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Game Recap
BUF3
SEA1
BUF beat SEA 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.56 expected goals to 2.80. A. Tuch led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). B. Meyers had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.8. A. Lyon stopped 23 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| SEA | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 17:09BUFN. Ostlund0.09 xG
- 2nd 10:08BUFT. Thompson0.22 xG
- 2nd 12:24SEAC. StephensonPP0.06 xG
- 3rd 19:14BUFZ. BensonEN0.82 xG
Team Stats
BUFSEA
23Shots on goal24
3.56Expected goals2.80
54Shot attempts61
185v5 shots on goal20
0/2Power play1/3
17Hits23
13Blocked shots11
6Penalty minutes4
17Giveaways12
5Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BUF 3.56 xGSEA 2.80 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:07 | 0:50 |
| T. Thompson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:35 | 3:10 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:03 | 3:05 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:00 | 0:53 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:48 | 0:00 |
| J. Norris | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:46 | 3:08 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:31 | 0:52 |
| N. Ostlund | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:04 | 0:00 |
| J. Doan | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:04 | 3:12 |
| T. Kozak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:23 | 0:00 |
| J. Greenway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:47 | 0:00 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:34 | 0:00 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | +2 | 0 | 26:30 | 0:00 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 23:32 | 3:07 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:33 | 0:48 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:19 | 0:55 |
| C. Timmins | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17:10 | 0:00 |
| J. Bryson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:08 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Lyon | 24 | 23 | 1 | .958 | 60:00 | Win |
| U. Luukkonen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Stephenson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:26 | 2:33 |
| J. Eberle | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:49 | 2:34 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:39 | 1:28 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:30 | 2:33 |
| M. Beniers | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:18 | 2:38 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:19 | 1:33 |
| S. Wright | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:15 | 1:32 |
| R. Winterton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:01 | 0:00 |
| B. Meyers | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 11:03 | 0:00 |
| J. Nyman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:46 | 1:33 |
| T. Kartye | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 8:13 | 0:00 |
| J. Melanson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:47 | 0:00 |
| V. Dunn | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 21:15 | 2:32 |
| B. Montour | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:32 | 1:34 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 18:53 | 0:00 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 17:52 | 0:00 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:38 | 0:00 |
| R. Evans | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 17:12 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Daccord | 22 | 20 | 2 | .909 | 59:32 | Loss |
| P. Grubauer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
BUF
Line 1T. Thompson17:25P. Krebs15:48J. Doan15:52
Line 3J. Norris12:38N. Ostlund12:04A. Tuch14:21
Line 4J. Greenway8:37T. Kozak9:21B. Malenstyn8:13
Pair 1M. Samuelsson22:36R. Dahlin19:42
Pair 2C. Timmins15:43B. Byram17:57
SEA
Line 1J. Eberle15:47M. Beniers15:12E. Tolvanen15:28
Line 2C. Stephenson15:21F. Gaudreau16:38K. Kakko15:46
Line 3S. Wright13:43R. Winterton10:36J. Nyman9:13
Line 4T. Kartye8:13J. Melanson7:47B. Meyers10:10
Pair 1A. Larsson16:41V. Dunn18:15
Pair 2B. Montour20:04R. Lindgren15:28
Pair 3J. Oleksiak16:12R. Evans16:36
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BUF 3.0, SEA 3.2 | BUF 3, SEA 1 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | BUF 27.1, SEA 28.0 | BUF 23, SEA 24 |
| Win chance | SEA 52% | BUF won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.2 | 4 | 0.93 | 1 | 38% | 1 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.7 | 1 | 0.59 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.5 | 5 | 0.77 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.4 | 3 | 0.80 | 2 | 30% | 0 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 2.3 | 1 | 0.74 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| BUF J. Doan | 2.3 | 1 | 0.62 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| SEA J. Eberle | 2.3 | 2 | 0.76 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.9 | 3 | 0.68 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.9 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.8 | 2 | 0.57 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| BUF J. Norris | 1.8 | 1 | 0.64 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.7 | 2 | 0.47 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.5 | 0 | 0.64 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.4 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.4 | 2 | 0.77 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| SEA J. Nyman | 1.4 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.4 | 2 | 0.54 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| SEA K. Kakko | 1.3 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.2 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 1.2 | 1 | 0.32 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| SEA F. Gaudreau | 1.1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BUF C. Timmins | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF J. Greenway | 1.1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SEA R. Winterton | 1.0 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 1.0 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF N. Ostlund | 0.9 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| SEA R. Lindgren | 0.9 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SEA T. Kartye | 0.9 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF T. Kozak | 0.8 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| SEA B. Meyers | 0.8 | 4 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SEA R. Evans | 0.8 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bryson | 0.3 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.