Game Recap: BUF 3, CBJ 6, October 1, 2026

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Game Recap

BUF3

FinalThu, Oct 1, 2026Every game that night

CBJ6

CBJ beat BUF 6-3, with the chances close: 2.69 expected goals to 2.81. M. Knies led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). J. Greaves stopped 23 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BUF	1	2	0	3
CBJ	3	1	2	6

1st 7:21BUFM. Samuelsson0.04 xG
1st 12:51CBJC. Sillinger0.21 xG
1st 17:58CBJM. KniesPP0.21 xG
1st 18:44CBJA. Fantilli0.06 xG
2nd 1:25BUFJ. Quinn0.12 xG
2nd 7:45CBJM. Knies0.09 xG
2nd 13:14BUFK. Helenius0.10 xG
3rd 14:21CBJS. MonahanPP0.25 xG
3rd 17:53CBJM. OlivierEN0.55 xG

Team Stats

BUFCBJ

26Shots on goal23

2.81Expected goals2.69

56Shot attempts39

195v5 shots on goal14

0/5Power play2/3

21Hits25

8Blocked shots15

11Penalty minutes15

15Giveaways12

2Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 2.81 xGCBJ 2.69 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF26 on goal, 3 scored

CBJ23 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Ostlund	C	0	2	2	3	0	0	+1	0	16:42	2:11
J. Quinn	RW	1	0	1	4	1	0	-1	0	20:46	4:42
Z. Benson	LW	0	1	1	1	2	1	-1	0	18:34	4:27
R. McLeod	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	16:41	1:51
K. Helenius	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	+2	0	15:09	2:10
T. Thompson	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	2	19:46	4:22
J. Doan	RW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	19:06	4:25
J. Norris	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	16:19	2:06
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	14:58	0:02
J.Kulich	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	8:45	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	1	4	1	-2	0	8:11	0:00
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	7:43	0:00
O. Power	D	0	2	2	0	0	0	+2	0	25:25	1:38
M. Samuelsson	D	1	0	1	1	0	0	-2	4	18:21	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	0	0	0	4	2	0	-1	0	25:58	5:01
L. Crevier	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	16:14	0:00
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	14:27	0:00
Z. Metsa	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	5	12:54	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
U. Luukkonen	22	17	5	.773	59:08	Loss
C. Ellis	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Coyle	C	0	3	3	0	2	1	+2	0	19:04	2:28
M. Knies	LW	2	1	3	4	0	0	0	0	16:06	2:21
A. Fantilli	C	1	0	1	2	6	1	0	0	17:28	2:24
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	1	1	0	1	0	-1	0	15:45	1:00
S. Monahan	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	15:31	1:03
C. Sillinger	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+2	4	15:21	0:00
K. Johnson	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	2	14:53	2:23
M. Olivier	RW	1	0	1	3	3	0	+2	7	14:32	0:00
D. Voronkov	LW	0	1	1	0	4	0	0	0	10:44	1:02
D. Heinen	LW	0	0	0	2	0	3	-1	0	12:11	0:00
C. Garland	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	12:09	1:01
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	9:21	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	0	2	2	3	0	1	+2	0	28:46	2:25
D. Mateychuk	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	27:28	1:05
E. Andrae	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	15:37	0:00
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	+1	2	20:15	0:05
E. Gudbranson	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	17:44	0:03
J. Christiansen	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	7:05	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Greaves	26	23	3	.885	60:00	Win
C. Talbot	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BUF

