NJD beat BUF 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.47 expected goals to 2.42. NJD outshot BUF 37 to 18. J. Hughes led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). T. Meier had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 3.7. J. Allen stopped 17 of 18.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| NJD | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
- 2nd 8:18BUFT. Thompson0.46 xG
- 2nd 11:59NJDS. CaseyPP0.06 xG
- 3rd 7:18NJDP. Cotter0.23 xG
- 3rd 14:14NJDT. Meier0.25 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BUF 2.42 xGNJD 3.47 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 20:07 | 0:56 |
| J. Greenway | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:45 | 0:52 |
| T. Thompson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 19:06 | 1:45 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:10 | 2:15 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:12 | 0:03 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:48 | 2:04 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:13 | 1:55 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:11 | 2:00 |
| J.Kulich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 14:00 | 1:50 |
| S. Lafferty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:34 | 0:00 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:33 | 0:00 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1:39 | 0:00 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 24:56 | 1:58 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 24:42 | 2:04 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:59 | 2:14 |
| H. Jokiharju | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:04 | 0:00 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:29 | 0:04 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:26 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Levi | 37 | 34 | 3 | .919 | 56:46 | Loss |
| U. Luukkonen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Hughes | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:37 | 4:52 |
| T. Meier | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:24 | 4:39 |
| J. Bratt | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:19 | 4:21 |
| P. Cotter | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:42 | 0:02 |
| E. Haula | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:16 | 2:07 |
| S. Noesen | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:48 | 2:31 |
| N. Hischier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:44 | 4:34 |
| D. Mercer | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:33 | 2:57 |
| T. Tatar | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:32 | 2:15 |
| C. Lazar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:07 | 0:19 |
| N. Bastian | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:53 | 0:15 |
| K. MacDermid | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:39 | 0:00 |
| S. Casey | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:09 | 3:03 |
| J. Siegenthaler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:29 | 0:15 |
| J. Kovacevic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:43 | 0:07 |
| D. Hamilton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 22:52 | 4:10 |
| S. Nemec | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 15:25 | 0:13 |
| B. Dillon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | +1 | 9 | 14:48 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Allen | 18 | 17 | 1 | .944 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Markstrom | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BUF 3.2, NJD 3.2 | BUF 1, NJD 3 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | BUF 29.8, NJD 29.3 | BUF 18, NJD 37 |
| Win chance | BUF 51% | NJD won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD J. Hughes | 4.4 | 6 | 1.18 | 2 | 39% | 0 |
| NJD T. Meier | 3.7 | 8 | 0.85 | 1 | 36% | 1 |
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.3 | 3 | 0.83 | 1 | 35% | 1 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 3.3 | 0 | 0.68 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| NJD J. Bratt | 3.2 | 5 | 0.98 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 3.0 | 0 | 0.92 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| NJD N. Hischier | 3.0 | 1 | 0.97 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 2.7 | 3 | 0.64 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BUF D. Cozens | 2.7 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.4 | 1 | 0.66 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.3 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| NJD E. Haula | 2.2 | 0 | 0.51 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 2.0 | 0 | 0.58 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.9 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| BUF J. Greenway | 1.8 | 4 | 0.38 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.5 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.3 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NJD S. Noesen | 1.3 | 2 | 0.38 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| NJD P. Cotter | 1.3 | 2 | 0.32 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| NJD T. Tatar | 1.2 | 3 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NJD S. Nemec | 1.2 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dillon | 1.1 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF H. Jokiharju | 1.1 | 4 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NJD J. Siegenthaler | 1.1 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NJD J. Kovacevic | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 1.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NJD N. Bastian | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NJD C. Lazar | 0.9 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF S. Lafferty | 0.7 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NJD K. MacDermid | 0.4 | 0 | 0.08 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 15 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.