Game Recap: BUF 5, DET 4 (OT), November 15, 2025

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Game Recap

BUF5

Final/OTSat, Nov 15, 2025Every game that night

DET4

BUF beat DET 5-4 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.22 expected goals to 3.04. L. Raymond led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). T. Thompson had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.3. C. Ellis stopped 24 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
BUF	1	1	2	1	5
DET	1	3	0	0	4

1st 10:23DETP. Kane0.17 xG
1st 10:52BUFA. Tuch0.39 xG
2nd 3:52DETA. DeBrincat0.04 xG
2nd 5:56DETD. Larkin0.18 xG
2nd 8:50DETA. DeBrincatPP0.17 xG
2nd 17:58BUFJ. Doan0.09 xG
3rd 4:25BUFT. Thompson0.19 xG
3rd 9:28BUFR. McLeodSH0.18 xG
OT 1:05BUFM. Samuelsson0.20 xG

Team Stats

BUFDET

27Shots on goal28

3.22Expected goals3.04

54Shot attempts57

195v5 shots on goal19

0/4Power play1/5

19Hits18

16Blocked shots14

8Penalty minutes8

15Giveaways10

8Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 3.22 xGDET 3.04 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF27 on goal, 5 scored

DET27 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Thompson	C	1	1	2	6	1	0	+2	0	18:07	4:28
J. Doan	RW	1	1	2	4	2	0	+2	0	16:10	1:43
R. McLeod	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	19:20	1:34
A. Tuch	RW	1	0	1	4	1	1	+1	0	18:20	1:16
J. Quinn	RW	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	16:42	4:53
N. Ostlund	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	15:14	4:30
I. Rosen	RW	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	14:32	4:17
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	2	13:22	0:03
J. Greenway	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	13:01	0:00
T. Kozak	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	12:58	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	11:28	0:00
J. Dunne	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	8:14	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	0	2	2	0	1	1	+1	0	27:05	5:34
M. Samuelsson	D	1	0	1	1	1	5	+2	0	22:31	0:00
B. Byram	D	0	1	1	3	1	0	-1	0	20:28	1:58
C. Timmins	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	18:51	0:00
O. Power	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	17:35	0:54
M. Kesselring	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	10:59	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Ellis	28	24	4	.857	61:02	Win
U. Luukkonen	0	0	0	–	0:00

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Raymond	LW	0	3	3	3	0	1	-1	0	16:47	4:57
A. DeBrincat	RW	2	0	2	5	2	1	-3	0	18:04	4:53
D. Larkin	C	1	0	1	3	0	1	-1	0	21:53	4:51
P. Kane	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	2	17:06	4:53
M. Kasper	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	15:47	1:40
J. Compher	LW	0	0	0	3	2	1	+1	0	15:44	0:19
M. Appleton	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	15:27	0:00
E. Finnie	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:26	1:13
A. Copp	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	12:20	0:27
N. Danielson	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	12:12	1:20
M. Rasmussen	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:25	1:17
J. Berggren	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	9:25	0:02
M. Seider	D	0	2	2	4	0	2	-1	0	24:39	5:01
B. Chiarot	D	0	1	1	0	4	4	+1	0	23:59	0:22
A. Sandin-Pellikka	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	22:59	1:34
S. Edvinsson	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	16:05	0:00
J. Bernard-Docker	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:56	0:00
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	13:36	0:06

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Gibson	27	22	5	.815	60:30	OT loss
C. Talbot	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BUF

Line 1A. Tuch12:20T. Thompson12:48R. McLeod12:36

Line 2J. Greenway11:20T. Kozak11:04J. Doan13:39

Line 3P. Krebs12:46B. Malenstyn8:39J. Dunne8:14

Line 4I. Rosen8:55N. Ostlund10:09J. Quinn11:31

Pair 1M. Samuelsson15:41R. Dahlin20:18

Pair 2C. Timmins13:36B. Byram15:42

Pair 3O. Power14:28M. Kesselring10:09

DET

Line 1P. Kane12:13E. Finnie12:22J. Compher12:18

Line 2D. Larkin12:17A. DeBrincat11:40L. Raymond10:41

Line 3M. Appleton12:20M. Kasper12:13N. Danielson10:17

Line 4A. Copp9:54J. Berggren9:23M. Rasmussen8:24

Pair 1B. Chiarot18:08A. Sandin-Pellikka18:18

Pair 2S. Edvinsson14:57M. Seider16:07

Pair 3J. Bernard-Docker10:20A. Johansson12:03

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJacob Bernard-Docker DET Faces BUF, his team until Apr 20250 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BUF 3.1, DET 3.6	BUF 5, DET 4
Total goals	6.8	9
Shots on goal	BUF 26.3, DET 31.1	BUF 27, DET 28
Win chance	DET 58%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	3.3	6	0.96	2	40%	1
DET A. DeBrincat	3.3	5	0.93	2	33%	2
DET D. Larkin	3.0	3	1.07	1	36%	1
BUF R. Dahlin	2.5	0	0.80	2	16%	0
DET P. Kane	2.4	3	0.83	1	25%	1
DET L. Raymond	2.3	3	0.96	3	28%	0
BUF J. Doan	2.2	4	0.53	2	20%	1
BUF A. Tuch	2.1	4	0.78	1	29%	1
DET M. Seider	2.1	4	0.60	2	10%	0
DET M. Kasper	1.9	1	0.49	0	22%	0
BUF J. Quinn	1.8	3	0.64	0	22%	0
DET E. Finnie	1.7	0	0.55	0	21%	0
BUF I. Rosen	1.6	1	0.44	0	17%	0
BUF O. Power	1.4	0	0.44	0	7%	0
BUF M. Kesselring	1.4	0	0.27	0	5%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.3	0	0.24	1	7%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.3	2	0.57	1	20%	1
DET J. Berggren	1.3	0	0.43	0	18%	0
DET S. Edvinsson	1.3	0	0.42	0	11%	0
DET J. Compher	1.2	3	0.46	0	18%	0
BUF J. Greenway	1.2	1	0.30	0	12%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.2	3	0.51	1	12%	0
DET M. Appleton	1.2	1	0.35	0	12%	0
DET A. Sandin-Pellikka	1.2	2	0.31	0	8%	0
BUF N. Ostlund	1.2	1	0.33	0	14%	0
DET A. Copp	1.1	0	0.43	0	15%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.1	0	0.32	0	14%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.0	0	0.34	0	11%	0
BUF C. Timmins	1.0	1	0.31	0	4%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.0	1	0.26	1	5%	1
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.9	0	0.15	0	7%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.9	1	0.17	0	5%	0
DET J. Bernard-Docker	0.8	0	0.19	0	4%	0
BUF J. Dunne	0.8	0	0.12	0	9%	0
BUF T. Kozak	0.8	0	0.25	0	14%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.