Game Recap: BUF 5, FLA 3, February 2, 2026

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

BUF5

FinalMon, Feb 2, 2026Every game that night

FLA3

BUF beat FLA 5-3 despite fewer good chances: 3.05 expected goals to 4.41. FLA outshot BUF 42 to 20. P. Krebs led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). C. Verhaeghe had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. A. Lyon stopped 39 of 42.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BUF	2	1	2	5
FLA	2	1	0	3

1st 0:37FLAS. Vilmanis0.12 xG
1st 5:54FLAE. Rodrigues0.16 xG
1st 15:03BUFT. Thompson0.08 xG
1st 18:26BUFP. Krebs0.08 xG
2nd 5:44BUFZ. Benson0.20 xG
2nd 18:59FLAU. BalinskisPP0.12 xG
3rd 5:31BUFJ. ZuckerPP0.10 xG
3rd 17:51BUFJ. Doan0.25 xG

Team Stats

BUFFLA

20Shots on goal42

3.05Expected goals4.41

47Shot attempts81

145v5 shots on goal27

1/3Power play1/4

23Hits22

20Blocked shots13

8Penalty minutes6

17Giveaways17

2Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 3.05 xGFLA 4.41 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF19 on goal, 5 scored

FLA42 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Krebs	C	1	2	3	1	7	0	+2	0	19:27	0:00
R. McLeod	C	0	2	2	1	0	1	+1	2	16:54	1:08
J. Doan	RW	1	1	2	1	3	0	0	0	16:22	3:05
A. Tuch	RW	0	1	1	1	1	2	+3	0	22:27	0:52
T. Thompson	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	+2	0	20:14	3:04
J. Quinn	RW	0	1	1	4	1	0	-1	2	16:13	3:06
J. Zucker	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	-1	0	16:00	3:18
Z. Benson	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	14:10	1:07
N. Ostlund	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	12:15	1:06
T. Kozak	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	11:14	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	8:04	0:00
I. Rosen	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	3:08	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	0	2	2	1	0	2	+1	2	21:54	3:20
O. Power	D	0	1	1	0	1	4	+1	0	24:17	0:00
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	1	1	7	0	0	27:26	0:00
B. Byram	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	2	22:54	0:54
M. Kesselring	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	11:48	0:00
Z. Metsa	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:30	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Lyon	42	39	3	.929	59:55	Win
C. Ellis	0	0	0	–	0:00

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Reinhart	C	0	2	2	6	1	2	-1	0	24:41	6:06
E. Rodrigues	C	1	0	1	5	1	0	-1	0	24:09	6:05
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	1	1	7	0	0	-2	0	22:53	6:06
A. Greer	LW	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	15:08	0:00
S. Vilmanis	LW	1	0	1	2	3	0	0	0	14:13	0:10
M. Tkachuk	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-3	0	24:07	6:31
E. Luostarinen	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	17:04	0:10
C. Schwindt	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	2	14:24	0:00
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	10:50	0:35
L. Kunin	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	6:58	0:00
J. Boqvist	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	6:14	0:26
S. Bennett	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	5:11	0:00
U. Balinskis	D	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	24:57	5:17
N. Mikkola	D	0	1	1	0	0	3	+1	0	20:19	0:00
T. Bjornfot	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	0	0	11:01	0:00
G. Forsling	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	23:16	1:24
A. Ekblad	D	0	0	0	3	4	1	-2	2	20:15	0:35
J. Petry	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	12:00	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Bobrovsky	20	15	5	.750	58:08	Loss
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BUF

Line 1A. Tuch16:25T. Thompson15:46P. Krebs17:50

Line 2J. Zucker12:42R. McLeod13:53J. Quinn13:07

Line 3J. Doan12:36N. Ostlund11:09Z. Benson11:16

Line 4B. Malenstyn5:28T. Kozak8:08I. Rosen3:08

Pair 1B. Byram18:11O. Power20:03

Pair 2M. Samuelsson21:13R. Dahlin16:03

FLA

Line 1S. Reinhart14:55E. Rodrigues14:28E. Luostarinen14:20

Line 2C. Verhaeghe14:55M. Tkachuk15:44S. Bennett5:11

Line 3A. Greer13:46S. Vilmanis13:58C. Schwindt12:51

Line 4L. Kunin6:25J. Boqvist4:56M. Samoskevich10:15

Pair 1A. Ekblad18:15G. Forsling18:51

Pair 2N. Mikkola17:56U. Balinskis16:32

Pair 3J. Petry11:31T. Bjornfot11:01

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BUF 3.0, FLA 3.5	BUF 5, FLA 3
Total goals	6.5	8
Shots on goal	BUF 24.6, FLA 30.3	BUF 20, FLA 42
Win chance	FLA 57%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
FLA S. Bennett	3.3	0	0.94	0	35%	0
BUF T. Thompson	3.0	4	0.95	1	38%	1
FLA M. Tkachuk	2.8	2	1.11	0	33%	0
FLA S. Reinhart	2.8	6	1.07	2	42%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.7	1	0.86	2	17%	0
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.5	7	0.80	1	30%	0
FLA E. Rodrigues	2.3	5	0.54	1	20%	1
BUF A. Tuch	2.1	1	0.74	1	28%	0
BUF J. Zucker	2.0	2	0.66	1	24%	1
BUF J. Doan	1.8	1	0.59	2	21%	1
FLA M. Samoskevich	1.8	2	0.34	0	13%	0
BUF O. Power	1.7	0	0.40	1	7%	0
BUF J. Quinn	1.7	4	0.57	1	19%	0
FLA G. Forsling	1.7	1	0.47	0	11%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.6	2	0.48	1	15%	1
FLA U. Balinskis	1.6	3	0.39	1	10%	1
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.5	2	0.48	0	15%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	1.5	3	0.46	0	9%	0
FLA A. Greer	1.3	1	0.31	1	14%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.2	0	0.47	0	11%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.2	1	0.40	0	7%	0
BUF M. Kesselring	1.2	1	0.20	0	4%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.1	1	0.57	2	18%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.1	0	0.21	1	5%	0
BUF N. Ostlund	1.0	0	0.43	0	18%	0
BUF I. Rosen	1.0	0	0.30	0	11%	0
FLA S. Vilmanis	0.9	2	0.28	1	11%	1
BUF P. Krebs	0.8	1	0.29	3	9%	1
FLA J. Petry	0.8	1	0.21	0	3%	0
FLA L. Kunin	0.8	2	0.14	0	8%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.7	0	0.15	0	7%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	0.7	1	0.20	0	10%	0
FLA C. Schwindt	0.6	3	0.18	0	7%	0
FLA T. Bjornfot	0.6	1	0.09	1	2%	0
BUF T. Kozak	0.5	1	0.15	0	8%	0
BUF Z. Metsa	0.5	0	0.10	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.