Game Recap: BUF 3, MTL 4 (OT), October 17, 2026

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Game Recap

BUF3

Final/OTSat, Oct 17, 2026Every game that night

MTL4

MTL beat BUF 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 4.17 expected goals to 3.68. MTL outshot BUF 34 to 26. C. Caufield led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). Z. Bolduc had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. J. Fowler stopped 23 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
BUF	1	1	1	0	3
MTL	2	1	0	1	4

1st 8:21BUFJ. Norris0.59 xG
1st 11:45MTLZ. BolducPP0.09 xG
1st 14:01MTLC. Caufield0.03 xG
2nd 7:39MTLA. Texier0.28 xG
2nd 9:52BUFJ. QuinnSH0.28 xG
3rd 10:12BUFT. Thompson0.23 xG
OT 0:54MTLC. Caufield0.35 xG

Team Stats

BUFMTL

26Shots on goal34

3.68Expected goals4.17

52Shot attempts66

215v5 shots on goal22

0/4Power play1/5

18Hits20

17Blocked shots13

10Penalty minutes8

18Giveaways9

7Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 3.68 xGMTL 4.17 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF24 on goal, 3 scored

MTL34 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Quinn	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	21:30	5:11
Z. Benson	LW	0	1	1	3	0	1	+1	2	21:17	4:58
T. Thompson	C	1	0	1	5	1	1	-1	0	19:19	4:50
J. Doan	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	15:14	0:44
J. Norris	C	1	0	1	4	1	2	-1	0	14:30	0:51
J.Kulich	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	13:00	0:54
K. Helenius	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	9:11	0:44
N. Ostlund	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	4	19:44	5:09
R. McLeod	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	14:35	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	0	7	1	0	0	12:12	0:00
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:04	0:00
J. Danforth	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:34	0:00
M. Samuelsson	D	0	1	1	2	3	2	+1	2	26:59	0:15
O. Power	D	0	0	0	3	0	3	0	0	27:39	5:30
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	20:47	0:56
Z. Metsa	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	14:57	0:03
L. Crevier	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	14:12	0:00
D. Gilbert	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	11:31	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
U. Luukkonen	34	30	4	.882	60:01	OT loss
C. Ellis	0	0	0	–	0:00

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Caufield	RW	2	0	2	5	0	0	+2	0	18:03	5:44
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	2	2	1	1	2	+1	2	17:51	5:46
N. Suzuki	C	0	1	1	2	3	1	+1	0	20:49	5:50
Z. Bolduc	RW	1	0	1	5	2	0	0	0	14:48	4:16
A. Texier	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	2	11:29	0:53
A. Newhook	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	16:21	0:50
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	15:06	0:49
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	2	3	0	-2	0	14:22	0:00
C. Kreider	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-2	0	14:06	0:40
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	13:29	0:00
O. Kapanen	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	2	11:40	1:28
K. Dach	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	11:37	0:00
A. Carrier	D	0	2	2	1	0	2	+2	0	22:08	0:00
K. Guhle	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	23:21	0:04
L. Hutson	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	2	26:38	6:05
N. Dobson	D	0	0	0	3	2	1	-2	0	21:16	0:40
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	12:29	0:00
D. Reinbacher	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	9:09	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Fowler	26	23	3	.885	60:54	Win
J. Dobes	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BUF

Line 1J. Quinn14:18N. Ostlund13:44Z. Benson14:02

Line 2T. Thompson11:56J. Doan13:57R. McLeod10:56

Line 3J. Danforth8:34P. Krebs9:00B. Malenstyn8:23

Line 4J. Norris9:31K. Helenius8:27J.Kulich10:27

Pair 1M. Samuelsson20:46O. Zellweger16:55

Pair 2O. Power17:14Z. Metsa11:49

Pair 3D. Gilbert10:16L. Crevier12:15

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki12:42J. Slafkovský11:37C. Caufield10:29

