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Game Recap
BUF1
MIN4
MIN beat BUF 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.11 expected goals to 2.00. M. Zuccarello led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). F. Gustavsson stopped 20 of 21.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| MIN | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
- 2nd 0:56MINM. Rossi0.18 xG
- 2nd 5:07MINJ. Brazeau0.66 xG
- 2nd 8:11MINM. Zuccarello0.16 xG
- 3rd 6:48BUFJ. Peterka0.14 xG
- 3rd 19:27MINF. GaudreauEN0.66 xG
Team Stats
BUFMIN
21Shots on goal21
2.00Expected goals3.11
56Shot attempts44
125v5 shots on goal17
0/2Power play0/2
20Hits20
12Blocked shots18
6Penalty minutes6
18Giveaways7
3Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BUF 2.00 xGMIN 3.11 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Peterka | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 23:41 | 2:17 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 22:42 | 1:43 |
| T. Thompson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 21:08 | 1:57 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 19:40 | 2:17 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:44 | 2:21 |
| J. Greenway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:26 | 0:00 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:17 | 2:03 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 12:56 | 0:00 |
| T. Kozak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:07 | 0:00 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:52 | 1:43 |
| S. Lafferty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:33 | 0:00 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 24:37 | 2:24 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:46 | 1:44 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 20:03 | 1:31 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:01 | 0:00 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:51 | 0:00 |
| J. Bryson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 12:09 | 0:00 |
| J. Bernard-Docker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:29 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Luukkonen | 20 | 17 | 3 | .850 | 57:58 | Loss |
| J. Reimer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:15 | 2:37 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 19:17 | 2:40 |
| M. Rossi | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:09 | 2:38 |
| V. Hinostroza | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:48 | 1:22 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:32 | 1:24 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:21 | 0:00 |
| B. Gaunce | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:06 | 0:00 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 7:36 | 0:00 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:43 | 2:36 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:11 | 1:18 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:04 | 1:25 |
| D. Shore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7:56 | 0:00 |
| J. Brodin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 20:21 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:34 | 0:00 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 23:55 | 2:44 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 22:43 | 0:00 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:07 | 1:16 |
| J. Merrill | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:30 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gustavsson | 21 | 20 | 1 | .952 | 59:52 | Win |
| M. Fleury | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BUF 3.1, MIN 3.2 | BUF 1, MIN 4 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | BUF 28.8, MIN 27.8 | BUF 21, MIN 21 |
| Win chance | MIN 52% | MIN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.1 | 3 | 0.92 | 0 | 38% | 0 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.0 | 4 | 0.95 | 2 | 32% | 0 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.6 | 4 | 0.72 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.5 | 1 | 0.74 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.4 | 1 | 0.75 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.3 | 0 | 0.63 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.2 | 3 | 0.91 | 2 | 25% | 1 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.1 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| MIN V. Hinostroza | 1.6 | 1 | 0.42 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.6 | 3 | 0.40 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.5 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.5 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.5 | 2 | 0.50 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 1.5 | 0 | 0.42 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.5 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 1.5 | 3 | 0.62 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.4 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.4 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.4 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MIN G. Nyquist | 1.3 | 0 | 0.60 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.2 | 3 | 0.45 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BUF J. Greenway | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.1 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| MIN B. Gaunce | 1.1 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brazeau | 1.0 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.8 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF S. Lafferty | 0.8 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN D. Shore | 0.7 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF T. Kozak | 0.7 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN J. Merrill | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bernard-Docker | 0.6 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bryson | 0.5 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.