Line 1T. Thompson14:50J. Doan14:35J. Norris12:07

Line 2J. Quinn13:34Z. Benson13:18N. Ostlund12:41

Line 3P. Krebs14:28K. Helenius12:10R. McLeod12:26

Line 4S. Carrick7:21B. Malenstyn7:39J.Kulich8:01

Pair 1M. Samuelsson16:45R. Dahlin19:41

Pair 2L. Crevier13:51O. Power20:45

Pair 3M. Grzelcyk13:21Z. Metsa10:47

CBJ

Line 1M. Olivier12:56C. Sillinger13:51C. Coyle12:52

Line 2A. Fantilli14:07M. Knies13:00K. Johnson12:30

Line 3S. Monahan11:00V. Nichushkin12:22D. Voronkov9:16

Line 4D. Heinen10:26R. Lomberg9:21C. Garland11:08

Pair 1Z. Werenski21:18D. Mateychuk23:25

Pair 2C. Soucy17:53E. Andrae15:37

Pair 3E. Gudbranson11:22J. Christiansen5:56

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 17 overs hit (47%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
BUF T. Thompson	3.5	+126	-150	4	Over
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.5	+105	-130	3	Under
BUF J. Doan	2.5	+130	-160	3	Over
BUF J. Quinn	2.5	+100	-118	4	Over
BUF R. Dahlin	2.5	-130	+102	4	Over
CBJ C. Coyle	1.5	-115	-110	0	Under
CBJ C. Garland	1.5	-130	+115	0	Under
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.5	+120	-140	2	Over
BUF J. Norris	1.5	-110	-105	1	Under
BUF K. Helenius	1.5	-105	-125	2	Over
CBJ K. Johnson	1.5	-140	+120	1	Under
BUF L. Crevier	1.5	+160	-220	1	Under
CBJ M. Olivier	1.5	+120	-148	3	Over
BUF N. Ostlund	1.5	+118	-140	3	Over
CBJ S. Monahan	1.5	+100	-110	1	Under
CBJ V. Nichushkin	1.5	-155	+142	0	Under
BUF Z. Benson	1.5	-170	+135	1	Under

6 of 31 overs hit (19%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.5	+1400	-2800	0	Under
CBJ C. Coyle	0.5	+340	-550	0	Under
CBJ C. Garland	0.5	+360	-650	0	Under
CBJ C. Sillinger	0.5	+475	-800	1	Over
CBJ D. Heinen	0.5	+850	-1400	0	Under
CBJ D. Mateychuk	0.5	+725	-2000	0	Under
CBJ D. Voronkov	0.5	+450	-700	0	Under
CBJ E. Gudbranson	0.5	+1600	-2800	0	Under
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.5	+1700	-3500	0	Under
BUF J. Doan	0.5	+250	-300	0	Under
BUF J. Norris	0.5	+350	-475	0	Under
BUF J. Quinn	0.5	+295	-370	1	Over
BUF J.Kulich	0.5	+550	-800	0	Under
BUF K. Helenius	0.5	+390	-600	1	Over
CBJ K. Johnson	0.5	+310	-420	0	Under
BUF L. Crevier	0.5	+1100	-3500	0	Under
CBJ M. Olivier	0.5	+425	-800	1	Over
BUF M. Samuelsson	0.5	+1300	-2000	1	Over
BUF N. Ostlund	0.5	+400	-600	0	Under
BUF O. Power	0.5	+950	-2500	0	Under
BUF P. Krebs	0.5	+650	-1600	0	Under
BUF R. Dahlin	0.5	+410	-600	0	Under
CBJ R. Lomberg	0.5	+1000	-1200	0	Under
BUF R. McLeod	0.5	+430	-700	0	Under
BUF S. Carrick	0.5	+750	-2500	0	Under
CBJ S. Monahan	0.5	+375	-650	1	Over
BUF T. Thompson	0.5	+180	-190	0	Under
CBJ V. Nichushkin	0.5	+330	-475	0	Under
BUF Z. Benson	0.5	+300	-370	0	Under
BUF Z. Metsa	0.5	+1100	-5000	0	Under
CBJ Z. Werenski	0.5	+360	-550	0	Under

9 of 16 overs hit (56%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
CBJ C. Coyle	0.5	+200	-240	3	Over
CBJ C. Garland	0.5	+270	-350	0	Under
CBJ D. Mateychuk	0.5	+255	-300	1	Over
BUF J. Doan	0.5	+215	-250	0	Under
BUF J. Norris	0.5	+215	-295	0	Under
BUF J. Quinn	0.5	+185	-220	0	Under
CBJ K. Johnson	0.5	+215	-230	1	Over
BUF N. Ostlund	0.5	+280	-400	2	Over
BUF O. Power	0.5	+225	-375	2	Over
BUF R. Dahlin	0.5	-104	-115	0	Under
BUF R. McLeod	0.5	+255	-360	1	Over
CBJ S. Monahan	0.5	+260	-300	0	Under
BUF T. Thompson	0.5	+115	-155	0	Under
CBJ V. Nichushkin	0.5	+230	-265	1	Over
BUF Z. Benson	0.5	+200	-240	1	Over
CBJ Z. Werenski	0.5	-115	-105	2	Over

