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Game Recap
BUF4
DAL1
BUF beat DAL 4-1, with the chances close: 2.88 expected goals to 3.02. T. Thompson led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). J. Robertson had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 3.2. U. Luukkonen stopped 28 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| DAL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 0:15DALM. Bourque0.46 xG
- 2nd 7:44BUFJ. Doan0.13 xG
- 2nd 17:05BUFB. Byram0.10 xG
- 3rd 9:21BUFT. Thompson0.22 xG
- 3rd 11:35BUFT. Thompson0.09 xG
Team Stats
BUFDAL
31Shots on goal29
2.88Expected goals3.02
59Shot attempts46
295v5 shots on goal26
0/2Power play0/2
24Hits15
9Blocked shots12
4Penalty minutes4
13Giveaways12
4Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BUF 2.88 xGDAL 3.02 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Thompson | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 2 | 18:45 | 2:06 |
| J. Doan | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 15:27 | 2:06 |
| N. Ostlund | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:56 | 0:00 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:21 | 1:54 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:35 | 1:54 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:11 | 2:06 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:21 | 1:54 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:59 | 0:00 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:36 | 0:00 |
| J. Norris | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:07 | 2:06 |
| J. Greenway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:28 | 0:00 |
| J. Dunne | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:15 | 0:00 |
| B. Byram | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 24:36 | 1:54 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 24:12 | 1:54 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 24:43 | 2:06 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:56 | 0:00 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:04 | 0:00 |
| Z. Metsa | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:28 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Luukkonen | 29 | 28 | 1 | .966 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. Ellis | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Robertson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:16 | 3:32 |
| M. Bourque | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:17 | 1:08 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:36 | 3:28 |
| W. Johnston | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 16:59 | 2:51 |
| R. Hintz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:32 | 1:56 |
| M. Duchene | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 15:43 | 2:04 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:17 | 0:00 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:54 | 0:00 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:33 | 0:00 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12:33 | 0:00 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 11:27 | 0:29 |
| J. Hryckowian | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 10:10 | 0:00 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 24:50 | 3:08 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:58 | 0:20 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 22:58 | 1:04 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:37 | 0:00 |
| N. Lundkvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:53 | 0:00 |
| A. Petrovic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 13:27 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. DeSmith | 31 | 27 | 4 | .871 | 60:00 | Loss |
| J. Oettinger | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
BUF
Line 1T. Thompson16:39P. Krebs13:59J. Doan13:21
Line 3A. Tuch14:29N. Ostlund12:56J. Norris11:01
Line 4B. Malenstyn11:33J. Dunne11:15J. Greenway10:26
Pair 2M. Samuelsson20:22B. Byram20:12
DAL
Line 1J. Robertson17:44R. Hintz14:36M. Bourque14:09
Line 2W. Johnston14:08M. Rantanen17:08S. Steel11:36
Line 3R. Faksa11:03O. Bäck10:35C. Blackwell10:50
Line 4J. Benn10:58M. Duchene13:39J. Hryckowian9:23
Pair 1T. Harley20:57N. Lundkvist15:53
Pair 2M. Heiskanen18:39E. Lindell19:34
Pair 3A. Petrovic13:27I. Lyubushkin15:41
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BUF 2.8, DAL 3.2 | BUF 4, DAL 1 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | BUF 27.7, DAL 26.1 | BUF 31, DAL 29 |
| Win chance | DAL 56% | BUF won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL J. Robertson | 3.2 | 8 | 1.13 | 1 | 39% | 0 |
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.1 | 7 | 0.85 | 3 | 36% | 2 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.7 | 5 | 0.69 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DAL M. Rantanen | 2.4 | 1 | 1.16 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.3 | 1 | 0.90 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| BUF J. Doan | 2.3 | 3 | 0.55 | 2 | 20% | 1 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.3 | 2 | 0.69 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 2.1 | 2 | 0.80 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 2.1 | 1 | 0.89 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.7 | 0 | 0.36 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.7 | 3 | 0.39 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.7 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BUF J. Norris | 1.6 | 0 | 0.58 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.6 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 1.5 | 2 | 0.54 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.5 | 0 | 0.56 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| BUF M. Kesselring | 1.5 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.5 | 1 | 0.65 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.3 | 2 | 0.42 | 2 | 12% | 1 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.3 | 3 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.3 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DAL N. Lundkvist | 1.2 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL J. Hryckowian | 1.2 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 1.2 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.2 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF N. Ostlund | 1.2 | 0 | 0.31 | 2 | 16% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 1.1 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.0 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.0 | 4 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF J. Greenway | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL A. Petrovic | 1.0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF J. Dunne | 0.9 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL R. Faksa | 0.8 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.7 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.7 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Metsa | 0.5 | 1 | 0.06 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.