Game Recap: BUF 1, CAR 2, January 19, 2026

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Game Recap

BUF1

FinalMon, Jan 19, 2026Every game that night

CAR2

CAR beat BUF 2-1, with the chances close: 3.21 expected goals to 2.64. CAR outshot BUF 29 to 18. A. Svechnikov led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). S. Jarvis had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.8. B. Bussi stopped 17 of 18.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BUF	1	0	0	1
CAR	1	0	1	2

1st 1:33BUFR. Dahlin0.07 xG
1st 7:04CARA. Svechnikov0.09 xG
3rd 2:10CARS. JarvisPP0.13 xG

Team Stats

BUFCAR

18Shots on goal29

2.64Expected goals3.21

35Shot attempts51

145v5 shots on goal23

0/1Power play1/2

25Hits23

12Blocked shots6

8Penalty minutes6

19Giveaways17

6Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 2.64 xGCAR 3.21 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF17 on goal, 1 scored

CAR29 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Zucker	LW	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	14:59	1:16
J. Quinn	RW	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	14:31	0:44
T. Thompson	C	0	0	0	6	1	2	0	22:47	1:16
A. Tuch	RW	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	19:55	0:44
J. Doan	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	17:30	1:16
Z. Benson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	17:07	0:44
N. Ostlund	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:23	1:16
R. McLeod	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	14:44	0:44
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	11:04	0:00
K. Helenius	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:47	0:00
T. Kozak	C	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	10:28	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	10:23	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	1	0	1	3	3	1	4	25:03	1:16
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	27:33	0:00
B. Byram	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	25:01	0:44
O. Power	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	2	22:07	0:00
Z. Metsa	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	8:41	0:00
J. Bryson	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	8:00	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
U. Luukkonen	29	27	2	.931	57:50	Loss
A. Lyon	0	0	0	–	0:00

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Aho	C	0	2	2	0	1	0	0	19:38	2:05
A. Svechnikov	RW	1	1	2	1	4	0	6	17:17	2:00
S. Jarvis	C	1	0	1	6	5	0	0	21:43	2:00
J. Staal	C	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	19:44	0:23
N. Ehlers	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	18:35	1:44
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	16:49	0:00
J. Blake	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	16:05	0:00
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	12:53	0:07
L. Stankoven	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	12:37	0:02
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	9:45	0:00
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	9:36	0:00
E. Robinson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2:02	0:00
S. Walker	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	19:16	0:07
J. Slavin	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	22:53	0:00
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	22:50	0:00
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	21:57	0:03
A. Nikishin	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	17:48	2:04
J. Nystrom	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:08	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
B. Bussi	18	17	1	.944	59:24	Win
F. Andersen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BUF

Line 1A. Tuch15:57T. Thompson17:26Z. Benson14:40

Line 2R. McLeod11:59J. Quinn13:37J. Zucker11:24

Line 3N. Ostlund11:52K. Helenius10:47J. Doan12:34

Line 4B. Malenstyn10:00P. Krebs11:04T. Kozak10:19

Pair 1M. Samuelsson23:54R. Dahlin20:53

Pair 2B. Byram21:16O. Power20:05

Pair 3J. Bryson7:32Z. Metsa8:41

CAR

Line 1J. Staal14:43N. Ehlers15:13J. Martinook13:16

Line 2S. Jarvis17:20A. Svechnikov14:41S. Aho14:30

Line 3L. Stankoven12:35J. Blake16:05T. Hall12:46

Line 4M. Jankowski9:45W. Carrier9:36E. Robinson2:02

Pair 1K. Miller20:33S. Walker17:46

Pair 2J. Slavin18:18J. Chatfield17:07

Pair 3A. Nikishin14:36J. Nystrom13:08

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BUF 2.9, CAR 3.7	BUF 1, CAR 2
Total goals	6.6	3
Shots on goal	BUF 23.2, CAR 32.8	BUF 18, CAR 29
Win chance	CAR 63%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	3.2	6	1.00	0	39%	0
CAR S. Jarvis	2.8	6	0.88	1	33%	1
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.7	1	0.82	2	28%	1
CAR N. Ehlers	2.7	2	0.86	0	29%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.4	0	0.98	2	33%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.2	3	0.69	1	14%	1
CAR S. Walker	2.2	1	0.29	1	8%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.2	0	0.74	0	27%	0
BUF J. Doan	2.0	0	0.64	0	22%	0
BUF J. Zucker	2.0	0	0.66	1	23%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	2.0	1	0.49	0	19%	0
CAR J. Blake	1.9	2	0.49	0	21%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.8	3	0.52	0	20%	0
BUF J. Quinn	1.7	0	0.51	1	18%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.6	1	0.44	0	13%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.6	2	0.47	0	10%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.6	3	0.47	0	18%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.5	1	0.43	0	17%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.4	0	0.27	0	8%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.4	1	0.35	0	15%	0
CAR A. Nikishin	1.4	3	0.39	0	9%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.4	0	0.33	0	7%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.4	1	0.27	0	14%	0
BUF O. Power	1.2	2	0.33	0	6%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.2	1	0.56	0	18%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.1	1	0.30	0	6%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.1	2	0.43	0	11%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	1.0	1	0.29	0	14%	0
BUF N. Ostlund	1.0	0	0.39	0	15%	0
CAR J. Nystrom	1.0	1	0.23	0	3%	0
BUF P. Krebs	0.9	1	0.29	0	9%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.7	0	0.14	0	6%	0
BUF T. Kozak	0.6	0	0.16	0	9%	0
BUF Z. Metsa	0.4	0	0.09	0	3%	0
BUF J. Bryson	0.3	1	0.09	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.