Game Recap: BUF 4, TBL 7, April 13, 2025

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Game Recap

BUF4

FinalSun, Apr 13, 2025Every game that night

TBL7

TBL beat BUF 7-4, and the chances backed it up: 5.95 expected goals to 2.66. N. Kucherov led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). J. Bernard-Docker had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.6. J. Johansson stopped 21 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BUF	2	0	2	4
TBL	1	4	2	7

1st 16:35TBLJ. Guentzel0.40 xG
1st 19:37BUFJ.Kulich0.30 xG
1st 19:52BUFC. Clifton0.26 xG
2nd 3:02TBLR. McDonagh0.03 xG
2nd 6:34TBLN. Kucherov0.54 xG
2nd 14:21TBLC. Geekie0.37 xG
2nd 16:45TBLE. Lilleberg0.02 xG
3rd 2:39TBLN. Kucherov0.19 xG
3rd 8:39BUFA. TuchPP0.13 xG
3rd 13:12TBLJ. GuentzelPP0.19 xG
3rd 18:23BUFS. Lafferty0.10 xG

Team Stats

BUFTBL

25Shots on goal31

2.66Expected goals5.95

53Shot attempts72

235v5 shots on goal26

1/2Power play1/2

16Hits13

9Blocked shots12

4Penalty minutes4

17Giveaways14

3Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 2.66 xGTBL 5.95 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF25 on goal, 4 scored

TBL30 on goal, 7 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Tuch	RW	1	0	1	1	1	1	-2	0	19:04	2:12
P. Krebs	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	-1	0	17:48	0:00
J. Peterka	RW	0	1	1	0	0	1	-1	2	16:37	2:15
T. Thompson	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	-1	0	15:43	2:08
J. Quinn	RW	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	14:41	1:02
J.Kulich	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	12:56	0:55
S. Lafferty	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	11:34	0:00
J. Zucker	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	16:22	2:14
R. McLeod	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	15:47	0:56
Z. Benson	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	0	15:22	0:00
N. Ostlund	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	12:44	0:58
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	11:45	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	0	2	2	4	1	0	0	0	24:11	1:51
C. Clifton	D	1	0	1	2	3	0	-1	0	19:07	0:00
B. Byram	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	21:59	1:19
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	21:46	0:00
J. Bryson	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	15:40	0:00
J. Bernard-Docker	D	0	0	0	4	0	1	-2	2	14:08	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Reimer	31	24	7	.774	60:00	Loss
U. Luukkonen	0	0	0	–	0:00

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Hagel	LW	0	3	3	1	1	1	+1	0	20:24	2:00
N. Kucherov	RW	2	1	3	4	0	0	+2	0	19:42	2:01
A. Cirelli	C	0	2	2	4	0	1	+1	0	20:59	1:30
J. Guentzel	C	2	0	2	4	1	0	+1	0	18:16	2:00
G. Goncalves	C	0	2	2	1	3	0	+1	0	15:51	0:45
Y. Gourde	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	+2	0	18:56	0:01
N. Paul	LW	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	13:16	0:45
C. Geekie	C	1	0	1	4	4	2	-1	0	12:40	0:00
M. Chaffee	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	10:38	0:00
B. Point	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	+2	0	18:18	2:01
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	9:25	0:00
V. Hedman	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	21:33	2:01
R. McDonagh	D	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	18:14	0:45
E. Lilleberg	D	1	0	1	1	1	1	+2	2	16:27	0:00
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	18:03	0:00
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	17:23	0:01
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+2	0	17:08	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:06	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Johansson	25	21	4	.840	60:00	Win
A. Vasilevskiy	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamZemgus Girgensons TBL Faces BUF, his team until Apr 20240 SOG
BirthdayRasmus Dahlin BUF Turns 25 that day2 A, 4 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BUF 2.9, TBL 4.0	BUF 4, TBL 7
Total goals	6.9	11
Shots on goal	BUF 26.8, TBL 29.7	BUF 25, TBL 31
Win chance	TBL 66%	TBL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TBL N. Kucherov	3.4	4	1.74	3	39%	2
BUF T. Thompson	3.0	3	0.76	1	35%	0
TBL J. Guentzel	3.0	4	1.16	2	41%	2
TBL B. Point	2.7	0	1.17	0	44%	0
TBL B. Hagel	2.6	1	1.06	3	33%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.5	4	0.64	2	16%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.3	1	0.66	1	27%	1
TBL V. Hedman	2.3	2	0.94	1	17%	0
BUF J. Peterka	2.2	0	0.60	1	23%	0
BUF J.Kulich	2.2	1	0.36	1	18%	1
BUF J. Zucker	2.1	2	0.53	0	21%	0
TBL N. Paul	2.0	3	0.59	1	26%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.9	4	0.72	2	26%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.7	0	0.36	0	13%	0
TBL Y. Gourde	1.6	3	0.59	1	18%	0
BUF J. Quinn	1.5	0	0.40	1	16%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.3	0	0.47	0	17%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	1.2	1	0.42	2	17%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.1	1	0.36	0	10%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.1	0	0.30	1	11%	0
TBL C. Geekie	1.1	4	0.28	1	13%	1
TBL D. Raddysh	1.1	0	0.38	0	6%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.1	0	0.18	0	10%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	1.0	1	0.41	1	5%	1
BUF C. Clifton	1.0	2	0.20	1	4%	1
TBL M. Chaffee	1.0	1	0.25	1	15%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	0.9	1	0.19	0	4%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.9	2	0.14	0	6%	0
TBL E. Cernak	0.9	1	0.27	0	4%	0
BUF S. Lafferty	0.9	3	0.16	1	9%	1
TBL J. Moser	0.8	0	0.28	0	6%	0
TBL N. Perbix	0.8	1	0.29	0	6%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.6	1	0.22	1	2%	1
BUF J. Bernard-Docker	0.6	4	0.14	0	4%	0
BUF N. Ostlund	0.6	1	0.16	0	9%	0
BUF J. Bryson	0.5	0	0.14	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.