Game Recap: BUF 3, FLA 2, February 27, 2026

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Game Recap

BUF3

FinalFri, Feb 27, 2026Every game that night

FLA2

BUF beat FLA 3-2, with the chances close: 4.25 expected goals to 3.59. BUF outshot FLA 39 to 29. A. Tuch led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Tuch had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. A. Lyon stopped 28 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BUF	1	0	2	3
FLA	0	1	1	2

1st 17:48BUFA. TuchPP0.11 xG
2nd 13:51FLAM. TkachukPP0.27 xG
3rd 11:38BUFB. Malenstyn0.04 xG
3rd 18:43BUFP. KrebsEN0.59 xG
3rd 19:25FLAS. Bennett0.09 xG

Team Stats

BUFFLA

39Shots on goal29

4.25Expected goals3.59

67Shot attempts66

345v5 shots on goal15

1/3Power play1/4

14Hits20

18Blocked shots16

6Penalty minutes4

14Giveaways15

7Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 4.25 xGFLA 3.59 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF37 on goal, 3 scored

FLA30 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Tuch	RW	1	1	2	6	1	3	+1	0	19:23	2:00
T. Thompson	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	19:39	3:45
J. Norris	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	17:46	3:32
R. McLeod	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	15:58	2:11
P. Krebs	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	14:37	0:00
N. Ostlund	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	14:23	1:05
B. Malenstyn	LW	1	0	1	3	1	1	+1	2	10:57	0:07
J. Doan	RW	0	0	0	3	3	1	-1	0	16:23	3:37
J. Zucker	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	15:52	3:56
J. Quinn	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	14:35	2:05
T. Kozak	C	0	0	0	1	2	3	0	0	10:45	0:08
J. Dunne	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	8:54	0:06
B. Byram	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	23:42	2:02
R. Dahlin	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	25:04	3:50
O. Power	D	0	0	0	3	0	4	0	0	23:46	0:51
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	3	3	2	+1	0	23:42	0:00
M. Kesselring	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	2	12:19	0:00
Z. Metsa	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	6:13	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Lyon	29	28	2	.966	60:00	Win
C. Ellis	0	0	0	–	0:00

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Bennett	C	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	0	21:19	4:45
M. Tkachuk	LW	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	0	21:34	5:09
B. Marchand	LW	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	0	16:10	4:43
S. Reinhart	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	22:24	4:43
E. Rodrigues	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	17:36	1:23
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	0	17:21	1:23
A. Lundell	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	16:43	0:57
E. Luostarinen	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	15:09	0:00
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	12:49	0:46
A. Greer	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	8:21	0:00
S. Vilmanis	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	7:52	0:00
L. Kunin	C	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	6:43	0:00
A. Ekblad	D	0	0	0	3	4	1	0	0	27:18	3:03
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	25:29	0:01
G. Forsling	D	0	0	0	3	0	3	0	2	23:51	2:11
J. Petry	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	16:24	0:00
D. Sebrango	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	10:23	0:00
U. Balinskis	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	8:38	1:26

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Tarasov	38	36	2	.947	58:05	Loss
S. Bobrovsky	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BUF

Line 1J. Norris13:58N. Ostlund12:59J. Doan12:33

Line 2T. Thompson14:34P. Krebs12:37A. Tuch12:42

Line 3J. Zucker11:56J. Quinn12:30R. McLeod9:39

Line 4B. Malenstyn8:45J. Dunne8:23T. Kozak7:51

Pair 1B. Byram17:55O. Power19:20

Pair 2M. Samuelsson19:07R. Dahlin19:03

FLA

Line 1C. Verhaeghe15:08S. Reinhart14:05E. Rodrigues14:14

Line 2S. Bennett13:58M. Tkachuk13:54M. Samoskevich12:03

Line 3E. Luostarinen11:34A. Lundell11:18B. Marchand9:32

Line 4S. Vilmanis7:52A. Greer8:21L. Kunin6:43

Pair 1A. Ekblad18:49G. Forsling19:27

Pair 2J. Petry14:14N. Mikkola22:03

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BUF 3.2, FLA 3.4	BUF 3, FLA 2
Total goals	6.6	5
Shots on goal	BUF 25.1, FLA 31.0	BUF 39, FLA 29
Win chance	FLA 53%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	3.3	1	1.04	1	41%	0
FLA S. Bennett	2.8	2	0.77	2	30%	1
FLA M. Tkachuk	2.8	5	1.01	1	32%	1
FLA S. Reinhart	2.8	2	1.00	0	39%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.7	2	0.91	0	17%	0
FLA E. Rodrigues	2.6	1	0.56	0	20%	0
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.4	0	0.70	0	27%	0
FLA A. Lundell	2.4	0	0.69	0	22%	0
FLA B. Marchand	2.3	4	0.78	1	28%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.2	6	0.83	2	31%	1
BUF J. Quinn	2.0	2	0.67	0	21%	0
BUF J. Zucker	1.9	1	0.66	0	25%	0
FLA M. Samoskevich	1.9	1	0.31	0	13%	0
BUF J. Doan	1.8	3	0.62	0	23%	0
FLA U. Balinskis	1.7	2	0.41	0	11%	0
BUF O. Power	1.7	3	0.42	0	7%	0
FLA G. Forsling	1.6	3	0.41	0	10%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.5	1	0.46	0	15%	0
FLA A. Greer	1.4	2	0.33	0	14%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	1.4	3	0.42	0	9%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.3	3	0.44	0	8%	0
BUF J. Norris	1.3	3	0.56	1	24%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.2	2	0.51	1	12%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.2	1	0.64	1	19%	0
BUF M. Kesselring	1.2	1	0.20	0	4%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.1	0	0.22	0	5%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.0	2	0.38	1	11%	1
BUF N. Ostlund	0.9	3	0.39	1	17%	0
FLA J. Petry	0.9	0	0.22	0	4%	0
FLA L. Kunin	0.9	1	0.14	0	8%	0
FLA S. Vilmanis	0.8	1	0.28	0	12%	0
BUF J. Dunne	0.8	1	0.15	0	7%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.7	3	0.15	1	7%	1
BUF T. Kozak	0.6	1	0.16	0	9%	0
FLA D. Sebrango	0.6	1	0.11	0	2%	0
BUF Z. Metsa	0.5	1	0.09	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.