Game Recap: BUF 4, EDM 3 (OT), December 9, 2025

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Game Recap

BUF4

Final/OTTue, Dec 9, 2025Every game that night

EDM3

BUF beat EDM 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.96 expected goals to 3.01. T. Thompson led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). L. Draisaitl had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. A. Lyon stopped 21 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
BUF	1	2	0	1	4
EDM	0	0	3	0	3

1st 19:01BUFJ. DoanPP0.10 xG
2nd 11:03BUFT. Thompson0.28 xG
2nd 11:59BUFJ. DoanPP0.16 xG
3rd 0:10EDMC. McDavid0.09 xG
3rd 1:56EDMV. Podkolzin0.09 xG
3rd 19:58EDMC. McDavid0.15 xG
OT 0:33BUFA. Tuch0.23 xG

Team Stats

BUFEDM

28Shots on goal30

2.96Expected goals3.01

53Shot attempts57

165v5 shots on goal21

2/6Power play0/4

14Hits17

12Blocked shots15

8Penalty minutes12

9Giveaways14

6Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 2.96 xGEDM 3.01 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF28 on goal, 4 scored

EDM29 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Thompson	C	1	2	3	4	0	0	+1	0	19:11	5:21
J. Doan	RW	2	0	2	5	1	0	-2	0	15:07	4:16
A. Tuch	RW	1	0	1	2	0	1	+2	2	22:37	3:13
R. McLeod	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	-1	0	22:37	4:44
Z. Benson	LW	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	16:50	5:06
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	16:10	0:32
J. Quinn	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	2	15:07	2:52
T. Kozak	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	11:35	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	2	11:23	0:00
J. Greenway	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	9:40	0:00
I. Rosen	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	9:05	0:51
J. Dunne	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	7:45	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	0	3	3	4	0	0	0	2	22:58	5:38
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	26:09	0:39
C. Timmins	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	22:09	0:06
B. Byram	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	21:14	1:56
O. Power	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	17:54	2:31
J. Bryson	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	6:08	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Ellis	6	6	0	1.000	19:01
A. Lyon	24	21	3	.875	41:32	Win

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	2	0	2	6	0	1	+1	0	25:51	6:33
L. Draisaitl	C	0	1	1	7	0	0	+1	0	24:19	6:35
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	+2	2	21:29	6:07
V. Podkolzin	RW	1	0	1	3	3	0	+2	0	15:08	0:00
Z. Hyman	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	+2	4	23:24	6:15
M. Savoie	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	17:27	0:54
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	2	12:32	0:58
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:07	0:00
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	9:00	0:37
C. Lazar	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	8:17	0:00
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	6:57	0:00
D. Tomasek	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	5:41	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	28:34	6:26
M. Ekholm	D	0	1	1	3	2	1	0	0	22:40	0:38
T. Emberson	D	0	1	1	0	1	3	+1	0	13:22	0:00
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	2	19:28	0:47
A. Regula	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	14:46	0:00
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	14:35	0:10

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	28	24	4	.857	59:22	OT loss
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BUF

Line 1T. Thompson13:50P. Krebs14:49A. Tuch15:08

Line 2R. McLeod11:52J. Quinn12:15I. Rosen8:14

Line 3J. Doan10:17Z. Benson10:32T. Kozak10:17

Line 4B. Malenstyn8:51J. Dunne7:45J. Greenway7:15

Pair 1M. Samuelsson19:13R. Dahlin16:47

Pair 2C. Timmins15:56B. Byram16:56

Pair 3O. Power12:45J. Bryson6:08

EDM

Line 1Z. Hyman15:38C. McDavid17:26R. Nugent-Hopkins12:31

Line 2L. Draisaitl15:55V. Podkolzin13:09M. Savoie13:17

Line 3A. Henrique8:42A. Mangiapane8:23M. Janmark8:07

Line 4T. Frederic6:57D. Tomasek5:41C. Lazar5:46

Pair 1M. Ekholm18:23E. Bouchard17:04

Pair 2D. Nurse17:07A. Regula13:23

Pair 3B. Kulak10:43T. Emberson10:38

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamRyan McLeod BUF Faces EDM, his team until Jun 20241 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BUF 2.9, EDM 3.7	BUF 4, EDM 3
Total goals	6.6	7
Shots on goal	BUF 26.3, EDM 31.1	BUF 28, EDM 30
Win chance	EDM 63%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	3.1	4	0.86	3	36%	1
EDM C. McDavid	2.9	6	1.59	2	38%	2
EDM Z. Hyman	2.7	2	0.85	0	38%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.7	2	1.02	1	19%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.6	7	1.42	1	45%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.2	2	0.72	1	27%	1
EDM D. Nurse	2.2	3	0.43	0	11%	0
BUF J. Doan	2.2	5	0.57	2	19%	2
BUF R. Dahlin	2.1	4	0.66	3	14%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	2.0	3	0.54	1	11%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.9	2	0.85	1	25%	0
BUF J. Quinn	1.8	2	0.56	0	20%	0
EDM M. Savoie	1.6	0	0.41	0	19%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.6	3	0.46	1	17%	1
EDM A. Henrique	1.6	1	0.47	0	21%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.5	2	0.42	0	12%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.3	2	0.54	1	18%	0
BUF I. Rosen	1.3	1	0.39	0	14%	0
BUF O. Power	1.3	2	0.33	0	6%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.3	0	0.24	0	6%	0
EDM A. Mangiapane	1.2	0	0.43	0	19%	0
EDM D. Tomasek	1.2	0	0.30	0	14%	0
EDM T. Frederic	1.1	1	0.25	0	13%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.1	0	0.37	0	10%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.0	1	0.24	0	6%	0
BUF J. Greenway	1.0	1	0.24	0	10%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.0	1	0.27	0	8%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	1.0	0	0.16	0	7%	0
EDM A. Regula	1.0	0	0.10	0	5%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.9	0	0.27	1	4%	0
BUF C. Timmins	0.9	0	0.23	0	4%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.9	0	0.31	0	11%	0
BUF T. Kozak	0.8	0	0.23	0	12%	0
BUF J. Dunne	0.7	0	0.13	0	7%	0
EDM C. Lazar	0.7	0	0.21	0	9%	0
BUF J. Bryson	0.3	1	0.11	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.