Game Recap: BUF 4, STL 2, December 29, 2025

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Game Recap

BUF4

FinalMon, Dec 29, 2025Every game that night

STL2

BUF beat STL 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.43 expected goals to 1.53. BUF outshot STL 34 to 18. Z. Benson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. A. Lyon stopped 16 of 18.

Team Stats

BUFSTL

34Shots on goal18

3.43Expected goals1.53

69Shot attempts39

265v5 shots on goal16

0/3Power play0/1

18Hits27

11Blocked shots18

2Penalty minutes6

12Giveaways15

5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 3.43 xGSTL 1.53 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF33 on goal, 3 scored

STL18 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. McLeod	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	0	17:09	1:49
J. Norris	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	16:26	4:13
Z. Benson	LW	1	0	1	5	0	0	+1	0	15:39	2:55
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	1	1	1	5	2	+1	0	14:35	0:00
P. Krebs	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	14:12	0:00
J. Quinn	RW	0	1	1	4	1	0	+1	0	14:02	0:56
A. Tuch	RW	1	0	1	2	0	2	0	0	13:54	1:05
N. Ostlund	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	12:57	0:00
T. Thompson	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	19:12	5:01
J. Doan	RW	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	17:01	4:58
J. Dunne	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	13:08	0:00
J. Greenway	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	12:32	0:00
M. Samuelsson	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	-1	0	22:14	0:43
O. Power	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	23:42	1:39
R. Dahlin	D	0	0	0	5	1	0	-1	0	23:40	5:01
B. Byram	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+2	0	22:21	1:40
M. Kesselring	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	15:33	0:00
Z. Metsa	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+2	2	10:18	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Lyon	18	16	2	.889	59:25	Win
U. Luukkonen	0	0	0	–	0:00

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Schenn	C	1	0	1	2	3	2	0	0	15:51	0:53
O. Stenberg	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	14:02	0:00
J. Snuggerud	RW	1	0	1	3	4	1	0	0	13:24	1:08
J. Kyrou	RW	0	1	1	0	0	1	-1	0	13:12	1:08
R. Fabbri	C	0	1	1	2	4	1	0	0	11:52	0:00
R. Thomas	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	18:28	1:07
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	2	17:01	1:10
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	2	2	4	0	0	15:58	0:00
O. Sundqvist	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:41	0:52
J. Neighbours	LW	0	0	0	1	6	1	-2	0	15:33	0:50
M. Joseph	RW	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	14:39	0:00
D. Dvorsky	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:12	0:52
C. Parayko	D	0	1	1	0	3	2	+1	0	24:58	0:00
P. Broberg	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	25:26	0:00
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	4	1	1	0	2	23:27	1:06
C. Fowler	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-4	2	22:25	0:54
T. Tucker	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	13:30	0:00
L. Mailloux	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-3	0	8:52	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Hofer	33	30	3	.909	59:29	Loss
J. Binnington	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BUF

Line 1P. Krebs13:41J. Doan12:03T. Thompson14:11

Line 2B. Malenstyn12:51J. Dunne12:33J. Greenway11:35

Line 3R. McLeod13:24J. Quinn13:06Z. Benson12:44

Line 4A. Tuch11:29N. Ostlund12:26J. Norris11:55

Pair 1M. Samuelsson20:10R. Dahlin18:04

Pair 2O. Power20:18M. Kesselring14:06

Pair 3B. Byram19:36Z. Metsa10:18

STL

Line 1P. Buchnevich13:53R. Thomas14:47J. Neighbours14:12

Line 2B. Schenn14:20O. Stenberg12:27J. Kyrou11:29

Line 3O. Sundqvist11:52A. Toropchenko12:25M. Joseph13:43

Line 4R. Fabbri11:52D. Dvorsky9:20J. Snuggerud11:45

Pair 1P. Broberg20:38C. Parayko20:28

Pair 2J. Faulk20:23T. Tucker12:22

Pair 3C. Fowler19:42L. Mailloux8:52

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BUF 3.0, STL 3.1	BUF 4, STL 2
Total goals	6.0	6
Shots on goal	BUF 26.6, STL 26.4	BUF 34, STL 18
Win chance	STL 52%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	3.1	3	0.88	0	38%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.5	5	0.77	0	15%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.4	2	0.76	1	29%	1
STL J. Kyrou	2.3	0	0.67	1	29%	0
BUF J. Doan	2.2	3	0.57	0	21%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	2.0	1	0.80	0	27%	0
STL R. Thomas	1.8	1	1.05	0	26%	0
STL J. Faulk	1.8	4	0.53	0	12%	0
STL J. Snuggerud	1.7	3	0.48	1	18%	1
BUF O. Power	1.6	1	0.41	0	7%	0
BUF J. Norris	1.6	0	0.60	1	28%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.6	5	0.46	1	14%	1
BUF J. Quinn	1.5	4	0.51	1	18%	0
STL B. Schenn	1.5	2	0.56	1	21%	1
STL J. Neighbours	1.5	1	0.63	0	26%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.5	0	0.40	1	10%	0
BUF M. Kesselring	1.4	1	0.23	0	5%	0
STL D. Dvorsky	1.4	0	0.31	0	16%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.4	1	0.41	0	9%	0
STL R. Fabbri	1.4	2	0.39	1	19%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.3	0	0.48	0	12%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.3	1	0.50	0	8%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.3	2	0.34	1	7%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.3	3	0.56	1	19%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.2	2	0.26	0	12%	0
BUF N. Ostlund	1.2	1	0.32	1	17%	1
STL L. Mailloux	1.2	0	0.21	0	7%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.2	2	0.34	1	11%	1
STL O. Stenberg	1.2	0	0.45	1	13%	0
STL T. Tucker	1.1	0	0.21	0	6%	0
STL M. Joseph	1.1	0	0.31	0	11%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	1.0	1	0.17	1	8%	0
BUF J. Greenway	1.0	1	0.22	0	9%	0
STL O. Sundqvist	0.9	0	0.34	0	11%	0
BUF J. Dunne	0.9	0	0.17	0	8%	0
BUF Z. Metsa	0.5	0	0.08	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.