Game Recap: BUF 3, LAK 2, October 31, 2026

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Game Recap

BUF3

FinalSat, Oct 31, 2026Every game that night

LAK2

BUF beat LAK 3-2 despite fewer good chances: 1.99 expected goals to 3.72. T. Thompson led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). C. Perry had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. U. Luukkonen stopped 27 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BUF	1	1	1	3
LAK	0	1	1	2

1st 6:35BUFJ. QuinnPP0.10 xG
2nd 15:38BUFT. Thompson0.07 xG
2nd 17:24LAKC. PerryPP0.46 xG
3rd 1:29LAKA. Lee0.18 xG
3rd 13:40BUFT. ThompsonPP0.15 xG

Team Stats

BUFLAK

31Shots on goal29

1.99Expected goals3.72

61Shot attempts78

215v5 shots on goal22

2/3Power play1/5

15Hits28

30Blocked shots19

14Penalty minutes8

8Giveaways14

4Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 1.99 xGLAK 3.72 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF31 on goal, 3 scored

LAK26 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
Z. Benson	LW	0	2	2	4	1	2	0	0	23:20	3:10
T. Thompson	C	2	0	2	8	0	1	+1	2	20:09	3:14
J. Quinn	RW	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	0	17:31	3:11
N. Ostlund	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	18:14	3:10
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	0	5	1	+1	2	15:41	0:00
R. McLeod	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	14:25	0:12
J. Doan	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	13:22	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	12:54	0:00
T. Kozak	C	0	0	0	0	1	4	-1	0	11:27	0:00
J. Norris	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	9:12	0:08
J. Zucker	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	8:47	0:12
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	4	4	0	0	0	7:37	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	0	2	2	2	0	1	+1	4	23:21	2:46
M. Samuelsson	D	0	1	1	1	0	8	+1	0	25:59	0:00
O. Power	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	27:12	0:39
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	-1	0	19:51	0:08
L. Crevier	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	2	10:26	0:00
Z. Metsa	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	10:22	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
U. Luukkonen	29	27	2	.931	60:00	Win
C. Ellis	0	0	0	–	0:00

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Perry	RW	1	0	1	9	1	1	-1	2	19:42	3:32
T. Moore	LW	0	1	1	3	0	0	-1	0	18:30	2:20
S. Laughton	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	11:05	0:13
J. Armia	RW	0	1	1	2	2	0	+1	0	10:40	0:03
A. Lee	LW	1	0	1	2	2	0	+1	0	9:32	0:11
A. Panarin	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	24:50	5:37
A. Laferriere	RW	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	0	23:13	4:35
Q. Byfield	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	22:15	4:41
M. Chromiak	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	17:31	4:27
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	2	5	0	0	0	11:44	3:32
T. Ward	RW	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	6:11	0:00
S. Helenius	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	5:41	0:00
B. Clarke	D	0	1	1	1	2	2	-1	0	20:07	3:19
D. Doughty	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	23:11	3:38
E. Gustafsson	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	21:35	4:48
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	18:11	0:00
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	0	1	7	+1	2	18:05	0:03
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	2	14:38	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Forsberg	31	28	3	.903	57:57	Loss
D. Kuemper	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BUF

Line 1T. Thompson14:34Z. Benson14:13P. Krebs14:10

Line 2J. Doan13:07N. Ostlund13:43J. Quinn12:47

Line 3J. Norris9:04R. McLeod9:17J. Zucker8:35

Line 4B. Malenstyn8:28T. Kozak7:45S. Carrick7:37

Pair 1M. Samuelsson18:59R. Dahlin19:26

Pair 2O. Power18:34O. Zellweger14:46

LAK

Line 1A. Panarin16:00A. Laferriere15:44M. Chromiak13:04

Line 2C. Perry14:16Q. Byfield15:12T. Moore13:33

Line 3J. Armia9:04S. Laughton8:59A. Lee9:11

Line 4S. Helenius5:41T. Ward6:11E. Haula6:26

Pair 1D. Doughty16:44J. Edmundson15:52

Pair 2B. Dumoulin13:44M. Anderson14:55

Pair 3E. Gustafsson14:29B. Clarke13:45

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

7 of 17 overs hit (41%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
BUF T. Thompson	3.5	+120	-140	8	Over
LAK A. Laferriere	2.5	+100	+100	3	Over
LAK A. Panarin	2.5	-125	+105	3	Over
BUF J. Quinn	2.5	+100	-120	2	Under
LAK Q. Byfield	2.5	+125	-145	0	Under
BUF R. Dahlin	2.5	-110	-110	2	Under
LAK T. Moore	2.5	+140	-160	3	Over
BUF Z. Benson	2.5	+145	-178	4	Over
LAK B. Clarke	1.5	-120	-110	1	Under
LAK D. Doughty	1.5	+145	-170	1	Under
BUF J. Doan	1.5	-115	-110	3	Over
BUF J. Zucker	1.5	-105	-110	1	Under
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.5	+125	-185	1	Under
BUF N. Ostlund	1.5	-110	+100	3	Over
BUF O. Power	1.5	+120	-120	0	Under
BUF O. Zellweger	1.5	-115	+100	1	Under
LAK S. Laughton	1.5	+105	-125	0	Under