11 of 16 overs hit (69%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
CBJ C. Coyle	0.5	+115	-140	3	Over
CBJ C. Garland	0.5	+150	-170	0	Under
CBJ D. Mateychuk	0.5	+175	-200	1	Over
BUF J. Doan	0.5	-105	-115	0	Under
BUF J. Norris	0.5	+115	-135	0	Under
BUF J. Quinn	0.5	+100	-115	1	Over
CBJ K. Johnson	0.5	-104	-120	1	Over
BUF N. Ostlund	0.5	+150	-190	2	Over
BUF O. Power	0.5	+180	-250	2	Over
BUF R. Dahlin	0.5	-150	+120	0	Under
BUF R. McLeod	0.5	+140	-175	1	Over
CBJ S. Monahan	0.5	+145	-155	1	Over
BUF T. Thompson	0.5	-180	+145	0	Under
CBJ V. Nichushkin	0.5	+115	-140	1	Over
BUF Z. Benson	0.5	+105	-125	1	Over
CBJ Z. Werenski	0.5	-180	+145	2	Over

4 of 16 overs hit (25%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
CBJ C. Coyle	0.5	+330	-650	1	Over
CBJ C. Garland	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
CBJ D. Mateychuk	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
BUF J. Doan	0.5	+290	-450	0	Under
BUF J. Norris	0.5	+400	-1100	0	Under
BUF J. Quinn	0.5	+210	-290	0	Under
CBJ K. Johnson	0.5	+350	-600	0	Under
BUF N. Ostlund	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
BUF O. Power	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
BUF R. Dahlin	0.5	+155	-225	0	Under
BUF R. McLeod	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
CBJ S. Monahan	0.5	+475	-1400	1	Over
BUF T. Thompson	0.5	+200	-275	0	Under
CBJ V. Nichushkin	0.5	+500	-1600	1	Over
BUF Z. Benson	0.5	+290	-450	0	Under
CBJ Z. Werenski	0.5	+195	-275	1	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
CBJ J. Greaves	25.5	-118	-110	23	Under
BUF U. Luukkonen	25.5	-112	-118	17	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BUF 3.3, CBJ 3.2	BUF 3, CBJ 6
Total goals	6.5	9
Shots on goal	BUF 27.7, CBJ 29.0	BUF 26, CBJ 23
Win chance	BUF 51%	CBJ won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.4	3	0.94	2	19%	0
BUF T. Thompson	3.2	4	0.93	0	37%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.7	2	0.73	1	29%	1
BUF R. Dahlin	2.7	4	0.87	0	22%	0
BUF J. Quinn	2.3	4	0.58	1	20%	1
BUF J. Doan	2.1	3	0.60	0	22%	0
BUF Z. Benson	2.1	1	0.62	1	19%	0
BUF J.Kulich	2.0	1	0.39	0	19%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.9	0	0.64	3	22%	0
BUF K. Helenius	1.8	2	0.39	1	15%	1
CBJ V. Nichushkin	1.8	0	0.52	1	23%	0
CBJ M. Knies	1.7	4	0.69	3	25%	2
BUF J. Norris	1.7	1	0.59	0	26%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	1.6	1	0.53	1	19%	1
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.6	3	0.37	1	13%	1
CBJ C. Garland	1.5	0	0.38	0	15%	0
BUF L. Crevier	1.4	1	0.28	0	9%	0
BUF O. Power	1.4	0	0.42	2	9%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.4	1	0.41	1	11%	1
CBJ M. Olivier	1.3	3	0.32	1	15%	1
CBJ K. Johnson	1.3	1	0.35	1	13%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.2	0	0.54	1	16%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.1	2	0.35	1	11%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	1.1	0	0.30	1	14%	0
CBJ D. Heinen	1.1	2	0.32	0	14%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.0	0	0.37	0	11%	0
CBJ R. Lomberg	1.0	0	0.17	0	8%	0
CBJ E. Gudbranson	1.0	0	0.19	0	4%	0
BUF N. Ostlund	0.9	3	0.36	2	13%	0
BUF S. Carrick	0.9	0	0.18	0	8%	0
CBJ C. Soucy	0.8	2	0.16	0	5%	0
BUF M. Grzelcyk	0.8	0	0.21	0	3%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.8	1	0.16	0	7%	0
BUF Z. Metsa	0.6	0	0.17	0	7%	0
CBJ E. Andrae	0.6	0	0.15	1	2%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.5	0	0.08	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.