BUF beat ANA 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.99 expected goals to 3.35. BUF outshot ANA 32 to 24. A. Tuch led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). U. Luukkonen stopped 22 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| ANA | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 4:02ANAD. Helleson0.04 xG
- 2nd 14:07ANAI. Lundestrom0.07 xG
- 2nd 18:37BUFA. Tuch0.19 xG
- 2nd 19:27BUFJ. Zucker0.20 xG
- OT 4:00BUFJ.Kulich0.39 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BUF 3.99 xGANA 3.35 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Tuch | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:31 | 2:19 |
| J.Kulich | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:46 | 0:35 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:42 | 2:55 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:21 | 3:21 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:47 | 0:00 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:00 | 1:43 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:38 | 2:51 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 14:19 | 1:09 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:30 | 0:00 |
| S. Lafferty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:23 | 0:00 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:37 | 0:00 |
| N. Aube-Kubel | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:03 | 0:00 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 23:20 | 0:39 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 26:15 | 3:22 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:57 | 1:06 |
| H. Jokiharju | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:41 | 0:00 |
| J. Bryson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:44 | 0:00 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 15:26 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Luukkonen | 24 | 22 | 2 | .917 | 64:00 | Win |
| J. Reimer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
ANA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Zegras | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:54 | 1:37 |
| L. Carlsson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:43 | 2:18 |
| I. Lundestrom | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:07 | 0:09 |
| R. Johnston | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:34 | 0:02 |
| A. Killorn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 18:43 | 1:32 |
| F. Vatrano | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:14 | 2:21 |
| B. Leason | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:24 | 1:37 |
| T. Terry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:23 | 2:16 |
| R. Strome | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:40 | 2:13 |
| C. Gauthier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:31 | 1:36 |
| J. Harkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 11:52 | 0:00 |
| S. Colangelo | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:58 | 0:08 |
| O. Zellweger | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:08 | 2:23 |
| D. Helleson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:40 | 0:00 |
| P. Mintyukov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 22:25 | 1:38 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:02 | 0:10 |
| R. Gudas | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 5 | 20:01 | 0:00 |
| J. LaCombe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:41 | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BUF 3.3, ANA 2.8 | BUF 3, ANA 2 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | BUF 31.0, ANA 27.3 | BUF 32, ANA 24 |
| Win chance | BUF 58% | BUF won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA F. Vatrano | 3.1 | 2 | 0.65 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.9 | 4 | 0.83 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.8 | 2 | 1.00 | 2 | 31% | 1 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.7 | 4 | 0.74 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| BUF D. Cozens | 2.6 | 0 | 0.66 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| ANA T. Terry | 2.2 | 0 | 0.78 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.1 | 4 | 0.58 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| ANA T. Zegras | 2.1 | 2 | 0.67 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| ANA C. Gauthier | 2.0 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| ANA A. Killorn | 1.9 | 3 | 0.61 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| BUF J.Kulich | 1.8 | 4 | 0.24 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| ANA R. Strome | 1.8 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.7 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| ANA L. Carlsson | 1.7 | 0 | 0.53 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| ANA O. Zellweger | 1.7 | 1 | 0.39 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.5 | 3 | 0.51 | 2 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.4 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.4 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.4 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| ANA P. Mintyukov | 1.3 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| ANA B. Leason | 1.3 | 3 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BUF H. Jokiharju | 1.2 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| ANA R. Gudas | 1.2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| ANA B. Dumoulin | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 1.0 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| ANA I. Lundestrom | 1.0 | 2 | 0.28 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| BUF S. Lafferty | 0.9 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| ANA D. Helleson | 0.9 | 2 | 0.33 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| ANA J. Harkins | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 0.9 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BUF N. Aube-Kubel | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| ANA R. Johnston | 0.6 | 1 | 0.15 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bryson | 0.5 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 16 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.