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Game Recap
BUF3
BOS1
BUF beat BOS 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.40 expected goals to 2.63. B. Byram led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). P. Zacha had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. A. Lyon stopped 24 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| BOS | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
- 2nd 3:26BOST. Jeannot0.01 xG
- 2nd 10:58BUFB. Byram0.06 xG
- 3rd 4:03BUFA. Tuch0.07 xG
- 3rd 18:36BUFN. OstlundEN0.89 xG
Team Stats
BUFBOS
30Shots on goal25
3.40Expected goals2.63
59Shot attempts44
185v5 shots on goal11
0/5Power play0/4
38Hits35
9Blocked shots15
10Penalty minutes12
9Giveaways18
6Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BUF 3.40 xGBOS 2.63 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Ostlund | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 14:18 | 1:39 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:26 | 6:24 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:52 | 5:02 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 12:47 | 0:00 |
| T. Thompson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 19:16 | 6:04 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:49 | 2:52 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:21 | 5:56 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:31 | 1:51 |
| J. Doan | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:49 | 1:28 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:27 | 0:16 |
| J. Greenway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 9:13 | 0:16 |
| T. Kozak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:35 | 0:14 |
| B. Byram | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 21:59 | 1:19 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 19:59 | 0:25 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 23:29 | 6:41 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:33 | 0:00 |
| C. Timmins | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:16 | 0:09 |
| L. Stanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:25 | 0:09 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Lyon | 25 | 24 | 1 | .960 | 59:55 | Win |
| U. Luukkonen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Jeannot | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 9:10 | 0:12 |
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 21:21 | 6:00 |
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 19:54 | 5:17 |
| M. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 19:32 | 5:32 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:34 | 3:34 |
| F. Minten | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:23 | 2:24 |
| V. Arvidsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:33 | 4:11 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:44 | 2:16 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:15 | 0:00 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 11:15 | 0:15 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 10:41 | 0:12 |
| J. Hagens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:53 | 1:12 |
| C. McAvoy | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 27:07 | 5:40 |
| H. Lindholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 21:37 | 2:20 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:21 | 0:00 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:32 | 0:12 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:18 | 0:43 |
| J. Aspirot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:27 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 29 | 27 | 2 | .931 | 58:14 | Loss |
| J. Korpisalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
BUF
Line 1Z. Benson12:55J. Doan12:37N. Ostlund11:47
Line 2T. Thompson12:05P. Krebs12:25A. Tuch10:23
Line 4B. Malenstyn6:13T. Kozak6:55J. Greenway6:02
Pair 2M. Samuelsson13:31R. Dahlin15:22
Pair 3L. Stanley10:31C. Timmins11:01
BOS
Line 1D. Pastrnak13:33M. Geekie12:27E. Lindholm11:02
Line 2P. Zacha12:20C. Mittelstadt12:14V. Arvidsson10:07
Line 3F. Minten10:54M. Khusnutdinov10:30J. Hagens8:36
Line 4S. Kuraly7:50M. Kastelic8:27T. Jeannot7:45
Pair 1A. Peeke14:58N. Zadorov13:10
Pair 2H. Lindholm15:24M. Lohrei14:35
Pair 3C. McAvoy14:49J. Aspirot11:19
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BUF 3.4, BOS 3.2 | BUF 3, BOS 1 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | BUF 29.5, BOS 27.1 | BUF 30, BOS 25 |
| Win chance | BUF 52% | BUF won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.2 | 3 | 0.89 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 3.2 | 5 | 1.23 | 0 | 39% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.7 | 2 | 0.83 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 2.6 | 5 | 0.65 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.4 | 2 | 0.85 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BOS V. Arvidsson | 2.4 | 4 | 0.67 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.2 | 4 | 0.66 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 2.1 | 2 | 0.77 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| BUF J. Doan | 1.9 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.8 | 0 | 0.65 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.8 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BOS C. McAvoy | 1.7 | 3 | 0.67 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS F. Minten | 1.6 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| BOS H. Lindholm | 1.5 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.5 | 5 | 0.62 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.4 | 0 | 0.38 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| BOS S. Kuraly | 1.3 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.3 | 2 | 0.45 | 2 | 11% | 1 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.3 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.2 | 1 | 0.59 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 1.2 | 2 | 0.42 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.2 | 3 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS C. Mittelstadt | 1.2 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BUF N. Ostlund | 1.1 | 2 | 0.40 | 2 | 15% | 1 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 1.1 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF L. Stanley | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF C. Timmins | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BOS M. Khusnutdinov | 1.0 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 0.9 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BUF J. Greenway | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS T. Jeannot | 0.9 | 2 | 0.23 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BOS J. Aspirot | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF T. Kozak | 0.7 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.