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Game Recap
BUF2
FLA3
FLA beat BUF 3-2 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 3.07 expected goals to 2.09. R. Dahlin led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). R. Dahlin had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. V. Vanecek stopped 26 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| FLA | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 19:41BUFR. DahlinPP0.18 xG
- 2nd 5:00FLAC. Verhaeghe0.31 xG
- 2nd 14:47FLAJ. Puljujarvi0.35 xG
- 3rd 12:18BUFJ. PeterkaPP0.18 xG
Team Stats
BUFFLA
28Shots on goal34
2.09Expected goals3.07
52Shot attempts62
195v5 shots on goal25
2/3Power play0/3
20Hits34
13Blocked shots11
17Penalty minutes17
15Giveaways16
11Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BUF 2.09 xGFLA 3.07 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Peterka | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:11 | 2:46 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 20:34 | 2:46 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:45 | 2:46 |
| T. Thompson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:25 | 0:47 |
| J.Kulich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:20 | 0:00 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:45 | 0:01 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:35 | 0:01 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:14 | 0:01 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:25 | 1:59 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 10:12 | 0:00 |
| N. Ostlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 8:59 | 0:00 |
| S. Lafferty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 8:55 | 0:00 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 28:20 | 2:46 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:08 | 0:01 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:11 | 0:00 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 4 | 20:43 | 0:01 |
| J. Bernard-Docker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:51 | 0:00 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:27 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Luukkonen | 34 | 32 | 2 | .941 | 65:00 | OT loss |
| J. Reimer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 18:58 | 2:26 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 19:57 | 3:57 |
| J. Puljujarvi | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:48 | 2:20 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:09 | 3:38 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 19:57 | 3:36 |
| B. Marchand | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:54 | 4:07 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:55 | 1:57 |
| N. Sturm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:28 | 0:01 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:31 | 0:01 |
| J. Gadjovich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 8:39 | 0:00 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8:25 | 0:00 |
| R. Asplund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:22 | 0:00 |
| S. Jones | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 26:51 | 2:42 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 17:40 | 0:00 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:07 | 0:01 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:03 | 1:52 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:38 | 3:22 |
| J. Megna | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:52 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Vanecek | 28 | 26 | 2 | .929 | 65:00 | Win |
| S. Bobrovsky | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BUF 2.8, FLA 3.6 | BUF 2, FLA 3 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | BUF 24.6, FLA 32.6 | BUF 28, FLA 34 |
| Win chance | FLA 63% | FLA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.8 | 3 | 0.75 | 2 | 30% | 1 |
| BUF T. Thompson | 2.8 | 2 | 0.76 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 2.4 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.4 | 6 | 0.66 | 2 | 14% | 1 |
| FLA B. Marchand | 2.3 | 2 | 0.78 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| FLA S. Jones | 2.2 | 3 | 0.57 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 2.2 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.1 | 2 | 0.64 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 2.0 | 1 | 0.61 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.0 | 1 | 0.58 | 2 | 23% | 1 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.0 | 4 | 0.47 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| BUF J.Kulich | 1.9 | 5 | 0.36 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 1.9 | 2 | 0.51 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| FLA J. Puljujarvi | 1.7 | 4 | 0.31 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.6 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.4 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.4 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.4 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.3 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.2 | 0 | 0.25 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.2 | 4 | 0.37 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 1.2 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| FLA J. Gadjovich | 1.1 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.1 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.1 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.1 | 3 | 0.40 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA R. Asplund | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| FLA N. Sturm | 1.0 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 1.0 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF S. Lafferty | 0.9 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.8 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA J. Megna | 0.8 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bernard-Docker | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 16 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.