3 of 34 overs hit (9%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
LAK A. Laferriere	0.5	+275	-350	0	Under
LAK A. Panarin	0.5	+190	-285	0	Under
LAK B. Clarke	0.5	+650	-1600	0	Under
LAK B. Dumoulin	0.5	+1300	-4000	0	Under
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.5	+1100	-2000	0	Under
LAK C. Perry	0.5	+410	–	1	Over
LAK D. Doughty	0.5	+950	-1400	0	Under
LAK E. Gustafsson	0.5	+950	-2500	0	Under
LAK E. Haula	0.5	+400	-750	0	Under
LAK J. Armia	0.5	+550	-900	0	Under
BUF J. Doan	0.5	+320	-475	0	Under
LAK J. Edmundson	0.5	+1500	-3500	0	Under
BUF J. Norris	0.5	+320	-420	0	Under
BUF J. Quinn	0.5	+220	-275	1	Over
BUF J. Zucker	0.5	+340	-600	0	Under
BUF L. Crevier	0.5	+1700	-3500	0	Under
LAK M. Anderson	0.5	+1700	-4000	0	Under
LAK M. Chromiak	0.5	+500	–	0	Under
BUF M. Samuelsson	0.5	+1100	-1600	0	Under
BUF N. Ostlund	0.5	+333	-400	0	Under
BUF O. Power	0.5	+850	-2000	0	Under
BUF O. Zellweger	0.5	+850	-1600	0	Under
BUF P. Krebs	0.5	+410	-750	0	Under
LAK Q. Byfield	0.5	+275	-285	0	Under
BUF R. Dahlin	0.5	+360	-550	0	Under
BUF R. McLeod	0.5	+525	-800	0	Under
BUF S. Carrick	0.5	+800	-1200	0	Under
LAK S. Helenius	0.5	+1100	-1600	0	Under
LAK S. Laughton	0.5	+575	-900	0	Under
BUF T. Kozak	0.5	+1000	-1400	0	Under
LAK T. Moore	0.5	+340	-475	0	Under
BUF T. Thompson	0.5	+160	-180	2	Over
LAK T. Ward	0.5	+600	–	0	Under
BUF Z. Benson	0.5	+270	-320	0	Under

7 of 32 overs hit (22%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
LAK A. Laferriere	0.5	+162	-190	0	Under
LAK A. Panarin	0.5	+105	-111	0	Under
LAK B. Clarke	0.5	+200	-250	1	Over
LAK B. Dumoulin	0.5	+475	–	0	Under
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.5	+900	–	0	Under
LAK C. Perry	0.5	+320	-475	0	Under
LAK D. Doughty	0.5	+265	-325	0	Under
LAK E. Gustafsson	0.5	+165	-210	0	Under
LAK E. Haula	0.5	+245	-340	0	Under
LAK J. Armia	0.5	+370	-550	1	Over
BUF J. Doan	0.5	+240	-310	0	Under
LAK J. Edmundson	0.5	+425	-650	0	Under
BUF J. Norris	0.5	+300	-425	0	Under
BUF J. Quinn	0.5	+145	-175	1	Over
BUF J. Zucker	0.5	+310	-325	0	Under
BUF L. Crevier	0.5	+600	–	0	Under
LAK M. Anderson	0.5	+400	–	0	Under
BUF M. Samuelsson	0.5	+270	-350	1	Over
BUF N. Ostlund	0.5	+190	-225	0	Under
BUF O. Power	0.5	+180	-220	0	Under
BUF O. Zellweger	0.5	+340	-500	0	Under
BUF P. Krebs	0.5	+245	-350	0	Under
LAK Q. Byfield	0.5	+175	-185	0	Under
BUF R. Dahlin	0.5	+100	-120	2	Over
BUF R. McLeod	0.5	+255	-275	0	Under
BUF S. Carrick	0.5	+550	–	0	Under
LAK S. Helenius	0.5	+1100	–	0	Under
BUF T. Kozak	0.5	+900	–	0	Under
LAK T. Moore	0.5	+260	-275	1	Over
BUF T. Thompson	0.5	+130	-170	0	Under
LAK T. Ward	0.5	+450	–	0	Under
BUF Z. Benson	0.5	+150	-190	2	Over