Line 2C. Kreider13:21A. Newhook12:40J. Anderson11:32

Line 3K. Dach11:32O. Kapanen10:12J. Evans9:47

Line 4P. Danault9:36A. Texier10:11Z. Bolduc9:20

Pair 1L. Hutson19:04N. Dobson16:57

Pair 2A. Carrier16:53K. Guhle17:48

Pair 3A. Xhekaj9:40D. Reinbacher9:09

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

10 of 15 overs hit (67%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
MTL C. Caufield	3.5	+120	-140	5	Over
BUF T. Thompson	3.5	+120	-148	5	Over
BUF J. Quinn	2.5	+120	-125	2	Under
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.5	+105	-120	1	Under
MTL N. Dobson	2.5	+150	-180	3	Over
MTL N. Suzuki	2.5	+110	-135	2	Under
MTL A. Newhook	1.5	-105	-115	2	Over
MTL C. Kreider	1.5	-130	+105	2	Over
BUF J. Doan	1.5	-140	+120	1	Under
BUF J. Norris	1.5	+115	-150	4	Over
MTL L. Hutson	1.5	-110	-105	3	Over
BUF N. Ostlund	1.5	+105	-120	1	Under
BUF O. Power	1.5	-105	-115	3	Over
BUF O. Zellweger	1.5	-160	+140	4	Over
BUF Z. Benson	1.5	-148	+130	3	Over

6 of 36 overs hit (17%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
MTL A. Carrier	0.5	+2100	-3500	0	Under
MTL A. Newhook	0.5	+390	-600	0	Under
MTL A. Texier	0.5	+460	-800	1	Over
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.5	+3000	-10000	0	Under
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.5	+1300	-1600	0	Under
MTL C. Caufield	0.5	+130	-150	2	Over
MTL C. Kreider	0.5	+240	-320	0	Under
BUF D. Gilbert	0.5	+2200	-5000	0	Under
MTL D. Reinbacher	0.5	+1400	-4000	0	Under
MTL J. Anderson	0.5	+400	-750	0	Under
BUF J. Danforth	0.5	+800	–	0	Under
BUF J. Doan	0.5	+310	-450	0	Under
MTL J. Evans	0.5	+750	-1600	0	Under
BUF J. Norris	0.5	+380	-650	1	Over
BUF J. Quinn	0.5	+250	-300	1	Over
MTL J. Slafkovský	0.5	+210	-280	0	Under
BUF J.Kulich	0.5	+500	-1000	0	Under
MTL K. Dach	0.5	+600	-1200	0	Under
MTL K. Guhle	0.5	+1100	-3500	0	Under
BUF K. Helenius	0.5	+430	-750	0	Under
BUF L. Crevier	0.5	+1600	-2800	0	Under
MTL L. Hutson	0.5	+600	-750	0	Under
BUF M. Samuelsson	0.5	+900	-2000	0	Under
MTL N. Dobson	0.5	+700	-1200	0	Under
BUF N. Ostlund	0.5	+375	-475	0	Under
MTL N. Suzuki	0.5	+195	-225	0	Under
MTL O. Kapanen	0.5	+550	-700	0	Under
BUF O. Power	0.5	+600	-1400	0	Under
BUF O. Zellweger	0.5	+700	-1000	0	Under
MTL P. Danault	0.5	+700	-1000	0	Under
BUF P. Krebs	0.5	+600	-1000	0	Under
BUF R. McLeod	0.5	+550	-700	0	Under
BUF T. Thompson	0.5	+150	-200	1	Over
BUF Z. Benson	0.5	+320	-370	0	Under
MTL Z. Bolduc	0.5	+380	-700	1	Over
BUF Z. Metsa	0.5	+2400	-4000	0	Under

5 of 19 overs hit (26%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
MTL A. Newhook	0.5	+300	-375	0	Under
MTL C. Caufield	0.5	+135	-165	0	Under
MTL C. Kreider	0.5	+200	-270	0	Under
MTL J. Anderson	0.5	+350	-700	0	Under
BUF J. Doan	0.5	+235	-285	1	Over
BUF J. Norris	0.5	+215	-350	0	Under
BUF J. Quinn	0.5	+186	-220	0	Under
MTL J. Slafkovský	0.5	+135	-155	2	Over
MTL L. Hutson	0.5	-155	+115	0	Under
BUF M. Samuelsson	0.5	+270	-500	1	Over
MTL N. Dobson	0.5	+200	-235	0	Under
BUF N. Ostlund	0.5	+190	-220	0	Under
MTL N. Suzuki	0.5	-145	+110	1	Over
BUF O. Power	0.5	+135	-175	0	Under
BUF O. Zellweger	0.5	+235	-265	0	Under
BUF R. McLeod	0.5	+230	-250	0	Under
BUF T. Thompson	0.5	+150	-165	0	Under
BUF Z. Benson	0.5	+196	-200	1	Over
MTL Z. Bolduc	0.5	+320	-600	0	Under

