Game Recap: BUF 6, BOS 1, April 26, 2026

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Game Recap

BUF6

FinalSun, Apr 26, 2026PlayoffsEvery game that night

BOS1

BUF beat BOS 6-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.17 expected goals to 1.91. BUF outshot BOS 35 to 24. A. Tuch led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Tuch had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. A. Lyon stopped 23 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BUF	4	0	2	6
BOS	0	0	1	1

1st 4:17BUFP. Krebs0.16 xG
1st 7:10BUFJ. Doan0.17 xG
1st 9:15BUFZ. Benson0.10 xG
1st 14:24BUFB. Byram0.05 xG
3rd 5:08BUFB. Malenstyn0.09 xG
3rd 6:32BUFA. Tuch0.19 xG
3rd 19:20BOSS. KuralySH0.38 xG

Team Stats

BUFBOS

35Shots on goal24

4.17Expected goals1.91

66Shot attempts60

295v5 shots on goal17

0/3Power play0/1

23Hits42

17Blocked shots12

18Penalty minutes23

13Giveaways17

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 4.17 xGBOS 1.91 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF34 on goal, 6 scored

BOS24 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Tuch	RW	1	1	2	6	0	3	+2	0	18:35	3:51
P. Krebs	C	1	1	2	3	2	1	+2	4	14:32	0:00
J. Doan	RW	1	1	2	1	2	0	+1	0	12:51	1:55
T. Thompson	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	+2	0	19:18	4:38
J. Quinn	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	17:10	2:47
R. McLeod	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	16:56	2:11
J. Greenway	LW	0	1	1	0	3	1	+1	2	13:26	2:15
Z. Benson	LW	1	0	1	3	2	0	+2	12	13:25	1:05
B. Malenstyn	LW	1	0	1	1	4	4	+1	0	13:24	0:40
T. Kozak	C	0	1	1	2	1	2	+1	0	10:59	0:00
N. Ostlund	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	17:19	5:05
J. Zucker	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	13:26	2:55
B. Byram	D	1	1	2	3	1	0	+3	0	22:59	2:45
O. Power	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	+2	0	20:14	1:06
R. Dahlin	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	21:12	3:52
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	17:55	0:00
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	3	0	3	+1	0	16:21	0:40
C. Timmins	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	+1	0	15:58	0:40

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Lyon	24	23	1	.958	60:00	Win
U. Luukkonen	0	0	0	–	0:00

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Kuraly	C	1	0	1	2	4	2	-1	0	15:59	0:00
M. Kastelic	C	0	1	1	0	5	0	0	0	14:34	0:00
D. Pastrnak	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	-2	4	19:15	2:00
T. Jeannot	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	16:21	0:00
M. Geekie	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	0	16:15	1:22
E. Lindholm	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	-3	0	15:41	1:21
F. Minten	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	14:53	0:40
P. Zacha	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	14:42	1:20
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	14:37	0:39
L. Reichel	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	13:51	0:00
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	0	0	0	7	0	-1	0	12:46	0:38
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	3:13	0:00
A. Peeke	D	0	1	1	3	2	2	+1	0	22:32	0:00
C. McAvoy	D	0	0	0	3	3	0	-4	0	23:23	1:00
H. Lindholm	D	0	0	0	4	0	1	-1	2	21:38	1:00
N. Zadorov	D	0	0	0	3	4	1	0	17	19:20	0:00
J. Aspirot	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-4	0	18:06	0:00
J. Harris	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	-2	0	13:37	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Swayman	29	23	6	.793	46:41	Loss
J. Korpisalo	6	6	0	1.000	13:19

Lines at 5-on-5

BUF

Line 1T. Thompson14:03P. Krebs14:07A. Tuch12:31

Line 2R. McLeod12:35J. Quinn14:23J. Zucker10:31

Line 3J. Greenway11:11B. Malenstyn11:57T. Kozak10:59

Line 4N. Ostlund11:41Z. Benson11:30J. Doan10:31

Pair 1B. Byram19:12O. Power17:21

Pair 2M. Samuelsson15:43R. Dahlin16:22

Pair 3L. Stanley14:55C. Timmins14:03

BOS

Line 1M. Geekie14:53D. Pastrnak16:50P. Zacha12:13

Line 2S. Kuraly12:04T. Jeannot13:55M. Kastelic11:11

Line 3M. Khusnutdinov9:49F. Minten12:07L. Reichel12:51

Line 4E. Lindholm12:33C. Mittelstadt13:58

Pair 1N. Zadorov17:27A. Peeke17:58

Pair 2C. McAvoy19:33J. Aspirot15:05

Pair 3H. Lindholm15:37J. Harris12:18

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BUF 3.4, BOS 3.2	BUF 6, BOS 1
Total goals	6.6	7
Shots on goal	BUF 29.6, BOS 27.0	BUF 35, BOS 24
Win chance	BUF 52%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.3	1	1.23	0	39%	0
BUF T. Thompson	3.3	3	0.90	1	37%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.7	6	0.85	2	33%	1
BUF J. Quinn	2.6	1	0.65	1	22%	0
BOS V. Arvidsson	2.5	0	0.67	0	25%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.4	3	0.87	0	18%	0
BUF J. Zucker	2.2	1	0.67	0	25%	0
BOS M. Geekie	2.1	1	0.78	0	32%	0
BUF J. Doan	1.8	1	0.47	2	20%	1
BUF Z. Benson	1.8	3	0.51	1	16%	1
BOS E. Lindholm	1.8	2	0.63	0	24%	0
BOS C. McAvoy	1.8	3	0.69	0	12%	0
BOS P. Zacha	1.6	1	0.65	0	22%	0
BOS F. Minten	1.5	2	0.43	0	19%	0
BOS H. Lindholm	1.5	4	0.39	0	8%	0
BUF O. Power	1.4	1	0.38	1	7%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.3	3	0.47	2	11%	1
BOS S. Kuraly	1.3	2	0.26	1	11%	1
BUF R. McLeod	1.2	1	0.59	1	18%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.2	3	0.26	0	6%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.2	3	0.41	2	12%	1
BOS M. Kastelic	1.2	0	0.24	1	12%	0
BOS C. Mittelstadt	1.1	2	0.52	0	17%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.1	0	0.33	0	7%	0
BUF N. Ostlund	1.1	0	0.42	0	15%	0
BOS A. Peeke	1.0	3	0.18	1	4%	0
BUF L. Stanley	1.0	3	0.22	0	5%	0
BUF C. Timmins	1.0	3	0.21	0	3%	0
BOS L. Reichel	1.0	0	0.29	0	11%	0
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	0.9	0	0.35	0	15%	0
BOS T. Jeannot	0.9	0	0.23	0	10%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.9	1	0.17	1	7%	1
BUF J. Greenway	0.9	0	0.19	1	8%	0
BOS J. Harris	0.8	0	0.22	0	5%	0
BOS J. Aspirot	0.8	0	0.22	0	4%	0
BUF T. Kozak	0.7	2	0.15	1	8%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.