Game Recap: BUF 4, CGY 7, December 8, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

BUF4

FinalMon, Dec 8, 2025Every game that night

CGY7

CGY beat BUF 7-4, and the chances backed it up: 4.01 expected goals to 3.08. Y. Sharangovich led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). D. Wolf stopped 25 of 29.

Team Stats

BUFCGY

29Shots on goal28

3.08Expected goals4.01

66Shot attempts46

215v5 shots on goal18

2/6Power play2/5

19Hits17

8Blocked shots17

16Penalty minutes16

9Giveaways14

4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 3.08 xGCGY 4.01 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF29 on goal, 4 scored

CGY27 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Norris	C	0	2	2	2	0	0	-2	0	17:57	4:57
J. Zucker	LW	0	2	2	2	1	0	-2	2	17:05	4:57
A. Tuch	RW	1	0	1	4	0	1	-3	0	21:42	2:54
T. Thompson	C	1	0	1	3	1	1	-4	0	21:22	5:02
J. Doan	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	2	15:39	4:52
P. Krebs	C	0	1	1	0	4	1	+1	4	13:21	0:18
R. McLeod	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	17:14	2:20
J. Quinn	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	2	16:19	2:36
Z. Benson	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	+1	0	14:08	2:28
J. Greenway	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-2	2	9:44	0:00
T. Kozak	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	7:35	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	2	7:30	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	1	1	2	2	1	1	-3	0	24:51	5:46
O. Power	D	1	0	1	2	1	0	-2	0	21:17	1:02
J. Bryson	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	9:00	0:00
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	20:24	0:00
B. Byram	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	19:54	1:05
C. Timmins	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	17:17	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
U. Luukkonen	22	17	5	.773	40:00	Loss
A. Lyon	4	4	0	1.000	17:29

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kadri	C	1	2	3	2	0	0	+2	0	18:32	3:50
Y. Sharangovich	C	2	1	3	2	0	0	+2	0	15:27	0:16
M. Coronato	RW	0	2	2	2	0	1	-1	2	16:10	4:23
J. Huberdeau	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	2	19:25	4:26
B. Coleman	LW	0	1	1	4	0	1	+2	0	17:02	0:48
M. Backlund	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+2	2	16:29	0:17
J. Farabee	LW	0	1	1	2	0	2	+2	0	15:11	0:00
M. Frost	C	0	1	1	0	0	2	-1	2	14:55	3:42
C. Zary	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:51	1:00
J. Beecher	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:10	0:00
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	7:57	0:00
A. Klapka	RW	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	2	6:58	0:04
Y. Kuznetsov	D	1	1	2	1	1	2	+1	0	22:12	0:05
R. Andersson	D	1	0	1	4	0	3	+2	2	25:49	3:11
M. Weegar	D	0	1	1	1	4	0	+1	0	22:11	1:32
K. Bahl	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	+2	2	24:14	0:01
B. Pachal	D	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	10:40	0:00
J. Hanley	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	10:24	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Wolf	29	25	4	.862	60:00	Win
D. Cooley	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BUF

Line 1A. Tuch13:36T. Thompson12:35J. Greenway7:50

Line 2R. McLeod11:28J. Quinn11:51J. Zucker11:09

Line 3J. Norris9:40Z. Benson10:47J. Doan9:30

Line 4B. Malenstyn6:13T. Kozak6:49P. Krebs11:04

Pair 1M. Samuelsson14:44R. Dahlin16:20

Pair 2C. Timmins13:44B. Byram14:11

Pair 3J. Bryson9:00O. Power13:39

CGY

Line 1M. Frost11:13M. Coronato11:47J. Huberdeau11:58

Line 2N. Kadri11:54Y. Sharangovich11:13J. Farabee10:08

Line 3M. Backlund11:08B. Coleman10:56C. Zary10:11

Line 4R. Lomberg7:57J. Beecher7:04A. Klapka6:54

Pair 1M. Weegar15:08Y. Kuznetsov15:47

Pair 2R. Andersson14:43K. Bahl15:53

Pair 3J. Hanley9:36B. Pachal10:40

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownPeyton Krebs BUF Plays in his hometown1 A, 0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BUF 3.0, CGY 3.1	BUF 4, CGY 7
Total goals	6.1	11
Shots on goal	BUF 27.9, CGY 30.6	BUF 29, CGY 28
Win chance	CGY 53%	CGY won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CGY N. Kadri	3.2	2	0.90	3	31%	1
BUF T. Thompson	3.1	3	0.82	1	36%	1
CGY M. Coronato	2.4	2	0.62	2	25%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.4	2	0.67	2	13%	1
CGY B. Coleman	2.3	4	0.55	1	24%	0
CGY M. Backlund	2.3	2	0.57	1	20%	1
BUF J. Doan	2.3	1	0.54	1	20%	0
BUF J. Zucker	2.2	2	0.62	2	24%	0
CGY R. Andersson	2.2	4	0.60	1	14%	1
CGY M. Weegar	2.2	1	0.49	1	11%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.2	4	0.67	1	26%	1
CGY J. Farabee	2.0	2	0.47	1	20%	0
BUF J. Quinn	1.9	1	0.56	0	20%	0
CGY M. Frost	1.8	0	0.57	1	19%	0
CGY J. Huberdeau	1.8	2	0.79	1	24%	1
BUF J. Norris	1.8	2	0.58	2	28%	0
CGY C. Zary	1.7	1	0.46	0	20%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.7	2	0.53	3	24%	2
BUF Z. Benson	1.6	3	0.42	0	13%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.4	2	0.54	0	19%	0
BUF O. Power	1.4	2	0.34	1	5%	1
BUF B. Byram	1.2	1	0.41	0	10%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.2	0	0.26	0	5%	0
CGY Y. Kuznetsov	1.2	1	0.26	2	7%	1
BUF J. Greenway	1.1	2	0.25	0	11%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	1.1	1	0.18	0	8%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.0	0	0.26	1	8%	0
CGY K. Bahl	1.0	2	0.27	0	6%	0
CGY A. Klapka	1.0	2	0.25	0	12%	0
BUF C. Timmins	1.0	1	0.24	0	3%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	0.9	0	0.15	0	7%	0
BUF T. Kozak	0.9	1	0.25	0	13%	0
CGY B. Pachal	0.8	0	0.18	0	4%	0
CGY J. Beecher	0.7	0	0.16	0	8%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.6	1	0.15	0	3%	0
BUF J. Bryson	0.3	1	0.11	1	1%	0

Shots on goal: 26 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.