Game Recap: BUF 4, BOS 1, May 1, 2026

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Game Recap

BUF4

FinalFri, May 1, 2026PlayoffsEvery game that night

BOS1

BUF beat BOS 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.23 expected goals to 1.83. Z. Benson led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Doan had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. A. Lyon stopped 25 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BUF	2	0	2	4
BOS	0	1	0	1

1st 3:25BUFA. Tuch0.31 xG
1st 12:26BUFM. Samuelsson0.02 xG
2nd 1:54BOSD. Pastrnak0.07 xG
3rd 5:58BUFZ. Benson0.09 xG
3rd 16:40BUFJ. NorrisEN0.29 xG

Team Stats

BUFBOS

26Shots on goal26

3.23Expected goals1.83

48Shot attempts56

195v5 shots on goal23

0/4Power play0/0

27Hits43

19Blocked shots9

2Penalty minutes21

19Giveaways15

3Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 3.23 xGBOS 1.83 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF26 on goal, 4 scored

BOS23 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Thompson	C	0	2	2	5	2	1	+2	0	21:54	4:35
Z. Benson	LW	1	1	2	1	1	1	+2	2	16:47	2:12
A. Tuch	RW	1	0	1	2	2	2	+2	0	20:36	3:17
P. Krebs	C	0	1	1	0	1	3	+2	0	16:58	0:37
J. Norris	C	1	0	1	2	5	0	+2	0	16:45	2:41
J. Doan	RW	0	1	1	5	3	0	+2	0	15:51	2:36
J. Zucker	LW	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	15:25	4:50
R. McLeod	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	14:38	4:06
J. Quinn	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	13:52	2:29
T. Kozak	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	11:01	0:09
J. Greenway	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:58	0:10
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	10:36	0:04
R. Dahlin	D	0	2	2	5	1	2	+2	0	23:48	5:34
M. Samuelsson	D	1	0	1	2	2	2	+2	0	22:36	0:07
B. Byram	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+1	0	24:05	4:08
O. Power	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	21:24	0:00
C. Timmins	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	18:39	0:00
M. Kesselring	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4:25	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Lyon	26	25	1	.962	59:42	Win
U. Luukkonen	0	0	0	–	0:00

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Pastrnak	RW	1	0	1	5	1	0	-3	0	18:35	0:00
P. Zacha	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	-3	0	18:21	0:00
M. Geekie	C	0	0	0	4	6	1	-1	2	18:57	0:00
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	17:24	0:00
E. Lindholm	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	-1	0	17:22	0:00
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	0	0	1	5	0	-2	0	15:15	0:00
F. Minten	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	14:59	0:00
A. Steeves	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	12:46	0:00
M. Eyssimont	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	11:04	0:00
T. Jeannot	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	10:48	0:00
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:40	0:00
M. Kastelic	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:40	0:00
H. Lindholm	D	0	1	1	0	2	2	0	2	23:13	0:00
C. McAvoy	D	0	0	0	2	6	0	-3	15	25:09	0:00
N. Zadorov	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	21:52	0:00
A. Peeke	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	0	20:04	0:00
J. Aspirot	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	15:00	0:00
H. Jokiharju	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	14:12	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Swayman	25	22	3	.880	58:08	Loss
J. Korpisalo	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BUF

Line 1A. Tuch16:11P. Krebs15:13T. Thompson15:53

Line 2Z. Benson14:02J. Doan12:33J. Norris13:25

Line 3J. Zucker10:28J. Quinn11:19R. McLeod10:19

Line 4J. Greenway10:32B. Malenstyn10:16T. Kozak10:36

Pair 1M. Samuelsson21:36R. Dahlin17:17

Pair 2C. Timmins17:47B. Byram18:47

Pair 3O. Power20:56M. Kesselring4:25

BOS

Line 1D. Pastrnak16:57P. Zacha16:37M. Khusnutdinov12:19

Line 2E. Lindholm14:59C. Mittelstadt15:55M. Geekie17:35

Line 3A. Steeves11:58F. Minten12:23M. Eyssimont10:23

Line 4T. Jeannot8:15M. Kastelic6:10S. Kuraly6:29

Pair 1N. Zadorov18:11A. Peeke15:46

Pair 2H. Lindholm18:58H. Jokiharju13:33

Pair 3C. McAvoy21:13J. Aspirot13:54

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BUF 3.4, BOS 3.1	BUF 4, BOS 1
Total goals	6.5	5
Shots on goal	BUF 29.6, BOS 26.9	BUF 26, BOS 26
Win chance	BUF 53%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.4	5	1.26	1	41%	1
BUF T. Thompson	3.4	5	0.95	2	38%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.8	2	0.89	1	33%	1
BUF J. Quinn	2.6	0	0.63	0	21%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.5	5	0.88	2	19%	0
BUF J. Zucker	2.2	1	0.67	0	25%	0
BOS M. Geekie	2.1	4	0.76	0	32%	0
BOS M. Eyssimont	1.9	2	0.25	0	12%	0
BOS E. Lindholm	1.8	2	0.64	0	24%	0
BOS C. McAvoy	1.8	2	0.67	0	12%	0
BUF J. Doan	1.8	5	0.47	1	19%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.8	1	0.48	2	15%	1
BOS P. Zacha	1.7	1	0.69	1	23%	0
BUF J. Norris	1.7	2	0.62	1	26%	1
BOS H. Lindholm	1.5	0	0.38	1	7%	0
BOS F. Minten	1.5	1	0.41	0	19%	0
BUF O. Power	1.4	0	0.40	0	7%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.4	1	0.49	0	12%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.4	0	0.48	1	14%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.3	0	0.26	0	6%	0
BOS S. Kuraly	1.3	0	0.28	0	11%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.3	1	0.61	0	18%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.2	0	0.25	0	12%	0
BOS C. Mittelstadt	1.2	1	0.52	0	17%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.2	2	0.34	1	8%	1
BUF M. Kesselring	1.2	0	0.17	0	4%	0
BOS A. Steeves	1.2	2	0.29	0	14%	0
BOS A. Peeke	1.1	1	0.20	0	4%	0
BUF C. Timmins	1.0	0	0.22	0	3%	0
BOS H. Jokiharju	1.0	2	0.23	0	4%	0
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	1.0	1	0.37	0	16%	0
BOS T. Jeannot	1.0	1	0.24	0	11%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.9	1	0.18	0	8%	0
BUF J. Greenway	0.9	0	0.21	0	8%	0
BOS J. Aspirot	0.9	1	0.22	0	4%	0
BUF T. Kozak	0.8	0	0.18	0	9%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.