Game Recap: BUF 5, NYI 0, January 24, 2026

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Game Recap

BUF5

FinalSat, Jan 24, 2026Every game that night

NYI0

BUF beat NYI 5-0, with the chances close: 2.11 expected goals to 2.45. J. Zucker led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). E. Heineman had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. A. Lyon stopped 26 of 26.

Team Stats

BUFNYI

21Shots on goal26

2.11Expected goals2.45

45Shot attempts54

205v5 shots on goal22

0/2Power play0/3

16Hits24

11Blocked shots13

6Penalty minutes6

14Giveaways16

7Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 2.11 xGNYI 2.45 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF20 on goal, 4 scored

NYI26 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. McLeod	C	0	2	2	1	0	0	+2	0	18:14	1:29
J. Zucker	LW	2	0	2	3	0	2	+2	0	13:44	2:39
A. Tuch	RW	1	0	1	1	0	2	+2	0	17:57	1:16
Z. Benson	LW	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	2	17:32	1:20
T. Thompson	C	1	0	1	3	2	0	+1	0	17:06	2:50
J. Quinn	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+2	0	13:12	1:13
P. Krebs	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	+2	0	12:44	0:00
N. Ostlund	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	16:56	2:31
J. Doan	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	+2	0	15:19	2:42
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	12:26	0:00
K. Helenius	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	11:03	0:00
T. Kozak	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	9:44	0:00
M. Samuelsson	D	0	2	2	1	2	1	+4	2	21:32	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	1	0	1	3	2	0	+4	0	24:44	3:16
M. Kesselring	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	+1	2	13:45	0:00
O. Power	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	24:30	0:00
B. Byram	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	21:18	0:44
Z. Metsa	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:14	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Lyon	26	26	0	1.000	60:00	Win
C. Ellis	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Holmstrom	RW	1	0	0	-2	0	19:51	2:56
B. Horvat	C	4	2	0	-2	0	19:20	3:31
J. Drouin	LW	0	0	0	-2	0	17:18	3:16
J. Pageau	C	1	1	1	-1	0	16:58	1:02
E. Heineman	LW	6	3	0	-2	0	16:36	2:42
C. Ritchie	C	3	3	0	-2	0	15:01	3:08
M. Shabanov	RW	1	1	0	-1	0	14:43	1:02
M. Barzal	C	0	0	0	-1	0	12:45	1:54
C. Cizikas	C	1	3	2	-1	0	12:43	0:00
K. MacLean	C	1	2	1	-1	0	12:35	0:10
A. Duclair	LW	0	0	4	-1	0	12:15	1:51
A. Lee	LW	3	1	0	-1	2	11:28	1:31
M. Schaefer	D	1	1	1	-1	2	23:14	3:14
T. DeAngelo	D	2	0	0	-2	0	21:28	2:43
A. Pelech	D	1	3	1	-3	0	20:26	0:06
S. Mayfield	D	1	2	2	-2	2	19:26	0:05
A. Boqvist	D	0	2	0	0	0	15:54	0:49
I. George	D	0	0	1	-1	0	13:56	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Rittich	20	16	4	.800	58:03	Loss
I. Sorokin	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BUF

Line 1N. Ostlund13:57Z. Benson14:10K. Helenius11:03

Line 2A. Tuch12:04J. Doan12:30T. Thompson13:57

Line 3R. McLeod11:09J. Quinn10:55J. Zucker10:01

Line 4B. Malenstyn8:33T. Kozak8:00P. Krebs11:51

Pair 1M. Samuelsson17:42R. Dahlin17:55

Pair 2O. Power19:38B. Byram15:42

NYI

Line 1J. Pageau13:14M. Shabanov12:37S. Holmstrom12:18

Line 2J. Drouin11:49E. Heineman12:47B. Horvat11:39

Line 3C. Cizikas11:08K. MacLean12:25C. Ritchie10:42

Line 4A. Duclair9:38M. Barzal10:03A. Lee9:11

Pair 1A. Pelech16:42T. DeAngelo16:39

Pair 2S. Mayfield17:01M. Schaefer16:54

Pair 3A. Boqvist12:59I. George12:29

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BUF 3.0, NYI 3.2	BUF 5, NYI 0
Total goals	6.3	5
Shots on goal	BUF 26.6, NYI 29.4	BUF 21, NYI 26
Win chance	NYI 53%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	3.2	3	0.90	1	38%	1
NYI B. Horvat	3.1	4	0.82	0	35%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.6	3	0.76	1	16%	1
NYI A. Lee	2.5	3	0.59	0	26%	0
NYI M. Barzal	2.5	0	0.94	0	25%	0
NYI M. Schaefer	2.4	1	0.70	0	18%	0
NYI E. Heineman	2.3	6	0.58	0	27%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.3	1	0.72	1	28%	1
BUF J. Zucker	2.1	3	0.64	2	24%	2
BUF J. Doan	2.0	0	0.59	0	21%	0
NYI T. DeAngelo	2.0	2	0.52	0	10%	0
BUF J. Quinn	1.9	2	0.53	1	19%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.7	0	0.58	0	26%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.6	0	0.41	1	13%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.6	1	0.28	0	5%	0
BUF O. Power	1.6	1	0.39	0	6%	0
NYI C. Ritchie	1.5	3	0.47	0	19%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.4	1	0.61	0	25%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.4	2	0.50	0	13%	0
NYI J. Drouin	1.4	0	0.58	0	15%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.3	1	0.36	2	7%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.3	1	0.57	2	19%	0
BUF M. Kesselring	1.2	1	0.19	1	4%	0
NYI M. Shabanov	1.2	1	0.40	0	13%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.2	1	0.47	0	17%	0
BUF N. Ostlund	1.1	0	0.45	0	18%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.1	1	0.29	0	12%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.0	0	0.28	1	9%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.9	1	0.18	0	9%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.8	0	0.15	0	7%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.8	1	0.17	0	4%	0
NYI A. Boqvist	0.7	0	0.22	0	5%	0
NYI I. George	0.7	0	0.13	0	3%	0
BUF T. Kozak	0.7	0	0.16	0	9%	0
BUF Z. Metsa	0.4	1	0.10	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.