Game Recap: BUF 3, COL 6, November 13, 2025

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Game Recap

BUF3

FinalThu, Nov 13, 2025Every game that night

COL6

COL beat BUF 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.44 expected goals to 3.22. COL outshot BUF 34 to 21. M. Necas led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). N. MacKinnon had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 4.2. M. Blackwood stopped 18 of 21.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BUF	2	1	0	3
COL	3	1	2	6

1st 0:52COLM. Necas0.17 xG
1st 6:10COLA. Lehkonen0.13 xG
1st 7:47BUFB. Byram0.62 xG
1st 9:46COLB. Nelson0.18 xG
1st 13:28BUFJ. Greenway0.17 xG
2nd 14:56BUFT. ThompsonPP0.16 xG
2nd 16:22COLG. Brindley0.02 xG
3rd 16:53COLM. Necas0.21 xG
3rd 18:11COLG. LandeskogEN0.91 xG

Team Stats

BUFCOL

21Shots on goal34

3.22Expected goals4.44

54Shot attempts72

155v5 shots on goal25

1/4Power play0/2

16Hits22

11Blocked shots13

4Penalty minutes6

22Giveaways13

9Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 3.22 xGCOL 4.44 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF20 on goal, 3 scored

COL34 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Thompson	C	1	1	2	5	0	1	-1	0	18:37	6:11
I. Rosen	RW	0	1	1	2	2	0	-2	0	17:33	5:53
J. Greenway	LW	1	0	1	1	0	1	-2	0	16:07	0:20
A. Tuch	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	15:28	0:52
J. Doan	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	-1	0	14:06	0:56
P. Krebs	C	0	1	1	0	4	1	-2	0	13:21	1:04
N. Ostlund	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	18:18	5:44
J. Quinn	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:15	5:57
R. McLeod	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	15:40	0:51
T. Kozak	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	2	14:22	0:17
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	1	4	1	-1	0	11:54	0:00
J. Dunne	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	11:13	0:00
B. Byram	D	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0	24:21	5:46
O. Power	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	-2	2	20:12	1:22
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	-3	0	23:13	0:17
C. Timmins	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	21:09	0:00
M. Kesselring	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:48	0:00
J. Bryson	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	10:18	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Lyon	3	1	2	.333	6:10
U. Luukkonen	30	27	3	.900	52:55	Loss

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Necas	C	2	2	4	2	2	1	+4	0	21:37	3:34
G. Brindley	C	1	1	2	2	2	0	+1	0	13:02	0:29
A. Lehkonen	LW	1	0	1	4	0	1	+3	0	22:28	3:31
N. MacKinnon	C	0	1	1	8	3	1	+3	2	21:04	3:33
B. Nelson	C	1	0	1	3	0	1	+2	0	17:10	0:27
R. Colton	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	12:44	0:28
G. Landeskog	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	2	12:32	0:22
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	14:28	0:00
V. Olofsson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	13:34	3:32
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	2	12:10	0:00
Z. Bardakov	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	8:52	0:00
T. Makar	LW	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	7:11	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+2	0	25:32	3:44
D. Toews	D	0	1	1	1	3	1	+2	0	22:07	0:16
B. Burns	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	18:03	0:04
J. Manson	D	0	1	1	1	3	1	+1	0	17:54	0:00
S. Girard	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	16:54	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	+1	0	15:32	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	21	18	3	.857	60:00	Win
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BUF

Line 1J. Doan12:37T. Kozak12:52J. Greenway12:28

Line 2A. Tuch12:56T. Thompson12:00R. McLeod12:47

Line 3I. Rosen11:07N. Ostlund12:01J. Quinn11:01

Line 4P. Krebs11:44B. Malenstyn10:50J. Dunne11:13

Pair 1C. Timmins17:39B. Byram18:13

Pair 2M. Samuelsson18:41O. Power18:34

Pair 3J. Bryson9:53M. Kesselring13:19

COL

Line 1N. MacKinnon17:30M. Necas17:19A. Lehkonen15:42

Line 2R. Colton12:16G. Brindley12:33B. Nelson12:21

Line 3G. Landeskog11:15J. Drury10:39V. Olofsson9:52

Line 4P. Kelly9:24Z. Bardakov7:58T. Makar7:11

Pair 1D. Toews17:05C. Makar17:19

Pair 2S. Girard16:37S. Malinski15:32

Pair 3B. Burns14:43J. Manson14:39

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BUF 2.7, COL 4.3	BUF 3, COL 6
Total goals	7.0	9
Shots on goal	BUF 24.7, COL 34.6	BUF 21, COL 34
Win chance	COL 73%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.2	8	1.65	1	43%	0
COL C. Makar	3.1	2	1.33	1	30%	0
BUF T. Thompson	3.1	5	0.78	2	36%	1
COL M. Necas	2.7	2	1.12	4	33%	2
COL A. Lehkonen	2.4	4	0.84	1	33%	1
COL V. Olofsson	2.3	1	0.70	0	28%	0
BUF J. Doan	2.2	1	0.46	1	18%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.1	2	0.67	1	27%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.1	3	0.77	1	32%	1
COL B. Burns	2.0	1	0.45	1	10%	0
COL R. Colton	1.9	1	0.50	1	21%	0
BUF J. Quinn	1.7	0	0.51	0	19%	0
COL G. Landeskog	1.7	2	0.65	1	25%	1
COL J. Drury	1.7	0	0.42	0	15%	0
COL J. Manson	1.7	1	0.36	1	10%	0
COL D. Toews	1.7	1	0.64	1	13%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.6	1	0.31	1	7%	0
BUF I. Rosen	1.4	2	0.32	1	15%	0
BUF O. Power	1.3	0	0.35	1	5%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.3	0	0.29	0	12%	0
BUF M. Kesselring	1.3	0	0.22	0	4%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.3	1	0.49	0	18%	0
COL G. Brindley	1.2	2	0.37	2	15%	1
COL S. Girard	1.2	1	0.34	1	6%	0
BUF J. Greenway	1.2	1	0.23	1	10%	1
BUF P. Krebs	1.0	0	0.28	1	10%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.0	4	0.37	1	8%	1
BUF N. Ostlund	1.0	2	0.24	0	11%	0
BUF C. Timmins	0.9	0	0.24	0	3%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	0.9	1	0.20	0	4%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.9	1	0.13	0	6%	0
COL Z. Bardakov	0.8	1	0.30	0	8%	0
BUF J. Dunne	0.7	0	0.10	0	7%	0
BUF T. Kozak	0.7	1	0.20	0	12%	0
BUF J. Bryson	0.3	0	0.10	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.