Game Recap: BUF 5, NYR 3, April 8, 2026

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Game Recap

BUF5

FinalWed, Apr 8, 2026Every game that night

NYR3

BUF beat NYR 5-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.08 expected goals to 2.14. Z. Benson led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). U. Luukkonen stopped 17 of 20.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BUF	2	0	3	5
NYR	1	2	0	3

1st 4:40BUFR. McLeod0.11 xG
1st 8:58BUFZ. Benson0.32 xG
1st 19:21NYRA. LafrenièrePP0.08 xG
2nd 2:57NYRA. Lafrenière0.15 xG
2nd 14:44NYRA. FoxPP0.10 xG
3rd 5:51BUFA. Tuch0.10 xG
3rd 7:14BUFJ. Zucker0.60 xG
3rd 18:45BUFZ. BensonEN0.95 xG

Team Stats

BUFNYR

27Shots on goal20

4.08Expected goals2.14

52Shot attempts53

225v5 shots on goal15

0/4Power play2/3

19Hits26

19Blocked shots11

6Penalty minutes8

15Giveaways12

6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 4.08 xGNYR 2.14 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF27 on goal, 5 scored

NYR20 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Zucker	LW	1	1	2	4	0	1	+2	0	18:14	4:40
R. McLeod	C	1	1	2	2	0	1	+1	2	17:10	1:08
Z. Benson	LW	2	0	2	3	0	1	+1	0	12:59	1:09
T. Thompson	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	22:18	4:53
A. Tuch	RW	1	0	1	1	0	2	+1	0	19:05	0:55
P. Krebs	C	0	1	1	2	3	1	+1	2	15:04	0:00
J. Norris	C	0	1	1	2	0	2	+2	2	14:46	4:33
J. Doan	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	13:08	1:16
J. Quinn	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+2	0	19:24	4:32
T. Kozak	C	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	10:50	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	10:15	0:00
T. Pearson	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	8:52	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+2	0	24:30	4:50
B. Byram	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	22:07	0:58
C. Timmins	D	0	1	1	1	0	4	+2	0	16:26	0:00
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	+1	0	20:39	0:00
O. Power	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	20:09	0:06
M. Kesselring	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	0	10:37	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
U. Luukkonen	20	17	3	.850	60:00	Win
C. Ellis	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Lafrenière	LW	2	0	2	2	0	0	-2	0	15:07	2:07
J. Miller	C	0	1	1	3	0	1	-1	0	20:51	2:11
V. Trocheck	C	0	1	1	0	3	1	-1	2	18:48	2:11
M. Zibanejad	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	-3	0	18:44	2:11
T. Kartye	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:07	0:00
W. Cuylle	LW	0	0	0	3	8	1	-2	0	15:46	0:00
N. Laba	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	13:33	0:00
C. Sheary	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:28	0:00
G. Perreault	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	12:09	0:00
J. Brodzinski	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	12:03	0:00
A. Sykora	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	11:16	0:00
J. Chmelar	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	11:15	0:00
A. Fox	D	1	1	2	1	1	0	-1	2	23:20	2:11
D. Fortescue	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	-1	0	13:34	0:00
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	2	24:41	0:00
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	3	5	2	-2	0	22:35	0:00
M. Robertson	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	15:52	0:00
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	2	15:24	0:04

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	26	22	4	.846	58:27	Loss
J. Quick	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BUF

Line 1T. Thompson16:33P. Krebs14:38A. Tuch14:59

Line 2J. Zucker13:14J. Quinn13:51R. McLeod13:41

Line 3J. Doan11:31Z. Benson10:59J. Norris9:52

Line 4T. Pearson8:52B. Malenstyn9:18T. Kozak10:00

Pair 1M. Samuelsson17:30R. Dahlin19:40

Pair 2B. Byram18:46O. Power17:46

Pair 3C. Timmins14:13M. Kesselring10:37

NYR

Line 1J. Miller14:22T. Kartye14:01C. Sheary12:28

Line 2J. Brodzinski11:48W. Cuylle12:58V. Trocheck13:27

Line 3J. Chmelar11:15A. Sykora11:16N. Laba11:26

Line 4A. Lafrenière10:50M. Zibanejad11:23G. Perreault12:09

Pair 1V. Gavrikov20:51A. Fox18:12

Pair 2W. Borgen13:54M. Robertson14:36

Pair 3B. Schneider17:30D. Fortescue13:34

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BUF 3.3, NYR 3.2	BUF 5, NYR 3
Total goals	6.5	8
Shots on goal	BUF 28.9, NYR 26.5	BUF 27, NYR 20
Win chance	BUF 52%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	3.2	2	0.96	1	38%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.5	2	0.92	1	30%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.5	2	0.79	1	16%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.4	1	0.76	1	29%	1
BUF J. Quinn	2.3	1	0.65	0	21%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.2	2	0.72	2	26%	2
BUF J. Zucker	2.0	4	0.66	2	25%	1
NYR J. Miller	1.9	3	0.89	1	28%	0
NYR V. Trocheck	1.9	0	0.79	1	26%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.8	3	0.44	0	20%	0
BUF J. Doan	1.7	1	0.47	1	19%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.6	3	0.49	2	14%	2
BUF J. Norris	1.6	2	0.63	1	27%	0
NYR A. Fox	1.6	1	0.80	2	12%	1
NYR G. Perreault	1.5	0	0.49	0	18%	0
BUF O. Power	1.5	1	0.32	0	6%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.4	1	0.38	0	9%	0
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.3	1	0.34	0	14%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.3	2	0.42	1	9%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.3	0	0.35	0	7%	0
NYR C. Sheary	1.3	0	0.35	0	14%	0
NYR A. Sykora	1.3	1	0.42	0	17%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.2	3	0.26	0	6%	0
NYR M. Robertson	1.2	1	0.25	0	6%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.2	2	0.61	2	18%	1
BUF M. Kesselring	1.1	3	0.16	0	3%	0
NYR T. Kartye	1.1	1	0.35	0	14%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.1	2	0.39	1	11%	0
NYR J. Chmelar	1.1	0	0.32	0	15%	0
NYR N. Laba	1.0	1	0.33	0	13%	0
BUF C. Timmins	1.0	1	0.22	1	3%	0
BUF T. Pearson	1.0	0	0.24	0	10%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.0	0	0.22	0	5%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.9	0	0.19	0	8%	0
NYR D. Fortescue	0.7	0	0.19	1	4%	0
BUF T. Kozak	0.6	0	0.14	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.