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Game Recap
BUF6
Final/OTThu, Feb 23, 2023Every game that night
TBL5

BUF beat TBL 6-5 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.51 expected goals to 5.70. TBL outshot BUF 41 to 23. B. Point led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). E. Comrie stopped 36 of 41.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
BUF13116
TBL11305
  1. 1st 2:19TBLS. Stamkos0.12 xG
  2. 1st 11:41BUFZ. Girgensons0.10 xG
  3. 2nd 9:36BUFT. ThompsonPP0.07 xG
  4. 2nd 12:20BUFT. Thompson0.07 xG
  5. 2nd 12:36TBLV. Hedman0.06 xG
  6. 2nd 13:25BUFJ. Quinn0.13 xG
  7. 3rd 5:48TBLB. Point0.08 xG
  8. 3rd 6:18BUFT. Thompson0.18 xG
  9. 3rd 8:33TBLA. Cirelli0.39 xG
  10. 3rd 14:54TBLR. ColtonPP0.11 xG
  11. OT 1:41BUFI. LyubushkinSH0.09 xG

Team Stats

BUFTBL
23Shots on goal41
2.51Expected goals5.70
49Shot attempts68
195v5 shots on goal33
1/2Power play1/3
42Hits42
9Blocked shots13
4Penalty minutes4
3Giveaways11
5Takeaways9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 2.51 xGTBL 5.70 xGGoal

01234561st2nd3rdOTTBL goal, 2:19BUF goal, 11:41BUF goal, 9:36BUF goal, 12:20TBL goal, 12:36BUF goal, 13:25TBL goal, 5:48BUF goal, 6:18TBL goal, 8:33TBL goal, 14:54BUF goal, 1:41

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF23 on goal, 6 scored
TBL41 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
T. ThompsonC303430+1017:162:10
J. SkinnerLW022100+1016:462:17
Z. GirgensonsC1012510017:450:00
P. KrebsC011060+1015:210:28
T. JostC0112210014:250:00
C. MittelstadtC011110+1013:160:36
J. QuinnRW101110+1012:570:00
A. TuchRW000011+2019:032:09
K. OkposoRW0000200015:250:35
D. CozensC000230-2015:070:23
V. OlofssonLW000100-2013:042:22
J. PeterkaRW000110-2010:110:00
R. DahlinD022161+1027:032:09
I. LyubushkinD101241+1012:260:00
M. SamuelssonD000133+1225:040:00
O. PowerD000011+1024:310:36
H. JokiharjuD0004100221:540:00
J. BrysonD000020-2010:120:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
E. Comrie41365.87861:41Win
U. Luukkonen000–0:00

TBL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
B. PointC1342210021:364:13
S. StamkosC112520-2019:224:13
N. KucherovRW011600-2020:273:44
A. CirelliC101101-1018:542:20
B. HagelLW0112200218:361:45
N. PaulLW011130+1214:020:45
R. ColtonC101450+1013:151:14
P. MaroonLW011120+1011:150:00
A. KillornLW000021+1016:460:45
C. PerryRW000100-1011:480:45
P. BellemareLW000311-1010:430:08
V. NamestnikovC000220-1010:310:00
V. HedmanD112734+1026:032:20
E. CernakD011241+1019:340:00
M. SergachevD000250-2025:480:57
I. ColeD000043-1016:510:00
N. PerbixD000030+1015:150:00
H. FleuryD0002210013:130:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Vasilevskiy23176.73961:41OT loss
B. Elliott000–0:00

Storylines That Played Out

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.