Game Recap: BUF 3, VAN 2, December 11, 2025

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Game Recap

BUF3

FinalThu, Dec 11, 2025Every game that night

VAN2

BUF beat VAN 3-2 despite fewer good chances: 1.67 expected goals to 3.44. VAN outshot BUF 32 to 15. T. Thompson led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Sasson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. A. Lyon stopped 30 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BUF	1	2	0	3
VAN	1	1	0	2

1st 7:36BUFR. Dahlin0.11 xG
1st 19:49VANK. SherwoodPP0.03 xG
2nd 6:15VANM. Sasson0.17 xG
2nd 9:12BUFT. Thompson0.09 xG
2nd 14:46BUFZ. BensonPP0.16 xG

Team Stats

BUFVAN

15Shots on goal32

1.67Expected goals3.44

37Shot attempts84

145v5 shots on goal25

1/2Power play1/3

13Hits22

26Blocked shots7

10Penalty minutes8

16Giveaways11

8Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 1.67 xGVAN 3.44 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF15 on goal, 3 scored

VAN32 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Thompson	C	1	1	2	5	0	2	+1	0	19:06	1:43
R. McLeod	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	20:52	1:46
J. Doan	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	18:45	1:53
Z. Benson	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	2	16:13	1:48
J. Quinn	RW	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	4	15:39	0:50
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	18:43	0:00
T. Kozak	C	0	0	0	1	3	5	0	0	16:45	0:00
J. Greenway	LW	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	16:01	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	0	4	1	-1	2	12:48	0:00
I. Rosen	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:42	0:49
J. Dunne	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	6:21	0:44
T. Kuntar	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	5:12	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	1	1	2	3	1	3	+2	0	24:51	1:48
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	26:32	0:04
C. Timmins	D	0	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	21:27	0:00
B. Byram	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	20:47	0:51
O. Power	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	19:46	0:49
J. Bryson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	5:02	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Lyon	32	30	2	.938	59:56	Win
U. Luukkonen	0	0	0	–	0:00

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Garland	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	-1	0	20:41	3:51
K. Sherwood	LW	1	0	1	2	2	0	-1	0	19:24	3:17
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	1	1	4	1	0	+1	0	16:16	4:28
M. Sasson	C	1	0	1	5	0	0	+1	0	14:46	0:03
B. Boeser	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	20:26	4:09
E. Kane	LW	0	0	0	4	2	0	-1	0	17:29	0:23
D. Kampf	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	14:07	0:00
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	13:11	0:26
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	2	12:56	0:00
A. Räty	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	11:40	0:48
L. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	10:51	0:01
A. Bains	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	9:20	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	1	1	3	0	0	-1	0	30:03	4:32
E. Pettersson	D	0	1	1	1	4	0	+1	0	13:11	0:00
F. Hronek	D	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	2	23:33	0:42
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	20:06	0:00
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	17:25	0:00
T. Willander	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	2	12:04	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Demko	15	12	3	.800	57:54	Loss
K. Lankinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BUF

Line 1P. Krebs16:58J. Doan15:44T. Thompson15:30

Line 2R. McLeod14:39J. Quinn13:25Z. Benson12:48

Line 3J. Greenway13:29T. Kozak14:13I. Rosen7:53

Line 4B. Malenstyn10:27J. Dunne5:37T. Kuntar5:12

Pair 1M. Samuelsson21:16R. Dahlin20:53

Pair 2C. Timmins17:26B. Byram17:10

Pair 3O. Power15:43J. Bryson5:02

VAN

Line 1E. Kane15:10K. Sherwood13:03D. O'Connor12:11

Line 2B. Boeser13:56C. Garland14:30D. Kampf12:36

Line 3M. Sasson13:01J. DeBrusk9:44L. Karlsson9:58

Line 4A. Räty10:52A. Bains9:20N. Hoglander11:30

Pair 1Q. Hughes22:05F. Hronek19:01

Pair 2T. Myers17:21E. Pettersson12:30

Pair 3M. Pettersson14:33T. Willander12:04

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownZach Benson BUF Plays near home (born in Chilliwack)1 G, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BUF 3.1, VAN 3.3	BUF 3, VAN 2
Total goals	6.4	5
Shots on goal	BUF 27.6, VAN 27.9	BUF 15, VAN 32
Win chance	VAN 53%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	3.2	5	0.95	2	38%	1
VAN Q. Hughes	2.9	3	1.19	1	17%	0
VAN C. Garland	2.7	2	0.81	1	28%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.5	4	0.67	1	30%	0
VAN B. Boeser	2.5	1	0.86	0	34%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.4	3	0.78	2	17%	1
VAN E. Kane	2.4	4	0.58	0	27%	0
BUF J. Doan	2.3	1	0.61	1	21%	0
VAN K. Sherwood	2.2	2	0.64	1	26%	1
BUF J. Quinn	1.8	2	0.59	1	20%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.7	1	0.48	1	13%	1
VAN L. Karlsson	1.5	1	0.38	0	16%	0
VAN N. Hoglander	1.5	1	0.48	0	20%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.5	2	0.56	0	8%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.5	0	0.64	1	20%	0
BUF O. Power	1.4	1	0.38	0	7%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	1.3	2	0.36	0	15%	0
BUF I. Rosen	1.2	0	0.37	0	13%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.2	0	0.29	0	7%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.2	0	0.43	0	12%	0
VAN T. Myers	1.2	1	0.32	0	5%	0
VAN D. Kampf	1.1	1	0.31	0	12%	0
VAN A. Räty	1.1	0	0.41	0	16%	0
VAN M. Sasson	1.1	5	0.29	1	15%	1
BUF P. Krebs	1.1	1	0.31	0	9%	0
BUF C. Timmins	1.0	0	0.28	0	4%	0
BUF J. Greenway	1.0	0	0.24	0	10%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	1.0	0	0.18	0	7%	0
VAN M. Pettersson	0.9	1	0.34	0	5%	0
VAN T. Willander	0.8	1	0.37	0	5%	0
BUF T. Kozak	0.8	1	0.24	0	12%	0
BUF J. Dunne	0.7	0	0.14	0	7%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	0.7	1	0.14	1	4%	0
VAN A. Bains	0.6	0	0.15	0	7%	0
BUF J. Bryson	0.3	0	0.11	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.