PIT beat BUF 6-5 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 5.02 expected goals to 2.62. PIT outshot BUF 43 to 33. E. Malkin led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). E. Malkin had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. J. Blomqvist stopped 26 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| PIT | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
- 1st 0:43BUFT. Thompson0.12 xG
- 1st 3:08BUFJ. Greenway0.08 xG
- 1st 11:01PITB. RustPP0.05 xG
- 1st 11:33BUFJ. Peterka0.15 xG
- 2nd 9:12PITD. O'ConnorSH0.11 xG
- 2nd 15:20PITJ. Puljujarvi0.18 xG
- 3rd 3:26PITE. Malkin0.53 xG
- 3rd 10:16BUFJ. Peterka0.13 xG
- 3rd 10:56BUFR. McLeod0.05 xG
- 3rd 19:14PITR. Rakell0.59 xG
- OT 1:38PITS. CrosbyPP0.15 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BUF 2.62 xGPIT 5.02 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 2 | 19:28 | 0:00 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 18:48 | 0:00 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 15:27 | 0:48 |
| J. Greenway | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:37 | 0:00 |
| T. Thompson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 18:34 | 1:23 |
| R. McLeod | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:45 | 0:00 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:51 | 1:23 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:27 | 0:35 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 10:28 | 0:00 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:44 | 0:00 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8:59 | 0:00 |
| S. Lafferty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:40 | 0:00 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:51 | 0:00 |
| H. Jokiharju | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 21:09 | 0:00 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 24:58 | 1:23 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:27 | 0:00 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:08 | 0:48 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:32 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Luukkonen | 43 | 37 | 6 | .860 | 61:38 | OT loss |
| D. Levi | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Malkin | C | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:51 | 5:33 |
| S. Crosby | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:02 | 5:13 |
| B. Rust | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:05 | 4:13 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:06 | 0:00 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:32 | 1:15 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:58 | 0:35 |
| J. Puljujarvi | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:22 | 1:39 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:14 | 0:00 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:17 | 1:31 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:09 | 0:00 |
| K. Hayes | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:09 | 1:27 |
| C. Glass | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:18 | 0:00 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 26:37 | 5:40 |
| K. Letang | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:41 | 5:17 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 21:29 | 0:39 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 20:55 | 1:50 |
| J. St. Ivany | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:42 | 0:00 |
| R. Graves | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:27 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Jarry | 5 | 2 | 3 | .400 | 11:33 | |
| J. Blomqvist | 28 | 26 | 2 | .929 | 49:00 | Win |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BUF 3.1, PIT 3.3 | BUF 5, PIT 6 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 11 |
| Shots on goal | BUF 30.1, PIT 32.0 | BUF 33, PIT 43 |
| Win chance | PIT 53% | PIT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.2 | 3 | 0.89 | 1 | 36% | 1 |
| PIT B. Rust | 3.0 | 6 | 0.84 | 2 | 31% | 1 |
| PIT S. Crosby | 3.0 | 3 | 1.13 | 3 | 35% | 1 |
| BUF D. Cozens | 2.6 | 3 | 0.67 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.6 | 5 | 0.91 | 2 | 30% | 0 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.4 | 4 | 0.56 | 2 | 23% | 2 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.3 | 5 | 0.69 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 2.3 | 7 | 0.90 | 4 | 28% | 1 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.2 | 2 | 0.75 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.1 | 1 | 0.49 | 2 | 20% | 0 |
| PIT M. Bunting | 2.1 | 2 | 0.67 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.1 | 3 | 0.56 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| PIT D. O'Connor | 2.0 | 1 | 0.43 | 2 | 19% | 1 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.8 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| PIT A. Beauvillier | 1.8 | 3 | 0.39 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PIT K. Letang | 1.8 | 2 | 0.62 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PIT L. Eller | 1.7 | 1 | 0.37 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| BUF J. Greenway | 1.7 | 2 | 0.40 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| PIT K. Hayes | 1.6 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PIT C. Glass | 1.5 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.5 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PIT J. Puljujarvi | 1.4 | 3 | 0.24 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.3 | 3 | 0.41 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PIT M. Pettersson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.2 | 2 | 0.33 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.2 | 0 | 0.46 | 2 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT M. Grzelcyk | 1.1 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BUF H. Jokiharju | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT R. Graves | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 0.9 | 2 | 0.20 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 0.9 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF S. Lafferty | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PIT J. Ivany | 0.7 | 2 | 0.13 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.