Game Recap: BUF 3, OTT 2 (OT), December 23, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

BUF3

Final/OTTue, Dec 23, 2025Every game that night

OTT2

BUF beat OTT 3-2 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 1.56 expected goals to 2.98. B. Byram led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). J. Greenway had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. A. Lyon stopped 24 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
BUF	1	1	0	1	3
OTT	1	1	0	0	2

1st 15:22BUFB. Byram0.07 xG
1st 17:13OTTR. Greig0.08 xG
2nd 6:11BUFN. Ostlund0.08 xG
2nd 9:27OTTT. StützlePP0.14 xG
OT 0:31BUFB. Byram0.07 xG

Team Stats

BUFOTT

25Shots on goal26

1.56Expected goals2.98

41Shot attempts63

205v5 shots on goal21

0/1Power play1/3

15Hits19

16Blocked shots9

8Penalty minutes4

10Giveaways11

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 1.56 xGOTT 2.98 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF25 on goal, 3 scored

OTT26 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Tuch	RW	0	1	1	3	1	2	+2	2	18:01	1:11
R. McLeod	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	16:36	1:11
N. Ostlund	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	15:01	0:00
J. Greenway	LW	0	1	1	4	1	0	+1	0	13:36	0:00
J. Dunne	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	13:13	0:00
T. Thompson	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	16:47	0:49
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	0	3	2	+1	0	16:11	0:00
J. Norris	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	14:00	0:48
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	0	14:00	0:01
J. Doan	RW	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	13:28	0:49
Z. Benson	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	12:24	0:48
J. Quinn	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	12:21	1:11
B. Byram	D	2	1	3	2	0	1	+3	0	24:18	1:11
M. Samuelsson	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	26:39	0:01
O. Power	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	25:10	1:11
R. Dahlin	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	22:48	0:49
M. Kesselring	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	4	12:39	0:00
Z. Metsa	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+2	0	8:38	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Lyon	26	24	2	.923	60:31	Win
U. Luukkonen	0	0	0	–	0:00

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Stützle	C	1	0	1	3	2	1	-2	0	21:41	3:18
D. Batherson	RW	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	0	20:42	3:23
D. Cozens	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	19:32	3:24
C. Giroux	RW	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	16:10	0:53
R. Greig	C	1	0	1	1	1	1	+1	0	15:11	0:04
B. Tkachuk	LW	0	0	0	6	2	0	-2	2	18:42	3:12
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	18:03	0:41
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	16:20	0:04
D. Perron	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	15:21	1:16
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	8:27	0:00
S. Halliday	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	7:46	0:19
K. MacDermid	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	2:40	0:00
T. Chabot	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	23:23	0:49
J. Sanderson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	22:25	3:25
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	19:33	0:00
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	19:04	0:13
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:47	0:00
N. Matinpalo	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	15:17	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	25	22	3	.880	60:31	OT loss
L. Meriläinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BUF

Line 1A. Tuch14:21N. Ostlund15:01J. Norris11:53

Line 2T. Thompson15:03P. Krebs13:59J. Doan12:39

Line 3B. Malenstyn13:43J. Dunne13:13J. Greenway11:50

Line 4R. McLeod11:55Z. Benson11:00J. Quinn11:10

Pair 1M. Samuelsson21:44R. Dahlin20:28

Pair 2O. Power20:59M. Kesselring12:04

Pair 3B. Byram19:55Z. Metsa8:38

OTT

Line 1T. Stützle16:17F. Zetterlund17:22B. Tkachuk15:08

Line 2C. Giroux14:52M. Amadio14:41R. Greig13:01

Line 3D. Perron14:05D. Batherson16:14D. Cozens15:03

Line 4N. Cousins8:27S. Halliday7:27K. MacDermid2:40

Pair 1T. Chabot20:30J. Spence18:40

Pair 2J. Sanderson16:54A. Zub16:45

Pair 3N. Jensen16:24N. Matinpalo15:05

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamDylan Cozens OTT Faces BUF, his team until Mar 20251 A, 2 SOG
Old teamJosh Norris BUF Faces OTT, his team until Mar 20250 SOG
HometownJack Quinn BUF Plays in his hometown1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BUF 2.8, OTT 3.2	BUF 3, OTT 2
Total goals	6.1	5
Shots on goal	BUF 25.4, OTT 29.3	BUF 25, OTT 26
Win chance	OTT 56%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	4.1	6	0.86	0	33%	0
BUF T. Thompson	3.3	2	0.96	0	40%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.5	1	0.75	0	15%	0
BUF J. Doan	2.4	1	0.65	0	23%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.4	3	0.78	1	29%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	2.4	1	0.71	0	13%	0
OTT D. Cozens	2.3	2	0.67	1	23%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.3	3	0.97	1	29%	1
OTT D. Batherson	2.3	4	0.87	1	28%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	2.2	2	0.50	0	21%	0
OTT T. Chabot	1.9	1	0.61	0	12%	0
BUF J. Norris	1.8	0	0.65	0	29%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.7	0	0.72	1	23%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.7	2	0.52	0	16%	0
OTT D. Perron	1.6	2	0.57	0	22%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.6	1	0.40	1	15%	1
OTT M. Amadio	1.6	2	0.49	0	22%	0
BUF J. Quinn	1.6	1	0.50	0	18%	0
BUF O. Power	1.4	1	0.35	0	6%	0
BUF M. Kesselring	1.3	2	0.23	0	5%	0
OTT J. Spence	1.3	0	0.43	0	6%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.3	1	0.56	1	19%	0
OTT S. Halliday	1.2	0	0.24	0	7%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.2	0	0.33	0	10%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.2	2	0.28	1	6%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.2	2	0.39	3	11%	2
OTT A. Zub	1.1	0	0.32	0	7%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.1	0	0.26	0	11%	0
BUF N. Ostlund	1.0	2	0.28	1	15%	1
BUF B. Malenstyn	1.0	0	0.16	0	7%	0
OTT N. Matinpalo	0.9	2	0.16	0	3%	0
BUF J. Greenway	0.9	4	0.21	1	9%	0
BUF J. Dunne	0.7	1	0.14	1	7%	0
OTT N. Jensen	0.7	0	0.22	0	4%	0
BUF Z. Metsa	0.6	0	0.08	0	3%	0
OTT K. MacDermid	0.3	0	0.06	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.