Game Recap: BUF 3, MIN 2 (SO), November 29, 2025

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Game Recap

BUF3

Final/SOSat, Nov 29, 2025Every game that night

MIN2

BUF beat MIN 3-2 in a shootout, with the chances close: 2.90 expected goals to 2.62. BUF outshot MIN 33 to 24. P. Krebs had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. C. Ellis stopped 22 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
BUF	1	0	1	1	3
MIN	2	0	0	0	2

1st 9:37MINK. Kaprizov0.07 xG
1st 12:42BUFB. Malenstyn0.19 xG
1st 14:05MINM. Boldy0.12 xG
3rd 6:01BUFJ. Doan0.04 xG

Team Stats

BUFMIN

33Shots on goal24

2.90Expected goals2.62

59Shot attempts46

295v5 shots on goal17

0/3Power play0/3

20Hits18

8Blocked shots14

6Penalty minutes6

17Giveaways15

6Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 2.90 xGMIN 2.62 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF33 on goal, 2 scored

MIN24 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Tuch	RW	0	1	1	4	1	0	0	2	16:32	1:45
J. Doan	RW	1	0	1	5	1	0	0	0	12:33	2:07
B. Malenstyn	LW	1	0	1	3	3	0	+1	0	12:31	0:00
P. Krebs	C	0	1	1	4	2	1	+2	0	12:22	0:00
N. Ostlund	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	0	12:20	0:06
J. Dunne	C	0	1	1	0	4	0	+1	0	10:20	0:00
R. McLeod	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	21:43	1:48
J. Quinn	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	19:29	1:53
T. Thompson	C	0	0	0	4	0	1	-1	0	18:14	2:23
J. Zucker	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	17:34	2:41
Z. Benson	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	17:32	2:27
T. Kozak	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	12:28	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	0	0	0	4	2	3	-2	2	28:26	2:45
B. Byram	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	23:54	2:20
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	2	23:34	0:15
C. Timmins	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	21:18	0:03
O. Power	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	19:44	2:02
J. Bryson	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:26	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Ellis	24	22	2	.917	65:00	Win
U. Luukkonen	0	0	0	–	0:00

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Kaprizov	LW	1	0	1	6	1	1	-1	0	25:01	3:02
M. Boldy	LW	1	0	1	4	1	1	+1	2	21:52	3:05
M. Zuccarello	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	0	18:49	3:04
D. Yurov	RW	0	1	1	1	1	2	-1	0	14:25	0:00
J. Eriksson Ek	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	+1	0	22:20	2:35
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	17:39	1:56
M. Johansson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	17:28	1:29
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	1	7	0	0	0	13:43	0:00
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	12:40	1:27
L. Ohgren	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	9:34	0:00
N. Sturm	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	8:39	0:00
T. Pitlick	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	4:53	0:00
B. Faber	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	25:07	0:59
J. Brodin	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	23:52	0:02
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	2	21:24	1:24
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	19:54	0:00
Z. Buium	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	18:02	3:32
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:47	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Gustavsson	33	31	2	.939	64:51	OT loss
J. Wallstedt	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BUF

Line 1R. McLeod13:38J. Quinn14:30J. Zucker14:04

Line 2T. Thompson14:25Z. Benson13:44T. Kozak11:30

Line 3B. Malenstyn10:53P. Krebs11:50J. Dunne10:20

Line 4J. Doan10:22N. Ostlund12:10A. Tuch10:16

Pair 1M. Samuelsson19:17R. Dahlin22:14

Pair 2C. Timmins17:39B. Byram17:08

Pair 3J. Bryson8:22O. Power14:18

MIN

Line 1K. Kaprizov18:05D. Yurov14:18M. Zuccarello15:40

Line 2J. Ek14:23M. Boldy14:41M. Johansson12:36

Line 3V. Tarasenko11:09R. Hartman14:26L. Ohgren9:34

Line 4Y. Trenin11:31N. Sturm6:34T. Pitlick4:53

Pair 1J. Brodin20:47B. Faber18:37

Pair 2J. Spurgeon15:50J. Middleton17:15

Pair 3Z. Bogosian12:58Z. Buium13:23

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayJared Spurgeon MIN Turns 36 that day1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BUF 3.1, MIN 3.3	BUF 3, MIN 2
Total goals	6.4	5
Shots on goal	BUF 29.0, MIN 29.2	BUF 33, MIN 24
Win chance	MIN 54%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.7	6	1.38	1	48%	1
MIN M. Boldy	3.3	4	1.06	1	35%	1
MIN J. Ek	3.3	2	0.82	0	30%	0
BUF T. Thompson	3.2	4	0.82	0	36%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.8	4	0.75	0	14%	0
BUF J. Doan	2.3	5	0.49	1	19%	1
MIN R. Hartman	2.2	1	0.53	0	22%	0
BUF J. Zucker	2.2	0	0.58	0	22%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.2	4	0.66	1	26%	0
MIN M. Zuccarello	2.2	0	0.92	1	25%	0
BUF J. Quinn	2.0	2	0.59	0	22%	0
MIN B. Faber	2.0	2	0.48	0	12%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.8	2	0.49	0	15%	0
MIN V. Tarasenko	1.7	2	0.56	0	22%	0
MIN D. Yurov	1.7	1	0.43	1	18%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.6	1	0.57	0	19%	0
BUF O. Power	1.5	2	0.37	0	6%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.4	0	0.52	0	18%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.4	1	0.41	0	10%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.4	1	0.28	0	14%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.4	0	0.40	0	8%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.3	1	0.28	0	6%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.3	0	0.40	0	10%	0
BUF N. Ostlund	1.2	0	0.26	1	14%	0
MIN L. Ohgren	1.1	2	0.19	0	10%	0
MIN J. Middleton	1.1	0	0.28	0	7%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	1.1	3	0.16	1	7%	1
BUF C. Timmins	1.0	1	0.25	0	4%	0
MIN Z. Buium	1.0	0	0.44	0	8%	0
BUF P. Krebs	0.9	4	0.25	1	8%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.9	0	0.19	0	4%	0
MIN N. Sturm	0.9	1	0.21	0	10%	0
BUF T. Kozak	0.9	1	0.25	0	13%	0
BUF J. Dunne	0.7	0	0.11	1	7%	0
MIN T. Pitlick	0.7	0	0.14	0	6%	0
BUF J. Bryson	0.4	0	0.13	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.