Game Recap: BUF 3, TOR 4 (OT), October 25, 2025

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Game Recap

BUF3

Final/OTSat, Oct 25, 2025Every game that night

TOR4

TOR beat BUF 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.18 expected goals to 2.37. T. Thompson led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). C. Primeau stopped 23 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
BUF	1	1	1	0	3
TOR	1	1	1	1	4

1st 13:40BUFT. Thompson0.08 xG
1st 18:33TORN. Robertson0.12 xG
2nd 1:59TORM. Maccelli0.05 xG
2nd 14:23BUFB. Byram0.02 xG
3rd 7:06BUFT. ThompsonPP0.28 xG
3rd 13:10TORD. Joshua0.05 xG
OT 1:28TORJ. Tavares0.25 xG

Team Stats

BUFTOR

26Shots on goal23

2.37Expected goals2.18

56Shot attempts49

185v5 shots on goal17

1/4Power play0/3

20Hits25

15Blocked shots18

21Penalty minutes13

15Giveaways9

6Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 2.37 xGTOR 2.18 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF26 on goal, 3 scored

TOR22 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Thompson	C	2	0	2	5	0	0	0	0	18:35	4:29
R. McLeod	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	-2	0	17:47	0:11
J.Kulich	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	15:24	1:57
J. Zucker	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	14:54	4:31
Z. Benson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	19:50	4:35
J. Quinn	RW	0	0	0	3	2	1	-2	0	15:19	2:14
J. Doan	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	15:08	4:14
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	2	3	2	-1	0	15:04	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	2	6	1	0	0	14:19	0:00
A. Tuch	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	17	13:34	2:10
J. Dunne	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	12:14	0:00
N. Ostlund	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	8:39	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	23:42	4:16
M. Samuelsson	D	0	1	1	1	3	2	-1	2	22:43	0:01
C. Timmins	D	0	1	1	0	1	3	0	0	21:48	0:00
B. Byram	D	1	0	1	2	0	2	-1	0	18:21	2:19
O. Power	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	23:55	2:28
Z. Metsa	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	7:08	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
U. Luukkonen	23	19	4	.826	61:28	OT loss
A. Lyon	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Knies	LW	0	2	2	1	1	0	+2	0	22:26	3:59
J. Tavares	C	1	1	2	5	1	0	+2	0	17:23	3:50
A. Matthews	C	0	1	1	2	1	2	+1	0	23:24	3:44
M. Maccelli	LW	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	15:27	3:56
N. Robertson	LW	1	0	1	1	2	0	+1	0	14:54	0:57
D. Joshua	C	1	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	12:55	0:05
E. Cowan	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	10:58	1:07
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	17:52	1:58
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	1	1	3	+1	0	16:07	1:53
C. Jarnkrok	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	10:34	0:07
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	10:29	1:35
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	8:36	0:08
B. Carlo	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+2	0	22:19	0:00
J. McCabe	D	0	1	1	2	3	5	+1	7	19:30	0:09
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	0	5	1	+1	4	20:17	3:18
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	19:29	3:14
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	2	18:09	0:00
P. Myers	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	16:54	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Primeau	26	23	3	.885	61:28	Win
D. Hildeby	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BUF

Line 1T. Thompson13:07Z. Benson13:21J.Kulich13:20

Line 2P. Krebs14:53J. Dunne12:14B. Malenstyn12:14

Line 3R. McLeod12:58J. Doan10:54A. Tuch9:20

Line 4J. Zucker10:23J. Quinn10:10N. Ostlund8:39

Pair 1M. Samuelsson20:27R. Dahlin16:53

Pair 2C. Timmins18:33O. Power17:44

Pair 3B. Byram14:17Z. Metsa7:08

TOR

Line 1B. McMann15:54A. Matthews15:42N. Robertson13:57

Line 2J. Tavares13:00M. Knies15:00M. Maccelli11:31

Line 3D. Joshua11:42N. Roy11:26E. Cowan9:51

Line 4C. Jarnkrok7:19S. Lorentz7:12M. Domi8:54

Pair 1B. Carlo17:58J. McCabe16:26

Pair 2O. Ekman-Larsson16:05M. Rielly15:12

Pair 3P. Myers14:36S. Benoit14:50

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownOwen Power BUF Plays near home (born in Mississauga)2 SOG
HometownRyan McLeod BUF Plays near home (born in Mississauga)1 A, 0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BUF 3.1, TOR 3.5	BUF 3, TOR 4
Total goals	6.7	7
Shots on goal	BUF 27.9, TOR 28.8	BUF 26, TOR 23
Win chance	TOR 56%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	4.2	2	1.29	1	48%	0
BUF T. Thompson	3.2	5	0.89	2	37%	2
TOR J. Tavares	2.7	5	0.94	2	35%	1
BUF R. Dahlin	2.5	2	0.76	1	17%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.4	1	0.77	0	29%	0
TOR M. Knies	2.3	1	0.84	2	30%	0
BUF J.Kulich	2.2	1	0.44	1	21%	0
TOR B. McMann	2.1	1	0.49	0	23%	0
BUF J. Doan	2.1	0	0.48	0	17%	0
BUF Z. Benson	2.1	1	0.56	0	17%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.9	1	0.71	0	13%	0
BUF J. Zucker	1.8	1	0.50	1	19%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.6	1	0.36	1	18%	1
BUF J. Quinn	1.5	3	0.47	0	17%	0
BUF O. Power	1.5	2	0.39	0	7%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.5	0	0.47	0	9%	0
TOR M. Maccelli	1.5	2	0.49	1	15%	1
TOR M. Domi	1.5	2	0.50	0	14%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.4	0	0.57	1	19%	0
TOR P. Myers	1.4	1	0.18	0	6%	0
TOR E. Cowan	1.4	1	0.39	1	13%	0
TOR N. Roy	1.2	1	0.41	0	16%	0
BUF C. Timmins	1.2	0	0.31	1	5%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.2	2	0.43	1	11%	1
TOR B. Carlo	1.1	0	0.18	1	5%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.0	2	0.36	1	7%	0
TOR C. Jarnkrok	1.0	0	0.32	0	14%	0
TOR D. Joshua	1.0	1	0.34	1	16%	1
BUF P. Krebs	1.0	2	0.29	0	9%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	1.0	2	0.15	0	7%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	1.0	1	0.24	0	10%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.0	1	0.23	1	5%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.8	1	0.15	0	3%	0
BUF N. Ostlund	0.7	2	0.14	0	9%	0
BUF J. Dunne	0.6	1	0.10	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.