Game Recap: BUF 5, CHI 1, April 13, 2026

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Game Recap

BUF5

FinalMon, Apr 13, 2026Every game that night

CHI1

BUF beat CHI 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.13 expected goals to 1.86. BUF outshot CHI 26 to 16. T. Thompson led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). T. Thompson had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.2. U. Luukkonen stopped 15 of 16.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BUF	1	1	3	5
CHI	1	0	0	1

1st 3:58CHIR. GreeneSH0.19 xG
1st 19:02BUFJ. Norris0.12 xG
2nd 13:00BUFT. Thompson0.19 xG
3rd 5:38BUFA. Tuch0.16 xG
3rd 11:13BUFT. Thompson0.16 xG
3rd 18:35BUFR. McLeod0.08 xG

Team Stats

BUFCHI

26Shots on goal16

3.13Expected goals1.86

49Shot attempts39

245v5 shots on goal8

0/2Power play0/5

20Hits8

10Blocked shots8

8Penalty minutes4

12Giveaways23

8Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 3.13 xGCHI 1.86 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF26 on goal, 5 scored

CHI16 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Tuch	RW	1	1	2	3	0	0	+1	0	21:23	2:08
T. Thompson	C	2	0	2	6	2	0	+2	0	17:31	2:07
R. McLeod	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	16:08	1:49
Z. Benson	LW	0	1	1	4	0	1	+2	0	14:22	1:52
J. Zucker	LW	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	2	14:09	2:12
J. Doan	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+2	0	13:29	1:49
J. Norris	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	0	12:35	1:48
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	+2	0	14:32	0:00
J. Quinn	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:02	2:04
J. Greenway	LW	0	0	0	1	5	1	0	0	12:59	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	2	11:32	0:00
T. Kozak	C	0	0	0	1	5	1	0	0	10:49	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	0	2	2	0	0	0	+2	2	20:59	2:14
O. Power	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+2	0	22:56	0:00
L. Stanley	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	2	15:37	0:00
B. Byram	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+2	0	21:11	1:57
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+2	0	18:59	0:00
C. Timmins	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16:51	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
U. Luukkonen	16	15	1	.938	60:00	Win
C. Ellis	0	0	0	–	0:00

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Greene	C	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	17:07	2:04
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	0	15:39	0:00
C. Bedard	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-3	0	22:31	6:41
A. Frondell	C	0	0	0	5	0	0	-2	0	19:06	6:11
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	18:44	6:43
T. Teravainen	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	17:45	6:06
F. Nazar	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	17:35	6:33
N. Lardis	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	15:18	2:27
R. Donato	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:49	2:49
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	13:17	2:05
L. Slaggert	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	11:03	0:00
D. Toninato	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	9:32	0:00
W. Kaiser	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-3	0	20:17	0:00
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	19:43	0:02
L. Crevier	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	2	18:41	0:08
S. Rinzel	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	2	16:16	2:06
E. Del Mastro	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	16:13	0:00
K. Korchinski	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:43	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Knight	26	21	5	.808	59:41	Loss
A. Soderblom	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BUF

Line 1A. Tuch15:18T. Thompson15:17P. Krebs14:24

Line 2J. Doan11:40Z. Benson11:47J. Norris10:47

Line 3J. Zucker11:31R. McLeod11:06J. Quinn11:39

Line 4J. Greenway9:06T. Kozak8:59B. Malenstyn9:01

Pair 1B. Byram18:19O. Power18:29

Pair 2R. Dahlin17:02M. Samuelsson14:21

Pair 3L. Stanley13:45C. Timmins12:19

CHI

Line 1R. Greene12:29C. Bedard15:35N. Lardis12:51

Line 2T. Bertuzzi12:05A. Frondell12:59I. Mikheyev13:48

Line 3R. Donato11:00F. Nazar10:26A. Burakovsky10:53

Line 4D. Toninato9:32L. Slaggert9:40T. Teravainen9:36

Pair 1A. Vlasic17:26L. Crevier17:17

Pair 2W. Kaiser17:52S. Rinzel14:10

Pair 3E. Mastro14:06K. Korchinski13:05

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamBowen Byram CHI First game against BUF since he left (his team until May 2026)1 SOG
BirthdayRasmus Dahlin BUF Turns 26 that day2 A, 0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BUF 3.7, CHI 2.9	BUF 5, CHI 1
Total goals	6.6	6
Shots on goal	BUF 30.1, CHI 26.4	BUF 26, CHI 16
Win chance	BUF 62%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	3.2	6	1.03	2	40%	2
CHI C. Bedard	3.1	0	0.98	0	31%	0
CHI A. Frondell	2.8	5	0.81	0	24%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.5	3	0.84	2	32%	1
BUF J. Quinn	2.4	1	0.71	0	23%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.4	0	0.91	2	21%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	2.2	1	0.77	0	31%	0
BUF J. Zucker	2.1	2	0.73	1	27%	0
CHI F. Nazar	2.0	0	0.62	0	22%	0
BUF J. Doan	1.8	1	0.54	1	21%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.7	0	0.50	1	23%	0
CHI S. Rinzel	1.7	1	0.29	0	6%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.7	4	0.54	1	16%	0
BUF J. Norris	1.6	2	0.68	1	27%	1
CHI R. Donato	1.6	0	0.49	0	22%	0
CHI N. Lardis	1.6	1	0.40	0	20%	0
BUF O. Power	1.4	0	0.38	1	8%	0
CHI L. Crevier	1.4	1	0.27	0	6%	0
CHI R. Greene	1.4	1	0.35	1	14%	1
CHI T. Teravainen	1.3	1	0.60	0	21%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.3	1	0.49	0	12%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.3	0	0.39	0	9%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.2	1	0.65	1	19%	1
BUF P. Krebs	1.2	1	0.45	0	13%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	1.1	0	0.23	0	7%	0
BUF L. Stanley	1.1	0	0.25	1	6%	0
CHI A. Burakovsky	1.1	1	0.39	0	15%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.0	0	0.25	0	3%	0
BUF C. Timmins	1.0	0	0.27	0	4%	0
BUF J. Greenway	0.9	1	0.23	0	9%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.9	2	0.20	0	8%	0
CHI L. Slaggert	0.9	0	0.16	0	7%	0
CHI K. Korchinski	0.8	0	0.13	0	4%	0
CHI E. Mastro	0.8	3	0.14	0	4%	0
CHI D. Toninato	0.7	1	0.19	0	8%	0
BUF T. Kozak	0.6	1	0.16	0	9%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.