9 of 32 overs hit (28%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
LAK A. Laferriere	0.5	-110	+100	0	Under
LAK A. Panarin	0.5	-220	+170	0	Under
LAK B. Clarke	0.5	+150	-175	1	Over
LAK B. Dumoulin	0.5	+350	–	0	Under
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.5	+500	–	0	Under
LAK C. Perry	0.5	+165	-225	1	Over
LAK D. Doughty	0.5	+200	-230	0	Under
LAK E. Gustafsson	0.5	+140	-175	0	Under
LAK E. Haula	0.5	+135	-185	0	Under
LAK J. Armia	0.5	+210	-290	1	Over
BUF J. Doan	0.5	+130	-150	0	Under
LAK J. Edmundson	0.5	+340	-500	0	Under
BUF J. Norris	0.5	+150	-190	0	Under
BUF J. Quinn	0.5	-140	+115	2	Over
BUF J. Zucker	0.5	+150	-185	0	Under
BUF L. Crevier	0.5	+450	–	0	Under
LAK M. Anderson	0.5	+320	–	0	Under
BUF M. Samuelsson	0.5	+205	-230	1	Over
BUF N. Ostlund	0.5	+105	-120	0	Under
BUF O. Power	0.5	+150	-180	0	Under
BUF O. Zellweger	0.5	+225	-310	0	Under
BUF P. Krebs	0.5	+165	-185	0	Under
LAK Q. Byfield	0.5	-115	+100	0	Under
BUF R. Dahlin	0.5	-145	+125	2	Over
BUF R. McLeod	0.5	+150	-165	0	Under
BUF S. Carrick	0.5	+310	–	0	Under
LAK S. Helenius	0.5	+550	–	0	Under
BUF T. Kozak	0.5	+475	–	0	Under
LAK T. Moore	0.5	+125	-135	1	Over
BUF T. Thompson	0.5	-175	+145	2	Over
LAK T. Ward	0.5	+235	–	0	Under
BUF Z. Benson	0.5	-125	+105	2	Over

6 of 17 overs hit (35%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
LAK A. Laferriere	0.5	+270	-350	0	Under
LAK A. Panarin	0.5	+180	-200	0	Under
LAK B. Clarke	0.5	+475	-1400	1	Over
LAK E. Gustafsson	0.5	+300	-600	0	Under
LAK E. Haula	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
BUF J. Doan	0.5	+450	-1200	0	Under
BUF J. Norris	0.5	+400	-1100	0	Under
BUF J. Quinn	0.5	+250	-350	2	Over
BUF J. Zucker	0.5	+400	-625	0	Under
BUF N. Ostlund	0.5	+350	-525	0	Under
BUF O. Power	0.5	+500	-650	0	Under
LAK Q. Byfield	0.5	+270	-375	0	Under
BUF R. Dahlin	0.5	+230	-260	2	Over
BUF R. McLeod	0.5	+400	-1100	0	Under
LAK T. Moore	0.5	+500	-1600	1	Over
BUF T. Thompson	0.5	+230	-280	1	Over
BUF Z. Benson	0.5	+310	-450	1	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
LAK A. Forsberg	23.5	-106	-125	28	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
LAK J. Edmundson	1.5	-125	-115	7	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownJason Zucker BUF Plays near home (born in Newport Beach)1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BUF 3.3, LAK 3.1	BUF 3, LAK 2
Total goals	6.4	5
Shots on goal	BUF 27.5, LAK 28.1	BUF 31, LAK 29
Win chance	BUF 52%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	3.1	8	0.93	2	35%	2
LAK A. Panarin	3.0	3	1.27	0	40%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	2.9	3	0.76	0	28%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.6	2	0.83	2	18%	0
BUF J. Quinn	2.6	2	0.75	2	25%	1
LAK T. Moore	2.4	3	0.58	1	24%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	2.3	0	0.68	0	26%	0
BUF Z. Benson	2.2	4	0.77	2	22%	0
BUF J. Doan	1.9	3	0.50	0	19%	0
BUF O. Zellweger	1.8	1	0.33	0	9%	0
BUF N. Ostlund	1.7	3	0.68	0	23%	0
LAK S. Laughton	1.6	0	0.37	1	17%	0
LAK C. Perry	1.6	9	0.48	1	23%	1
LAK B. Clarke	1.6	1	0.43	1	7%	0
BUF J. Zucker	1.5	1	0.44	0	18%	0
BUF O. Power	1.5	0	0.54	0	10%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.4	1	0.44	1	10%	0
LAK J. Armia	1.4	2	0.35	1	16%	0
BUF J. Norris	1.3	0	0.47	0	20%	0
LAK E. Gustafsson	1.2	1	0.43	0	7%	0
LAK D. Doughty	1.2	1	0.45	0	9%	0
LAK E. Haula	1.2	2	0.34	0	14%	0
LAK A. Lee	1.2	2	0.29	1	11%	1
LAK J. Edmundson	1.1	0	0.23	0	4%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.1	0	0.47	0	13%	0
LAK T. Ward	1.0	0	0.18	0	8%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.0	0	0.45	0	14%	0
BUF L. Crevier	0.9	0	0.16	0	4%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.8	0	0.20	0	8%	0
BUF S. Carrick	0.7	4	0.16	0	7%	0
LAK S. Helenius	0.7	0	0.15	0	8%	0
LAK B. Dumoulin	0.7	0	0.22	0	4%	0
LAK M. Anderson	0.7	1	0.23	0	5%	0
BUF T. Kozak	0.7	0	0.18	0	8%	0
BUF Z. Metsa	0.6	2	0.14	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.