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Game Recap
BUF5
Final/OTSun, Mar 22, 2026Every game that night
ANA6

ANA beat BUF 6-5 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.28 expected goals to 3.27. T. Terry led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). V. Husso stopped 24 of 29.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
BUF20305
ANA22116
  1. 1st 3:36BUFA. Tuch0.20 xG
  2. 1st 9:27ANAC. KreiderPP0.07 xG
  3. 1st 12:23ANAJ. LaCombePP0.04 xG
  4. 1st 17:14BUFJ. Doan0.11 xG
  5. 2nd 2:35ANAB. Sennecke0.16 xG
  6. 2nd 15:40ANAT. Terry0.10 xG
  7. 3rd 4:40BUFJ. Quinn0.06 xG
  8. 3rd 10:05BUFO. Power0.04 xG
  9. 3rd 11:37BUFZ. Benson0.36 xG
  10. 3rd 18:16ANAM. GranlundPP0.17 xG
  11. OT 1:29ANAT. Terry0.26 xG

Team Stats

BUFANA
29Shots on goal33
3.27Expected goals4.28
66Shot attempts62
265v5 shots on goal27
0/3Power play3/4
12Hits23
8Blocked shots13
4Penalty minutes6
11Giveaways13
2Takeaways9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 3.27 xGANA 4.28 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdOTBUF goal, 3:36ANA goal, 9:27ANA goal, 12:23BUF goal, 17:14ANA goal, 2:35ANA goal, 15:40BUF goal, 4:40BUF goal, 10:05BUF goal, 11:37ANA goal, 18:16ANA goal, 1:29

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF29 on goal, 5 scored
ANA33 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
Z. BensonLW112200+1012:070:00
A. TuchRW101200+1221:312:25
J. DoanRW101220+1015:403:35
R. McLeodC011101+1015:332:35
N. OstlundC011000+2014:422:28
J. QuinnRW1012100014:402:32
B. MalenstynLW011311+1010:330:00
T. ThompsonC0000110022:023:25
P. KrebsC0000200016:210:00
J. NorrisC0002100015:073:28
J. ZuckerLW0001100014:213:32
S. CarrickC0003100012:200:00
R. DahlinD022410+1025:183:38
O. PowerD112101+2021:010:00
B. ByramD011202+2219:552:22
M. SamuelssonD0001100022:440:00
L. StanleyD0003000014:010:00
Z. MetsaD0000020012:130:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Lyon33276.81861:17OT loss
C. Ellis000–0:00

ANA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
T. TerryRW202300+1018:093:08
C. KreiderLW1124100017:403:00
L. CarlssonC022300-1017:313:05
B. SenneckeRW112300+1215:001:22
M. GranlundC1012000018:432:15
M. McTavishC0111020012:281:26
T. WasheC011050+1211:140:00
A. KillornLW000311-1017:541:30
R. PoehlingC000011-2016:230:00
C. GauthierLW000210-3016:223:00
J. VielLW000010-3212:010:00
J. HarkinsC000230008:360:00
J. LaCombeD1121010023:561:28
O. ZellwegerD011200-2012:450:00
J. CarlsonD000211-1025:033:02
J. TroubaD000243+2024:180:00
P. MintyukovD000143-1021:200:00
I. MooreD000211-309:500:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
V. Husso29245.82860:43Win
L. Dostal000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BUF

Line 1T. Thompson17:49P. Krebs16:21A. Tuch15:33
Line 2J. Norris11:03J. Doan12:05N. Ostlund12:14
Line 3B. Malenstyn8:59Z. Benson11:55S. Carrick9:39
Line 4J. Zucker10:49R. McLeod9:36J. Quinn12:08
Pair 1M. Samuelsson19:39R. Dahlin20:13
Pair 2B. Byram16:50O. Power19:16
Pair 3L. Stanley10:20Z. Metsa12:01

ANA

Line 1T. Terry14:25L. Carlsson13:50C. Kreider13:12
Line 2M. Granlund13:21B. Sennecke13:38A. Killorn12:37
Line 3J. Viel11:49R. Poehling12:20C. Gauthier12:42
Line 4J. Harkins8:36T. Washe10:10M. McTavish11:02
Pair 1J. LaCombe21:35J. Trouba20:41
Pair 2J. Carlson19:02P. Mintyukov17:51
Pair 3I. Moore9:38O. Zellweger10:01

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamOlen Zellweger BUF Faces ANA, his team until May 20261 A, 2 SOG
  • HometownJason Zucker BUF Plays near home (born in Newport Beach)1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreBUF 3.2, ANA 3.3BUF 5, ANA 6
Total goals6.511
Shots on goalBUF 27.4, ANA 31.0BUF 29, ANA 33
Win chanceANA 52%ANA won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
ANA C. Gauthier3.620.84035%0
BUF T. Thompson3.100.97039%0
ANA B. Sennecke2.730.77226%1
BUF R. Dahlin2.440.86218%0
ANA L. Carlsson2.330.79228%0
BUF A. Tuch2.320.79130%1
ANA T. Terry2.230.76226%2
ANA J. Trouba2.120.4009%0
ANA A. Killorn2.130.52024%0
ANA C. Kreider2.040.70235%1
BUF J. Doan2.020.59122%1
ANA J. Carlson1.920.64012%0
BUF J. Zucker1.910.63024%0
ANA M. Granlund1.920.67120%1
BUF J. Quinn1.920.54118%1
ANA M. McTavish1.710.46119%0
ANA J. LaCombe1.710.59211%1
BUF O. Power1.610.4328%1
BUF J. Norris1.520.63027%0
ANA R. Poehling1.500.54019%0
BUF Z. Benson1.520.43213%1
ANA O. Zellweger1.520.2317%0
ANA J. Viel1.400.24011%0
BUF B. Byram1.420.51113%0
BUF L. Stanley1.330.3207%0
BUF M. Samuelsson1.310.4109%0
ANA P. Mintyukov1.210.3509%0
BUF R. McLeod1.210.60117%0
BUF S. Carrick1.130.26012%0
BUF N. Ostlund1.100.42116%0
BUF P. Krebs1.000.38011%0
ANA T. Washe1.000.18110%0
ANA I. Moore1.020.2206%0
BUF B. Malenstyn0.930.1918%0
BUF Z. Metsa0.800.2106%0
ANA J. Harkins0.720.1306%0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.