Game Recap: BUF 3, BOS 2 (OT), March 17, 2025

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Game Recap

BUF3

Final/OTMon, Mar 17, 2025Every game that night

BOS2

BUF beat BOS 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.36 expected goals to 2.22. BUF outshot BOS 30 to 20. O. Power led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). P. Krebs had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. U. Luukkonen stopped 18 of 20.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
BUF	1	1	0	1	3
BOS	2	0	0	0	2

1st 4:19BUFP. KrebsPP0.17 xG
1st 13:00BOSP. Zacha0.23 xG
1st 15:13BOSM. Geekie0.16 xG
2nd 12:48BUFO. Power0.06 xG
OT 4:49BUFA. TuchPP0.11 xG

Team Stats

BUFBOS

30Shots on goal20

2.36Expected goals2.22

65Shot attempts43

195v5 shots on goal15

2/4Power play0/2

27Hits31

10Blocked shots23

9Penalty minutes13

7Giveaways17

8Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 2.36 xGBOS 2.22 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF30 on goal, 3 scored

BOS20 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Quinn	RW	0	2	2	1	0	0	-1	0	14:48	2:10
R. McLeod	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	23:57	5:18
A. Tuch	RW	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	0	22:20	4:46
P. Krebs	C	1	0	1	4	1	1	-1	0	17:26	1:56
T. Thompson	C	0	0	0	6	4	0	0	0	21:15	5:33
J. Zucker	LW	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	20:12	5:45
Z. Benson	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	17:03	1:38
J. Greenway	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	5	12:14	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	11:48	0:00
B. Murray	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	11:20	0:00
T. Kozak	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	10:07	0:00
S. Lafferty	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	8:36	0:00
O. Power	D	1	2	3	2	0	2	+1	0	22:41	2:24
B. Byram	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	24:01	1:44
R. Dahlin	D	0	0	0	4	4	0	0	0	24:33	5:18
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	19:06	0:00
J. Bryson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	16:38	0:00
C. Clifton	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	2	14:20	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
U. Luukkonen	20	18	2	.900	64:49	Win
J. Reimer	0	0	0	–	0:00

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Geekie	C	1	1	2	2	1	0	+2	0	20:33	2:04
D. Pastrnak	RW	0	1	1	4	0	2	+2	2	20:51	2:04
P. Zacha	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	+2	0	19:47	1:06
E. Lindholm	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	18:54	2:04
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	18:23	2:04
C. Koepke	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	15:14	0:00
V. Lettieri	C	0	0	0	1	5	1	0	0	13:58	1:06
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	2	12:43	1:06
J. Lauko	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	0	11:39	0:00
J. Beecher	C	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	11:08	0:00
M. Kastelic	C	0	0	0	0	4	2	0	2	10:20	0:00
P. Brown	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:05	0:00
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	19:55	0:00
H. Jokiharju	D	0	0	0	2	4	1	+1	0	22:41	1:06
A. Peeke	D	0	0	0	2	1	5	+1	0	22:36	0:00
N. Zadorov	D	0	0	0	2	2	3	0	5	22:27	0:00
M. Lohrei	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	21:11	2:04
I. Mitchell	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	2	16:18	1:06

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Korpisalo	30	27	3	.900	64:49	OT loss
J. Swayman	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamCasey Mittelstadt BOS Faces BUF, his team until Mar 20240 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BUF 3.0, BOS 3.2	BUF 3, BOS 2
Total goals	6.2	5
Shots on goal	BUF 28.2, BOS 27.8	BUF 30, BOS 20
Win chance	BOS 54%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	4.0	4	1.40	1	46%	0
BUF T. Thompson	3.0	6	0.90	0	36%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.4	5	0.76	1	28%	1
BUF R. Dahlin	2.4	4	0.73	0	15%	0
BUF J. Zucker	2.0	2	0.62	0	23%	0
BOS M. Geekie	2.0	2	0.68	2	27%	1
BOS E. Lindholm	1.9	2	0.67	0	24%	0
BOS P. Zacha	1.7	1	0.76	1	23%	1
BUF Z. Benson	1.4	1	0.40	0	15%	0
BUF J. Quinn	1.4	1	0.40	2	15%	0
BOS V. Lettieri	1.4	1	0.32	0	16%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.4	1	0.54	1	20%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	1.4	2	0.56	0	10%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.4	2	0.36	0	11%	0
BUF O. Power	1.4	2	0.37	3	6%	1
BOS C. Mittelstadt	1.3	0	0.64	0	19%	0
BOS C. Koepke	1.2	0	0.28	0	15%	0
BUF J. Greenway	1.2	0	0.29	0	12%	0
BOS A. Peeke	1.2	2	0.29	0	5%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.1	0	0.44	1	10%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.0	0	0.23	0	10%	0
BOS H. Jokiharju	1.0	2	0.25	0	5%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	0.9	0	0.19	0	3%	0
BUF P. Krebs	0.9	4	0.27	1	9%	1
BOS J. Lauko	0.9	1	0.29	0	11%	0
BUF C. Clifton	0.9	1	0.20	0	4%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.8	0	0.17	0	7%	0
BOS P. Wotherspoon	0.8	0	0.19	1	3%	0
BUF S. Lafferty	0.8	2	0.17	0	8%	0
BOS P. Brown	0.8	0	0.19	0	7%	0
BOS I. Mitchell	0.7	0	0.23	0	3%	0
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	0.7	1	0.27	0	12%	0
BUF T. Kozak	0.7	1	0.17	0	10%	0
BUF B. Murray	0.6	0	0.23	0	9%	0
BOS J. Beecher	0.6	0	0.20	0	10%	0
BUF J. Bryson	0.5	0	0.17	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 26 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.