9 of 19 overs hit (47%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
MTL N. Suzuki	1.5	+180	-200	1	Under
MTL A. Newhook	0.5	+160	-155	0	Under
MTL C. Caufield	0.5	-220	+170	2	Over
MTL C. Kreider	0.5	-105	-115	0	Under
MTL J. Anderson	0.5	+190	-260	0	Under
BUF J. Doan	0.5	+120	-135	1	Over
BUF J. Norris	0.5	+130	-160	1	Over
BUF J. Quinn	0.5	-115	-105	1	Over
MTL J. Slafkovský	0.5	-160	+135	2	Over
MTL L. Hutson	0.5	-175	+155	0	Under
BUF M. Samuelsson	0.5	+210	-300	1	Over
MTL N. Dobson	0.5	+145	-150	0	Under
BUF N. Ostlund	0.5	+105	-125	0	Under
BUF O. Power	0.5	+105	-125	0	Under
BUF O. Zellweger	0.5	+164	-175	0	Under
BUF R. McLeod	0.5	+146	-160	0	Under
BUF T. Thompson	0.5	-180	+145	1	Over
BUF Z. Benson	0.5	+115	-118	1	Over
MTL Z. Bolduc	0.5	+180	-250	1	Over

3 of 20 overs hit (15%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
MTL A. Newhook	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
MTL A. Texier	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
MTL C. Caufield	0.5	+170	-200	0	Under
MTL C. Kreider	0.5	+290	-400	0	Under
BUF J. Doan	0.5	+390	-500	0	Under
BUF J. Norris	0.5	+380	-900	0	Under
BUF J. Quinn	0.5	+260	-400	0	Under
MTL J. Slafkovský	0.5	+200	-275	1	Over
BUF K. Helenius	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
MTL L. Hutson	0.5	+150	-190	0	Under
MTL N. Dobson	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
BUF N. Ostlund	0.5	+350	-550	0	Under
MTL N. Suzuki	0.5	+160	-170	1	Over
MTL O. Kapanen	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
BUF O. Power	0.5	+380	-500	0	Under
BUF O. Zellweger	0.5	+400	-1100	0	Under
BUF R. McLeod	0.5	+400	-1100	0	Under
BUF T. Thompson	0.5	+220	-280	0	Under
BUF Z. Benson	0.5	+280	-450	0	Under
MTL Z. Bolduc	0.5	+500	-1600	1	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
BUF U. Luukkonen	25.5	-106	-105	30	Over
MTL J. Fowler	23.5	+100	-120	23	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BUF 3.3, MTL 3.1	BUF 3, MTL 4
Total goals	6.5	7
Shots on goal	BUF 28.3, MTL 25.7	BUF 26, MTL 34
Win chance	BUF 52%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	3.4	5	0.98	1	39%	1
MTL C. Caufield	3.2	5	0.95	2	39%	2
BUF J. Quinn	2.6	2	0.73	1	25%	1
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.4	1	0.82	2	28%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.4	2	1.16	1	33%	0
BUF Z. Benson	2.2	3	0.75	1	23%	0
BUF J. Doan	2.1	1	0.58	1	23%	0
BUF O. Zellweger	1.9	4	0.37	0	10%	0
MTL N. Dobson	1.9	3	0.50	0	10%	0
BUF K. Helenius	1.8	0	0.39	1	17%	0
MTL C. Kreider	1.7	2	0.69	0	30%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.6	2	0.54	0	23%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.6	3	0.94	0	12%	0
BUF N. Ostlund	1.6	1	0.64	0	23%	0
BUF O. Power	1.6	3	0.61	0	12%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.5	2	0.38	0	19%	0
BUF J. Norris	1.4	4	0.51	1	23%	1
BUF J.Kulich	1.4	0	0.31	1	15%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.4	2	0.46	1	10%	0
MTL A. Texier	1.4	2	0.42	1	17%	1
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.3	5	0.45	1	19%	1
MTL P. Danault	1.3	0	0.45	0	17%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.2	0	0.55	0	18%	0
BUF L. Crevier	1.1	0	0.23	0	6%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.1	0	0.42	0	13%	0
MTL K. Guhle	1.0	0	0.32	1	7%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.0	0	0.37	0	13%	0
MTL O. Kapanen	0.9	3	0.25	0	12%	0
MTL K. Dach	0.8	1	0.27	0	11%	0
MTL A. Carrier	0.8	1	0.32	2	6%	0
BUF Z. Metsa	0.7	1	0.22	0	5%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.7	0	0.16	0	7%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.6	1	0.09	0	3%	0
BUF D. Gilbert	0.4	0	0.18	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.