Game Recap: BUF 3, NJD 1, December 21, 2025

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Game Recap

BUF3

FinalSun, Dec 21, 2025Every game that night

NJD1

BUF beat NJD 3-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.19 expected goals to 2.89. T. Meier had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.5. U. Luukkonen stopped 26 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BUF	0	2	1	3
NJD	1	0	0	1

1st 8:51NJDJ. Hughes0.10 xG
2nd 2:26BUFJ. Norris0.18 xG
2nd 16:05BUFZ. Benson0.14 xG
3rd 17:59BUFP. KrebsEN0.95 xG

Team Stats

BUFNJD

25Shots on goal27

2.19Expected goals2.89

45Shot attempts71

235v5 shots on goal20

0/0Power play0/1

20Hits16

23Blocked shots13

2Penalty minutes0

16Giveaways18

7Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 2.19 xGNJD 2.89 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF24 on goal, 3 scored

NJD27 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Krebs	C	1	0	1	3	1	1	0	0	17:54	0:00
T. Thompson	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	16:48	0:00
J. Norris	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	+1	0	15:48	0:00
R. McLeod	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	+2	0	14:47	0:00
Z. Benson	LW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	2	13:05	0:00
J. Quinn	RW	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	11:07	0:00
A. Tuch	RW	0	0	0	4	2	1	+1	0	18:47	0:00
N. Ostlund	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	17:08	0:00
J. Doan	RW	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	15:03	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	13:23	0:00
J. Dunne	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:09	0:00
I. Rosen	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:44	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	0	1	1	1	0	4	+2	0	22:34	0:00
B. Byram	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	+1	0	22:18	0:00
O. Power	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	21:43	0:00
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	0	5	4	+1	0	26:07	0:00
M. Kesselring	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	-1	0	15:41	0:00
Z. Metsa	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	11:54	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
U. Luukkonen	27	26	1	.963	60:00	Win
A. Lyon	0	0	0	–	0:00

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
J. Hughes	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	20:57	1:30
D. Mercer	C	0	1	1	2	1	2	+1	15:33	0:35
N. Hischier	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	-2	19:48	1:26
J. Bratt	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-2	19:29	1:24
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	4	1	0	-1	19:03	0:30
C. Glass	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	17:55	0:00
A. Gritsyuk	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	17:09	0:34
T. Meier	RW	0	0	0	7	1	1	-2	16:19	0:34
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	12:47	0:00
S. Noesen	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	11:36	1:26
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	10:22	0:00
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:28	0:00
C. White	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	12:03	0:00
L. Hughes	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-2	26:36	1:25
D. Hamilton	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	22:48	0:36
B. Pesce	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-2	21:11	0:00
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	17:10	0:00
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	14:39	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Allen	24	22	2	.917	56:07	Loss
J. Markstrom	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BUF

Line 1P. Krebs17:02T. Thompson15:39J. Doan15:03

Line 2A. Tuch16:06N. Ostlund14:57J. Norris14:35

Line 3R. McLeod11:12Z. Benson12:16J. Quinn10:44

Line 4J. Dunne12:30B. Malenstyn11:35I. Rosen10:06

Pair 1M. Samuelsson22:19R. Dahlin20:50

Pair 2M. Kesselring14:19O. Power19:29

Pair 3B. Byram19:24Z. Metsa11:54

NJD

Line 1C. Brown17:12C. Glass16:39O. Palat12:01

Line 2J. Bratt15:28N. Hischier15:50T. Meier13:04

Line 3A. Gritsyuk15:42J. Hughes16:50D. Mercer13:35

Line 4L. Glendening8:21P. Cotter10:01S. Noesen7:30

Pair 1B. Pesce21:11L. Hughes23:07

Pair 2D. Hamilton19:50J. Siegenthaler16:57

Pair 3B. Dillon14:39C. White12:03

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BUF 2.9, NJD 3.3	BUF 3, NJD 1
Total goals	6.2	4
Shots on goal	BUF 26.9, NJD 29.9	BUF 25, NJD 27
Win chance	NJD 58%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD J. Hughes	4.4	2	1.38	1	43%	1
NJD T. Meier	3.5	7	0.92	0	38%	0
BUF T. Thompson	3.4	0	0.90	1	39%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	2.9	0	0.63	0	16%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.7	1	0.75	1	15%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.7	3	1.02	0	35%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.6	3	1.09	0	29%	0
NJD A. Gritsyuk	2.5	1	0.61	0	22%	0
BUF J. Doan	2.5	2	0.61	0	22%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.4	4	0.72	0	28%	0
NJD L. Hughes	2.3	0	0.70	0	11%	0
NJD D. Mercer	2.1	2	0.60	1	27%	0
NJD C. Glass	1.9	0	0.44	0	18%	0
NJD C. Brown	1.9	4	0.60	0	22%	0
NJD S. Noesen	1.8	1	0.50	0	21%	0
BUF J. Norris	1.8	1	0.60	1	28%	1
BUF Z. Benson	1.8	1	0.49	1	15%	1
BUF J. Quinn	1.6	0	0.47	1	18%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.5	1	0.48	0	19%	0
BUF O. Power	1.5	2	0.33	1	6%	0
BUF M. Kesselring	1.4	3	0.22	0	5%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.4	0	0.30	0	6%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.3	1	0.37	0	19%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.3	2	0.53	1	19%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.3	0	0.27	0	6%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.2	1	0.38	1	10%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	1.1	1	0.18	0	4%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.1	3	0.28	1	9%	1
BUF I. Rosen	1.1	1	0.30	0	12%	0
BUF N. Ostlund	1.0	1	0.25	0	13%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.9	1	0.14	0	6%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.8	0	0.27	0	6%	0
BUF J. Dunne	0.7	1	0.12	0	6%	0
NJD L. Glendening	0.6	0	0.13	0	8%	0
NJD C. White	0.6	1	0.16	1	2%	0
BUF Z. Metsa	0.6	1	0.08	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.