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Game Recap
BUF3
Final/SOTue, Oct 13, 2026Every game that night
MTL4

MTL beat BUF 4-3 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 3.48 expected goals to 2.27. MTL outshot BUF 38 to 17. O. Zellweger led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). A. Texier had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. J. Fowler stopped 14 of 17.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdSOT
BUF10203
MTL12014
  1. 1st 2:16BUFO. Zellweger0.02 xG
  2. 1st 14:28MTLL. HutsonPP0.14 xG
  3. 2nd 1:19MTLC. Caufield0.10 xG
  4. 2nd 19:10MTLJ. Anderson0.09 xG
  5. 3rd 4:24BUFJ. Norris0.03 xG
  6. 3rd 5:25BUFO. Zellweger0.03 xG

Team Stats

BUFMTL
17Shots on goal38
2.27Expected goals3.48
41Shot attempts54
135v5 shots on goal25
0/5Power play1/3
24Hits22
7Blocked shots15
8Penalty minutes10
17Giveaways18
4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 2.27 xGMTL 3.48 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdOTBUF goal, 2:16MTL goal, 14:28MTL goal, 1:19MTL goal, 19:10BUF goal, 4:24BUF goal, 5:25

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF15 on goal, 3 scored
MTL35 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
B. MalenstynLW022051+2011:550:05
Z. BensonLW0111310019:365:18
J. NorrisC101120+2011:512:28
T. ThompsonC000101+1022:265:54
N. OstlundC000110-1019:405:16
J. QuinnRW0003300019:015:40
J. DoanRW0002110017:232:19
J.KulichC000210-1016:512:29
R. McLeodC000000-1014:221:06
K. HeleniusC000020-1014:151:44
P. KrebsC0000100213:120:00
J. DanforthRW000001+229:580:03
M. SamuelssonD022021+1026:380:08
O. ZellwegerD202411+1225:492:14
D. GilbertD011010+108:410:00
O. PowerD000000-1028:225:54
Z. MetsaD0001000014:580:00
L. CrevierD0001100212:430:04
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
U. Luukkonen38353.92165:00OT loss
C. Ellis000–0:00

MTL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. CaufieldRW1125100019:463:07
J. SlafkovskýLW0223010219:413:09
N. SuzukiC0115120023:323:07
Z. BolducRW0111200014:581:15
J. AndersonRW101200+1214:210:00
P. DanaultC0003100017:250:06
A. NewhookC0001010215:191:31
A. TexierLW000520-1014:361:32
C. KreiderLW0000210213:503:17
J. EvansC000211-1013:420:00
K. DachC000021-129:401:30
O. BeckC000121-106:590:00
L. HutsonD112201+1027:073:24
K. GuhleD0002100025:250:01
A. CarrierD0002130021:550:00
N. DobsonD0002510018:560:47
A. XhekajD000002-2014:260:00
A. EngstromD000210-1013:220:29
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Fowler17143.82465:00Win
J. Dobes000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BUF

Line 1T. Thompson14:01J. Doan14:04P. Krebs12:46
Line 2N. Ostlund12:43Z. Benson11:21J. Quinn11:28
Line 3K. Helenius11:53R. McLeod9:51J.Kulich12:42
Line 4B. Malenstyn8:49J. Danforth8:54J. Norris7:43
Pair 1O. Zellweger19:45M. Samuelsson21:04
Pair 2O. Power17:38Z. Metsa13:16
Pair 3D. Gilbert7:59L. Crevier10:48

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki15:55J. Slafkovský14:31C. Caufield13:46
Line 2A. Texier11:45Z. Bolduc12:44P. Danault12:58
Line 3C. Kreider9:55J. Anderson11:38A. Newhook10:06
Line 4J. Evans8:27O. Beck6:59K. Dach7:06
Pair 1A. Carrier15:43K. Guhle18:10
Pair 2N. Dobson12:55L. Hutson20:01
Pair 3A. Engstrom12:53A. Xhekaj11:13

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

13 of 22 overs hit (59%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
MTL C. Caufield3.5+126-1355Over
BUF T. Thompson3.5+132-1601Under
BUF J. Quinn2.5+122-1503Over
MTL J. Slafkovský2.5+116-1303Over
MTL N. Suzuki2.5+120-1505Over
MTL A. Newhook1.5+110-1401Under
MTL A. Texier1.5+150-1905Over
MTL C. Kreider1.5-150+1200Under
MTL J. Anderson1.5+110-1352Over
BUF J. Doan1.5-115-1052Over
BUF J. Norris1.5+110-1501Under
BUF J.Kulich1.5+125-1752Over
MTL K. Guhle1.5+135-1702Over
BUF K. Helenius1.5-150–0Under
MTL L. Hutson1.5-108-1102Over
MTL N. Dobson1.5-148+1352Over
BUF N. Ostlund1.5+100-1201Under
BUF O. Power1.5+105-1350Under
BUF O. Zellweger1.5+155–4Over
MTL P. Danault1.5+120-1653Over
BUF Z. Benson1.5-130+1051Under
MTL Z. Bolduc1.5+106-1301Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreBUF 3.2, MTL 3.2BUF 3, MTL 4
Total goals6.47
Shots on goalBUF 28.5, MTL 25.3BUF 17, MTL 38
Win chanceMTL 50%MTL won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
BUF T. Thompson3.310.89036%0
MTL C. Caufield3.250.98240%1
BUF J. Quinn2.530.66024%0
MTL J. Slafkovský2.430.85230%0
MTL N. Suzuki2.451.22135%0
BUF Z. Benson2.110.68122%0
BUF J. Doan2.020.54021%0
MTL N. Dobson1.920.54011%0
BUF K. Helenius1.800.39016%0
MTL C. Kreider1.700.72031%0
BUF J.Kulich1.720.35017%0
MTL A. Newhook1.610.56025%0
BUF O. Zellweger1.640.2928%2
MTL L. Hutson1.620.99212%1
MTL J. Anderson1.520.39120%1
BUF N. Ostlund1.510.54020%0
BUF O. Power1.500.53010%0
MTL Z. Bolduc1.410.45120%0
MTL A. Texier1.350.44017%0
BUF J. Norris1.310.45120%1
BUF M. Samuelsson1.200.3729%0
MTL P. Danault1.230.45017%0
BUF P. Krebs1.200.45013%0
BUF L. Crevier1.110.2205%0
BUF R. McLeod1.000.49016%0
MTL J. Evans1.020.40015%0
MTL K. Guhle0.920.3106%0
MTL K. Dach0.800.28011%0
MTL O. Beck0.810.1207%0
MTL A. Carrier0.820.3306%0
BUF Z. Metsa0.710.1805%0
MTL A. Engstrom0.720.1002%0
BUF B. Malenstyn0.700.1426%0
MTL A. Xhekaj0.500.0802%0
BUF D. Gilbert0.400.1612%0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.