59	0:00
M. Eyssimont	C	1	1	2	2	0	0	+1	2	10:13	1:08
D. Pastrnak	RW	1	0	1	4	1	0	-2	0	22:26	3:51
E. Lindholm	C	0	1	1	3	2	2	-1	2	20:34	3:50
M. Geekie	C	0	1	1	2	2	0	-2	2	17:47	3:37
M. Kastelic	C	1	0	1	1	3	4	+2	0	13:22	0:00
T. Jeannot	LW	1	0	1	2	3	2	+1	0	10:41	0:00
P. Zacha	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	4	17:54	3:34
J. Viel	LW	0	0	0	0	4	1	+2	0	11:50	0:00
F. Minten	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	11:32	0:00
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	11:21	1:25
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	0	10:27	1:09
C. McAvoy	D	0	1	1	1	1	3	0	2	27:20	3:35
M. Lohrei	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	20:43	1:24
N. Zadorov	D	1	0	1	3	2	1	+1	0	20:31	0:00
H. Jokiharju	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	19:06	1:22
A. Peeke	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	15:13	0:00
J. Harris	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	13:31	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Swayman	37	31	6	.838	59:01	Loss
J. Korpisalo	0	0	0	–	0:00

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Stone	RW	0	3	3	6	0	1	+1	0	22:30	6:08
J. Eichel	C	1	1	2	9	0	3	0	0	24:11	6:44
M. Marner	RW	0	2	2	0	0	0	+1	0	21:07	6:39
P. Dorofeyev	RW	1	1	2	3	0	0	0	0	17:09	5:24
W. Karlsson	C	2	0	2	3	0	2	-1	0	15:17	2:56
I. Barbashev	LW	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	16:15	1:37
T. Hertl	C	1	0	1	6	1	0	0	2	16:08	4:54
C. Sissons	C	0	1	1	0	2	2	+1	0	11:07	0:00
C. Reinhardt	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	9:41	0:00
R. Smith	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	12:22	1:16
B. Saad	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	11:15	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	9:19	0:00
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	17:59	0:17
B. Hutton	D	0	1	1	2	0	3	0	0	12:18	0:00
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	23:25	1:17
S. Theodore	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	23:01	2:48
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	0	3	3	-1	2	16:29	0:00
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	2	5	2	-1	2	15:28	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Schmid	24	19	5	.792	60:00	Win
A. Hill	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BOS

Line 1E. Lindholm14:49D. Pastrnak17:36M. Geekie13:52

Line 2S. Kuraly12:50J. Viel11:50M. Kastelic11:36

Line 3C. Mittelstadt9:56V. Arvidsson8:55P. Zacha11:56

Line 4T. Jeannot8:33F. Minten9:01M. Eyssimont8:56

Pair 1C. McAvoy19:43M. Lohrei19:10

Pair 2N. Zadorov15:10H. Jokiharju15:23

Pair 3A. Peeke13:14J. Harris11:05

VGK

Line 1I. Barbashev14:20J. Eichel15:42M. Stone14:43

Line 2T. Hertl11:14M. Marner12:05P. Dorofeyev11:45

Line 3B. Saad11:07W. Karlsson9:45R. Smith10:00

Line 4C. Sissons10:11C. Reinhardt9:41K. Kolesar9:19

Pair 1B. McNabb18:46S. Theodore17:31

Pair 2J. Lauzon14:33K. Korczak15:28

Pair 3Z. Whitecloud15:07B. Hutton12:18

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BOS 2.6, VGK 3.3	BOS 5, VGK 6
Total goals	5.8	11
Shots on goal	BOS 23.7, VGK 29.9	BOS 24, VGK 37
Win chance	VGK 61%	VGK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.5	4	1.14	1	38%	1
VGK P. Dorofeyev	3.3	3	0.69	2	34%	1
VGK J. Eichel	3.3	9	1.14	2	32%	1
VGK T. Hertl	2.5	6	0.77	1	28%	1
VGK W. Karlsson	2.1	3	0.59	2	21%	2
VGK M. Marner	2.1	0	1.23	2	30%	0
VGK S. Theodore	2.0	2	0.69	0	8%	0
VGK M. Stone	2.0	6	0.90	3	26%	0
BOS V. Arvidsson	2.0	1	0.43	0	17%	0
BOS E. Lindholm	1.9	3	0.58	1	21%	0
BOS M. Geekie	1.9	2	0.70	1	27%	0
BOS M. Eyssimont	1.8	2	0.24	2	10%	1
BOS C. McAvoy	1.6	1	0.49	1	10%	0
VGK R. Smith	1.6	2	0.47	0	17%	0
VGK B. Saad	1.6	0	0.40	0	18%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.5	0	0.60	1	22%	0
VGK B. Hutton	1.4	2	0.24	1	5%	0
BOS P. Zacha	1.4	0	0.60	0	18%	0
BOS C. Mittelstadt	1.2	0	0.47	0	16%	0
BOS F. Minten	1.2	0	0.22	0	13%	0
BOS S. Kuraly	1.2	1	0.22	2	10%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.1	0	0.31	0	5%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.1	3	0.26	1	8%	1
VGK K. Korczak	1.1	2	0.26	0	3%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.0	1	0.21	1	9%	1
BOS M. Lohrei	1.0	0	0.29	1	5%	0
BOS A. Peeke	1.0	1	0.18	0	3%	0
VGK C. Sissons	1.0	0	0.25	1	9%	0
VGK J. Lauzon	1.0	0	0.14	0	4%	0
BOS H. Jokiharju	0.9	2	0.19	1	4%	0
BOS T. Jeannot	0.9	2	0.22	1	11%	1
VGK Z. Whitecloud	0.9	0	0.21	1	5%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	0.9	1	0.26	0	10%	0
VGK C. Reinhardt	0.8	1	0.15	1	8%	1
BOS J. Viel	0.7	0	0.11	0	7%	0
BOS J. Harris	0.6	1	0.17	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.