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Game Recap
BUF5
TBL6
TBL beat BUF 6-5, with the chances close: 3.03 expected goals to 2.81. J. Guentzel scored three for TBL. R. Dahlin had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 28 of 33.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| TBL | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
- 1st 5:01TBLN. Paul0.02 xG
- 1st 5:17BUFR. Dahlin0.10 xG
- 1st 5:53TBLD. Raddysh0.01 xG
- 1st 8:20BUFA. Tuch0.15 xG
- 1st 17:09BUFP. Krebs0.19 xG
- 2nd 0:58TBLJ. Guentzel0.16 xG
- 2nd 9:35BUFT. ThompsonPP0.04 xG
- 2nd 12:40BUFJ. Peterka0.05 xG
- 2nd 17:43TBLJ. Guentzel0.15 xG
- 2nd 18:46TBLJ. GuentzelPP0.16 xG
- 3rd 1:40TBLO. Bjorkstrand0.67 xG
Team Stats
BUFTBL
33Shots on goal26
2.81Expected goals3.03
57Shot attempts48
305v5 shots on goal25
1/4Power play1/3
23Hits19
10Blocked shots12
8Penalty minutes10
14Giveaways12
6Takeaways1
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BUF 2.81 xGTBL 3.03 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:38 | 2:50 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 21:35 | 3:12 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 10:57 | 1:05 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:00 | 3:12 |
| T. Thompson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 19:19 | 3:08 |
| P. Krebs | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:47 | 0:05 |
| J.Kulich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:55 | 3:09 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:54 | 1:01 |
| S. Lafferty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 12:32 | 0:06 |
| J. Greenway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:16 | 0:00 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 9:43 | 0:00 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2:25 | 0:00 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 4 | 23:35 | 3:23 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 25:12 | 0:00 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:18 | 1:02 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 17:54 | 0:51 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:36 | 0:00 |
| J. Bryson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:55 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Luukkonen | 26 | 20 | 6 | .769 | 57:53 | Loss |
| J. Reimer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Guentzel | C | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:27 | 3:25 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 21:42 | 3:20 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:18 | 3:26 |
| N. Paul | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:42 | 1:11 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:47 | 1:13 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:45 | 3:20 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:53 | 1:51 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:02 | 0:00 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 17:46 | 0:37 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 11:07 | 0:00 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 10:49 | 0:00 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:42 | 0:00 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 24:47 | 3:21 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 25:41 | 1:16 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 22:10 | 0:00 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 22:53 | 0:00 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:01 | 0:00 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2:57 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 33 | 28 | 5 | .848 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BUF 2.9, TBL 3.6 | BUF 5, TBL 6 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 11 |
| Shots on goal | BUF 27.6, TBL 29.4 | BUF 33, TBL 26 |
| Win chance | TBL 61% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.3 | 1 | 1.67 | 2 | 38% | 0 |
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.1 | 5 | 0.81 | 1 | 35% | 1 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.8 | 3 | 1.07 | 3 | 38% | 3 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.7 | 1 | 1.14 | 1 | 42% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.6 | 1 | 1.02 | 2 | 33% | 0 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.5 | 2 | 0.67 | 2 | 25% | 1 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.5 | 5 | 0.69 | 2 | 16% | 1 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.4 | 4 | 0.70 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.2 | 0 | 0.92 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BUF D. Cozens | 2.1 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| BUF J.Kulich | 2.0 | 3 | 0.38 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| TBL O. Bjorkstrand | 1.9 | 2 | 0.65 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.9 | 2 | 0.68 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.8 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.7 | 2 | 0.54 | 2 | 23% | 1 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.5 | 4 | 0.36 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF J. Greenway | 1.4 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.4 | 2 | 0.50 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.4 | 3 | 0.45 | 2 | 7% | 1 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.3 | 0 | 0.21 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.2 | 2 | 0.29 | 2 | 12% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.2 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.2 | 0 | 0.40 | 2 | 17% | 0 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 1.2 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 1.1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.0 | 0 | 0.37 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 1.0 | 2 | 0.28 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 0.9 | 2 | 0.24 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| TBL J. Moser | 0.9 | 3 | 0.32 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.8 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF S. Lafferty | 0.8 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 0.8 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.6 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bryson | 0.4 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.