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Game Recap
BUF0
FLA4
FLA beat BUF 4-0, and the chances backed it up: 5.11 expected goals to 2.26. FLA outshot BUF 36 to 21. N. Schmidt led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). V. Vanecek stopped 21 of 21.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| FLA | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 7:20FLAA. Greer0.04 xG
- 2nd 9:32FLAC. Verhaeghe0.04 xG
- 2nd 17:09FLAA. Lundell0.61 xG
- 3rd 19:26FLAS. BennettEN0.69 xG
Team Stats
BUFFLA
21Shots on goal36
2.26Expected goals5.11
44Shot attempts66
215v5 shots on goal31
0/2Power play0/1
19Hits29
17Blocked shots5
7Penalty minutes9
10Giveaways9
3Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BUF 2.26 xGFLA 5.11 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:03 | 3:15 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:57 | 2:50 |
| J. Norris | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:27 | 2:48 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:53 | 1:13 |
| T. Thompson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:35 | 2:46 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:20 | 1:14 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:39 | 0:00 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 13:58 | 0:00 |
| I. Rosen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:51 | 0:47 |
| S. Lafferty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 9:00 | 0:00 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:43 | 0:00 |
| J. Dunne | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 5 | 7:16 | 0:00 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 23:02 | 3:19 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:42 | 1:07 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:54 | 0:41 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 18:21 | 0:00 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:50 | 0:00 |
| J. Bryson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:44 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Luukkonen | 35 | 32 | 3 | .914 | 57:45 | Loss |
| J. Reimer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:13 | 1:20 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:03 | 0:40 |
| A. Barkov | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:14 | 1:17 |
| S. Bennett | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:25 | 1:22 |
| A. Lundell | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 2 | 14:44 | 0:43 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 11:48 | 0:00 |
| A. Greer | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | +1 | 5 | 9:09 | 0:00 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:04 | 0:42 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:11 | 1:18 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:07 | 0:38 |
| N. Sturm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:23 | 0:00 |
| T. Nosek | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:42 | 0:00 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:14 | 0:00 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 22:51 | 1:16 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:06 | 0:00 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:50 | 0:00 |
| S. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:50 | 0:44 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:06 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Vanecek | 21 | 21 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| S. Bobrovsky | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BUF 2.7, FLA 3.5 | BUF 0, FLA 4 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | BUF 25.4, FLA 32.6 | BUF 21, FLA 36 |
| Win chance | FLA 64% | FLA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA S. Bennett | 3.1 | 2 | 0.73 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| BUF T. Thompson | 2.9 | 1 | 0.78 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.8 | 3 | 1.09 | 1 | 42% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.8 | 5 | 0.81 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.5 | 2 | 0.69 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.4 | 2 | 0.67 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| FLA A. Barkov | 2.3 | 1 | 1.15 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.3 | 3 | 0.69 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 2.3 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.2 | 0 | 0.52 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 2.1 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 2.0 | 0 | 0.59 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA S. Jones | 2.0 | 4 | 0.56 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 1.9 | 2 | 0.64 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| BUF J. Norris | 1.6 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.5 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.3 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.3 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.2 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.2 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.2 | 3 | 0.40 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.1 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.1 | 3 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA N. Sturm | 1.0 | 3 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 0.9 | 3 | 0.27 | 2 | 6% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 0.9 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 0.9 | 2 | 0.22 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| BUF I. Rosen | 0.9 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 0.9 | 2 | 0.22 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA T. Nosek | 0.8 | 3 | 0.21 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 0.8 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BUF S. Lafferty | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF J. Dunne | 0.8 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bryson | 0.4 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 15 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.