Game Recap: BUF 3, CAR 6, November 8, 2025

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Game Recap

BUF3

FinalSat, Nov 8, 2025Every game that night

CAR6

CAR beat BUF 6-3, with the chances close: 3.21 expected goals to 3.03. CAR outshot BUF 35 to 22. S. Aho led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). S. Aho had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. P. Kochetkov stopped 19 of 22.

Team Stats

BUFCAR

22Shots on goal35

3.03Expected goals3.21

49Shot attempts70

195v5 shots on goal29

0/1Power play1/2

21Hits25

16Blocked shots13

6Penalty minutes4

24Giveaways24

7Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 3.03 xGCAR 3.21 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF21 on goal, 3 scored

CAR34 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Thompson	C	1	1	2	4	2	1	0	0	18:59	1:02
A. Tuch	RW	1	1	2	1	3	1	0	0	18:37	1:04
R. McLeod	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	19:23	0:54
N. Ostlund	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	8:51	0:54
J. Quinn	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	-2	0	17:17	1:06
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	16:23	0:54
J. Doan	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	15:15	1:06
J. Greenway	LW	0	0	0	4	1	1	-2	2	15:04	0:02
T. Kozak	C	0	0	0	2	3	2	0	0	14:11	0:00
I. Rosen	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	13:54	0:54
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:25	0:00
J. Dunne	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	8:53	0:00
O. Power	D	1	0	1	2	1	1	-1	0	22:08	0:40
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	+1	0	23:35	0:04
B. Byram	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-3	0	21:30	1:20
C. Timmins	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	20:22	0:00
M. Kesselring	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	0	17:29	0:00
J. Bryson	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	2	13:22	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Lyon	33	29	4	.879	58:47	Loss
U. Luukkonen	0	0	0	–	0:00

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Aho	C	1	1	2	6	0	0	+1	0	20:01	1:20
A. Svechnikov	RW	1	1	2	2	3	1	+1	0	18:11	1:22
J. Kotkaniemi	C	1	1	2	2	3	0	+2	0	11:49	0:00
S. Jarvis	C	1	0	1	1	2	0	+1	0	17:49	1:19
J. Staal	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	-1	0	16:27	0:09
T. Hall	LW	0	1	1	3	0	1	+2	0	15:57	2:08
E. Robinson	LW	1	0	1	3	2	1	+3	0	12:22	0:00
N. Ehlers	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	11:36	1:17
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	15:30	0:09
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-2	0	13:20	0:09
J. Blake	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:31	2:07
L. Stankoven	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	12:18	2:06
C. Legault	D	1	1	2	2	2	2	+2	2	18:21	0:00
K. Miller	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	20:31	1:30
J. Nystrom	D	0	1	1	4	0	1	0	0	16:23	0:00
A. Nikishin	D	0	0	0	1	4	1	+2	0	21:39	2:05
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	21:09	2:09
M. Reilly	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+1	2	21:05	0:05

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Kochetkov	22	19	3	.864	59:01	Win
F. Andersen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BUF

Line 1T. Thompson15:41R. McLeod14:51A. Tuch14:09

Line 2J. Greenway12:39J. Doan13:09T. Kozak13:07

Line 3J. Quinn14:34I. Rosen12:13N. Ostlund7:57

Line 4P. Krebs14:38B. Malenstyn8:59J. Dunne8:25

Pair 1B. Byram18:08M. Kesselring15:16

Pair 2C. Timmins17:44O. Power18:34

Pair 3M. Samuelsson18:44J. Bryson12:17

CAR

Line 1S. Aho15:30S. Jarvis14:34A. Svechnikov14:07

Line 2J. Staal12:55J. Martinook13:21W. Carrier12:39

Line 3T. Hall13:17J. Kotkaniemi11:39E. Robinson11:40

Line 4L. Stankoven10:12J. Blake10:24N. Ehlers9:52

Pair 1M. Reilly19:09C. Legault17:16

Pair 2A. Nikishin17:23J. Nystrom15:15

Pair 3K. Miller16:04S. Walker15:48

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BUF 2.9, CAR 3.6	BUF 3, CAR 6
Total goals	6.5	9
Shots on goal	BUF 25.2, CAR 32.5	BUF 22, CAR 35
Win chance	CAR 62%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	3.2	4	0.84	2	36%	1
CAR S. Jarvis	2.8	1	0.93	1	33%	1
CAR N. Ehlers	2.7	1	0.85	1	28%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.5	6	1.05	2	35%	1
CAR S. Walker	2.5	1	0.41	0	13%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.3	2	0.75	2	27%	1
BUF J. Doan	2.2	0	0.52	0	19%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.1	1	0.70	2	27%	1
CAR L. Stankoven	2.1	1	0.54	0	21%	0
CAR J. Blake	2.0	1	0.55	0	21%	0
CAR M. Reilly	2.0	1	0.33	0	7%	0
CAR A. Nikishin	1.8	1	0.53	0	10%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.7	3	0.56	1	21%	0
BUF J. Quinn	1.7	1	0.53	0	19%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.6	2	0.50	1	12%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.4	1	0.49	0	17%	0
BUF I. Rosen	1.4	0	0.27	0	11%	0
CAR J. Nystrom	1.3	4	0.15	1	5%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.3	2	0.53	1	18%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.3	3	0.41	1	16%	0
BUF M. Kesselring	1.2	0	0.24	0	5%	0
BUF O. Power	1.2	2	0.34	1	5%	1
CAR C. Legault	1.2	2	0.13	2	4%	1
CAR E. Robinson	1.2	3	0.30	1	12%	1
CAR W. Carrier	1.1	0	0.24	0	12%	0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.1	2	0.33	2	12%	1
BUF J. Greenway	1.1	4	0.24	0	10%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.0	1	0.29	0	10%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	1.0	0	0.14	0	6%	0
BUF N. Ostlund	0.9	0	0.17	1	11%	0
BUF B. Byram	0.8	2	0.34	0	8%	0
BUF C. Timmins	0.8	1	0.24	0	4%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	0.8	2	0.19	0	4%	0
BUF J. Dunne	0.7	0	0.12	0	8%	0
BUF T. Kozak	0.6	2	0.20	0	11%	0
BUF J. Bryson	0.3	0	0.09	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.