Game Recap: BUF 2, PHI 5, December 3, 2025

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Game Recap

BUF2

FinalWed, Dec 3, 2025Every game that night

PHI5

PHI beat BUF 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 5.24 expected goals to 3.35. N. Cates led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Doan had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. S. Ersson stopped 27 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BUF	1	1	0	2
PHI	3	2	0	5

1st 4:08BUFJ. ZuckerPP0.21 xG
1st 8:26PHIT. KonecnyPP0.05 xG
1st 9:04PHIT. ZegrasPP0.10 xG
1st 9:25PHIB. Brink0.11 xG
2nd 1:45PHIN. Cates0.30 xG
2nd 11:48BUFB. Byram0.11 xG
2nd 12:43PHIO. Tippett0.36 xG

Team Stats

BUFPHI

29Shots on goal35

3.35Expected goals5.24

65Shot attempts67

225v5 shots on goal22

1/6Power play2/5

16Hits18

20Blocked shots15

23Penalty minutes14

12Giveaways9

3Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 3.35 xGPHI 5.24 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF29 on goal, 2 scored

PHI34 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Tuch	RW	0	1	1	2	0	4	+1	0	19:31	1:54
J. Zucker	LW	1	0	1	3	2	0	-1	0	18:12	7:51
J. Norris	C	0	1	1	2	2	0	-2	0	17:35	7:39
J. Doan	RW	0	1	1	6	0	0	0	0	16:32	7:46
J. Quinn	RW	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	15:26	1:48
R. McLeod	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	20:13	2:02
T. Thompson	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	2	17:34	7:52
Z. Benson	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	13:57	1:10
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	0	2	3	-1	0	11:09	0:00
N. Ostlund	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:34	0:00
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	1	4	1	-1	2	9:31	0:00
J. Dunne	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	7:32	0:00
B. Byram	D	1	0	1	2	0	3	0	0	23:49	3:18
O. Power	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	0	21:34	1:44
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	-2	0	20:57	0:03
C. Timmins	D	0	0	0	0	0	5	-2	2	16:56	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	15	16:34	5:13
J. Bryson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	11:06	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Ellis	35	30	5	.857	60:00	Loss
A. Lyon	0	0	0	–	0:00

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Cates	LW	1	1	2	5	0	4	+2	0	17:43	3:19
T. Konecny	RW	1	1	2	2	2	0	0	0	16:35	5:41
M. Michkov	RW	0	2	2	2	0	0	+1	4	15:37	5:59
B. Brink	RW	1	1	2	3	0	0	+2	0	13:52	3:22
S. Couturier	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	+2	0	20:27	3:38
O. Tippett	RW	1	0	1	5	2	1	0	0	16:34	5:56
T. Zegras	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	-1	0	14:06	5:48
N. Grebenkin	RW	0	1	1	0	5	1	+1	0	12:02	0:00
C. Dvorak	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	13:16	0:00
R. Abols	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	12:28	0:00
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	12:17	0:00
N. Deslauriers	LW	0	0	0	2	5	0	0	2	9:32	0:00
T. Sanheim	D	0	2	2	2	0	2	-1	2	23:42	6:29
J. Drysdale	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+3	0	23:05	3:53
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	21:03	0:00
E. Andrae	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	+3	0	18:47	2:57
E. Zamula	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	17:32	0:00
C. York	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	2	10:37	0:08

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Ersson	29	27	2	.931	59:57	Win
D. Vladar	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BUF

Line 1R. McLeod12:24J. Quinn13:12J. Zucker10:21

Line 2T. Thompson9:27J. Norris9:46Z. Benson10:17

Line 3A. Tuch11:37J. Doan8:46N. Ostlund9:57

Line 4B. Malenstyn7:53P. Krebs8:33J. Dunne7:07

Pair 1J. Bryson11:06O. Power15:05

Pair 2B. Byram16:19R. Dahlin11:21

Pair 3C. Timmins11:40M. Samuelsson13:59

PHI

Line 1S. Couturier10:54M. Michkov9:38O. Tippett10:38

Line 2G. Hathaway10:01R. Abols10:51N. Deslauriers9:32

Line 3N. Grebenkin12:02B. Brink9:52N. Cates9:06

Line 4C. Dvorak9:38T. Zegras8:18T. Konecny8:37

Pair 1E. Andrae14:27J. Drysdale17:12

Pair 2N. Seeler15:10E. Zamula13:29

Pair 3T. Sanheim12:02C. York7:23

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BUF 3.2, PHI 3.0	BUF 2, PHI 5
Total goals	6.2	7
Shots on goal	BUF 26.3, PHI 27.5	BUF 29, PHI 35
Win chance	BUF 52%	PHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	2.9	2	0.89	0	37%	0
PHI O. Tippett	2.7	5	0.70	1	28%	1
BUF R. Dahlin	2.4	1	0.82	0	17%	0
PHI M. Michkov	2.3	2	0.71	2	25%	0
PHI T. Zegras	2.2	4	0.79	1	25%	1
PHI T. Konecny	2.2	2	0.88	2	28%	1
BUF J. Doan	2.0	6	0.56	1	20%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.0	2	0.75	1	28%	0
BUF J. Zucker	2.0	3	0.64	1	24%	1
BUF J. Quinn	1.9	1	0.66	1	23%	0
PHI S. Couturier	1.8	1	0.58	1	17%	0
BUF J. Norris	1.7	2	0.63	1	30%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.7	5	0.56	2	20%	1
BUF Z. Benson	1.6	2	0.53	0	15%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.6	2	0.46	2	11%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.5	3	0.49	2	17%	1
PHI C. Dvorak	1.5	2	0.53	0	19%	0
BUF O. Power	1.3	3	0.41	0	8%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.3	0	0.60	0	20%	0
PHI E. Andrae	1.2	3	0.26	0	5%	0
PHI R. Abols	1.2	1	0.20	0	11%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.2	3	0.31	0	7%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.2	2	0.46	1	12%	1
PHI N. Seeler	1.1	0	0.23	0	4%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.1	0	0.36	1	8%	0
PHI C. York	1.1	1	0.41	0	9%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	1.1	0	0.20	0	8%	0
BUF N. Ostlund	1.0	0	0.28	0	13%	0
BUF C. Timmins	1.0	0	0.30	0	5%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.0	1	0.30	0	9%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	0.9	1	0.23	0	12%	0
PHI N. Deslauriers	0.8	2	0.12	0	7%	0
BUF J. Dunne	0.7	1	0.15	0	8%	0
PHI E. Zamula	0.6	1	0.21	0	4%	0
PHI N. Grebenkin	0.6	0	0.20	1	10%	0
BUF J. Bryson	0.3	0	0.14	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.